I have already made several manual changes to the poll, based on knowledge of some computer biases that we want to knock out of the system over the offseason. But fortunately, the computer already had TCU ranked above Texas, which saves me some grief. Here is the draft, with discussion and numbers to follow.
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Rank | Team | Delta |
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1 | Alabama |
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2 | TCU | |
3 | Texas |
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4 | Boise State |
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5 | Cincinnati |
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6 | Florida |
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7 | Georgia Tech |
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8 | Oregon |
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9 | Ohio State |
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10 | Virginia Tech | |
11 | Brigham Young |
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12 | Iowa | |
13 | Penn State |
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14 | Miami (Florida) |
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15 | Central Michigan |
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16 | Pittsburgh |
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17 | Nebraska |
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18 | LSU |
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19 | West Virginia |
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20 | Wisconsin |
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21 | Arizona | |
22 | Oklahoma State |
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23 | Oregon State |
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24 | North Carolina |
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25 | Utah |
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Last week's ballot |
Dropped Out: Southern Cal (#22).
Notes:
- Florida was actually ranked #2 by the computers. I'm putting them behind the undefeateds, though. Any problems with that?
- Penn State was sky-high again. They're put behind Iowa (head-to-head).
- Georgia Tech was low, thanks to being an offense-only team that still wins like crazy. They're bumped up.
- Oregon got the Georgia Tech treatment.
- Brigham Young - should they bump down a touch? They're a flaky team, but so is Iowa.
- Central Michigan - any thoughts?
- Oklahoma again was manually bumped out. (FWIW, Tennessee comes in at #29 with the same record.)
- Arizona didn't move because they were manually bumped last week. Is beating USC worth bumping them?
Data:
Here it is in Excel 2003 and Excel 2007 form. Static data is in this table:
Rank | Team | WL | SOS | PED | RD | 3DO | TD | PEO | OPPG | TO | 3DD | SCORE |
1 | Alabama | 2.061 | 1.160 | 2.226 | 1.735 | 0.146 | 2.250 | 0.695 | 2.177 | 0.625 | 1.752 | 166.502 |
2 | Florida | 1.726 | 0.922 | 1.925 | 1.151 | 1.590 | 2.043 | 1.903 | 2.095 | 1.127 | 1.607 | 161.202 |
3 | TCU | 2.061 | -0.523 | 2.139 | 1.671 | 0.691 | 2.403 | 1.978 | 1.961 | 1.595 | 2.348 | 160.236 |
4 | Texas | 2.061 | 0.401 | 1.493 | 2.124 | 1.080 | 2.079 | 0.869 | 1.545 | 0.951 | 2.166 | 159.688 |
5 | Penn St. | 1.335 | -0.512 | 1.328 | 1.340 | 1.693 | 1.608 | 0.916 | 2.050 | 0.602 | 1.230 | 113.899 |
6 | Boise St. | 2.061 | -1.048 | 1.359 | 0.529 | -0.230 | 1.199 | 2.103 | 1.158 | 1.444 | 1.230 | 112.956 |
7 | Cincinnati | 2.061 | -0.021 | 0.432 | 0.180 | 0.465 | 0.280 | 2.221 | 0.693 | 1.511 | 0.009 | 108.746 |
8 | Ohio St. | 1.335 | 0.017 | 1.749 | 1.599 | 0.153 | 1.872 | -0.108 | 1.999 | -0.234 | 1.337 | 107.887 |
9 | Virginia Tech | 0.972 | 1.490 | 1.791 | 0.237 | 0.337 | 1.190 | 1.258 | 1.454 | 0.177 | 0.728 | 102.840 |
10 | BYU | 1.335 | -0.266 | 0.264 | 0.895 | 2.684 | 0.628 | 1.943 | 0.553 | 1.034 | -0.008 | 102.363 |
11 | Georgia Tech | 1.391 | 1.271 | -0.545 | -0.044 | 2.342 | 0.158 | 1.694 | 0.068 | 1.132 | -0.431 | 95.093 |
12 | Iowa | 1.335 | 0.326 | 2.042 | 0.648 | -0.268 | 1.434 | -0.529 | 1.492 | -0.833 | 0.566 | 91.762 |
13 | Oregon | 1.335 | 1.588 | 0.942 | 0.533 | -0.598 | 0.658 | 0.148 | 0.262 | 0.816 | 0.476 | 88.972 |
14 | Miami (FL) | 0.972 | 1.202 | 0.406 | 0.739 | 1.354 | 0.806 | 0.726 | 0.452 | 0.602 | 0.468 | 88.537 |
15 | Central Mich. | 1.391 | -1.535 | 0.569 | 0.714 | 1.898 | 0.708 | 1.276 | 1.228 | 0.680 | 0.593 | 82.427 |
16 | Pittsburgh | 0.972 | 0.412 | 0.386 | 0.983 | 0.600 | 0.758 | 1.398 | 0.807 | 0.381 | 0.327 | 78.837 |
17 | Nebraska | 0.721 | 0.330 | 2.124 | 1.303 | -0.453 | 1.472 | -0.418 | 2.142 | -1.071 | 1.055 | 78.228 |
18 | LSU | 0.972 | 1.262 | 1.097 | 0.348 | -0.105 | 0.710 | 0.167 | 1.416 | -1.203 | 0.395 | 75.346 |
19 | West Virginia | 0.972 | 0.652 | 0.828 | 0.736 | 0.477 | 0.647 | 0.151 | 0.693 | 0.060 | 1.465 | 74.882 |
20 | Wisconsin | 0.972 | -0.144 | -0.122 | 1.425 | 1.383 | 1.003 | 0.668 | 0.438 | 0.661 | 0.457 | 74.258 |
21 | Oklahoma | 0.246 | 0.714 | 1.558 | 1.472 | -0.136 | 1.673 | 0.005 | 1.796 | 0.724 | 1.403 | 71.186 |
22 | Arizona | 0.609 | 1.520 | 0.510 | 0.897 | 0.593 | 0.905 | -0.115 | 0.324 | 0.514 | 0.987 | 70.642 |
23 | Oklahoma St. | 0.972 | 0.231 | 0.757 | 1.495 | -0.215 | 0.649 | 0.353 | 0.540 | -0.034 | 1.167 | 70.515 |
24 | Oregon St. | 0.609 | 1.138 | -0.127 | 0.839 | 1.285 | 0.232 | 1.087 | 0.286 | 0.724 | 0.621 | 66.633 |
25 | North Carolina | 0.609 | 0.615 | 1.340 | 1.367 | -0.461 | 1.777 | -0.875 | 1.276 | -1.172 | 1.918 | 66.515 |
26 | Utah | 0.972 | -0.240 | 1.561 | 0.171 | -0.146 | 0.935 | 0.034 | 0.857 | 0.200 | 1.465 | 63.415 |
27 | Mississippi | 0.609 | 0.544 | 1.266 | 0.196 | 0.121 | 0.841 | 0.083 | 1.023 | 0.481 | 1.504 | 59.902 |
28 | Southern California | 0.609 | 1.487 | 1.199 | 0.426 | -0.912 | 0.415 | -0.130 | 0.743 | 0.120 | 0.159 | 56.079 |
29 | Tennessee | 0.246 | 0.926 | 1.568 | 0.132 | 0.033 | 1.032 | 0.379 | 0.655 | 0.302 | 0.880 | 53.799 |
30 | Texas Tech | 0.609 | 0.103 | 0.599 | 0.574 | 0.210 | 0.307 | 0.807 | 0.540 | 1.467 | -0.201 | 50.595 |
31 | South Carolina | 0.246 | 1.539 | 0.736 | 0.278 | -0.184 | 1.107 | -0.211 | 0.743 | -0.332 | 0.419 | 46.786 |
32 | Stanford | 0.609 | 1.168 | -0.739 | 0.093 | 1.333 | -0.559 | 0.882 | -0.132 | 1.110 | -0.576 | 44.047 |
33 | Navy | 0.609 | -0.386 | -0.072 | 0.502 | 1.343 | 0.360 | 0.744 | 0.604 | -0.461 | 0.597 | 42.653 |
34 | Auburn | 0.246 | 1.316 | 0.765 | -0.330 | 0.179 | 0.221 | 1.009 | -0.247 | 0.950 | 0.952 | 42.616 |
35 | Clemson | 0.386 | 0.954 | 0.903 | -0.050 | -0.194 | 0.881 | -0.214 | 0.655 | -0.222 | -0.034 | 40.952 |
36 | Missouri | 0.609 | 0.311 | -0.290 | 1.279 | -0.518 | 0.139 | 0.651 | 0.110 | 0.684 | -0.558 | 37.778 |
37 | California | 0.609 | 1.209 | -0.485 | 0.769 | -0.408 | -0.223 | 0.029 | 0.122 | 0.365 | 0.352 | 36.478 |
38 | Boston College | 0.609 | 0.334 | 0.684 | 1.082 | -1.679 | 0.858 | -0.567 | 0.895 | -0.935 | 1.092 | 35.661 |
39 | Northwestern | 0.609 | -0.926 | 0.007 | 0.611 | 1.400 | 0.389 | 0.165 | 0.300 | 0.137 | 0.785 | 35.653 |
40 | Houston | 1.056 | -0.988 | -0.171 | -1.598 | 2.076 | -1.397 | 1.822 | -0.528 | 3.564 | -0.560 | 34.215 |
41 | Air Force | 0.246 | -0.759 | 0.960 | 0.301 | 0.629 | 1.468 | -0.401 | 1.518 | -0.391 | 1.583 | 33.828 |
42 | East Carolina | 0.721 | 0.002 | -0.088 | 0.616 | 0.664 | -0.362 | -0.420 | 0.490 | -0.185 | -0.615 | 32.883 |
43 | South Fla. | 0.246 | -0.011 | 0.643 | 0.260 | 0.273 | 0.670 | 0.619 | 0.629 | -0.280 | -0.223 | 31.199 |
44 | Georgia | 0.246 | 1.588 | -0.621 | 0.511 | -0.169 | 0.676 | 0.206 | -0.171 | -0.287 | 0.498 | 30.957 |
45 | UCF | 0.609 | -0.555 | -0.433 | 1.622 | -0.157 | 0.319 | 0.215 | 0.705 | -0.530 | -0.455 | 29.990 |
46 | Nevada | 0.609 | -0.499 | -1.690 | 0.829 | 1.921 | -0.603 | 0.691 | -0.285 | 2.517 | 0.091 | 27.465 |
47 | Rutgers | 0.609 | -1.082 | 0.524 | 0.971 | -1.244 | 0.971 | -0.516 | 1.199 | -0.989 | 1.515 | 21.727 |
48 | Middle Tenn. | 0.972 | -1.867 | 0.970 | 0.256 | -1.078 | 0.256 | -0.348 | 0.350 | 0.722 | 0.930 | 20.908 |
49 | Temple | 0.972 | -1.616 | -0.035 | 0.973 | -0.520 | 0.545 | -1.169 | 0.553 | -0.710 | 0.650 | 18.697 |
50 | Arkansas | 0.246 | 1.327 | -0.845 | -0.044 | -0.610 | -0.656 | 1.511 | -0.069 | 1.073 | 0.531 | 17.909 |
51 | Troy | 0.972 | -1.254 | -0.829 | 0.200 | 0.179 | -0.948 | 1.027 | -0.499 | 1.761 | 0.073 | 16.742 |
52 | Ohio | 0.721 | -1.299 | 1.101 | -0.065 | -1.172 | 0.209 | 0.028 | 0.607 | -0.942 | 0.294 | 14.132 |
53 | UCLA | -0.117 | 1.492 | 0.421 | 0.095 | -0.974 | 0.496 | -0.985 | 0.616 | -0.682 | 1.026 | 10.753 |
54 | Kentucky | 0.246 | 0.594 | 0.929 | -0.860 | -0.141 | 0.050 | -1.226 | 0.376 | -0.739 | -0.139 | 9.246 |
55 | Fresno St. | 0.609 | -0.249 | -0.331 | -1.581 | 1.015 | -0.834 | 0.751 | -0.385 | 1.013 | -0.025 | 8.462 |
56 | Notre Dame | -0.117 | 0.917 | -0.481 | -0.542 | 0.210 | -0.582 | 1.858 | -0.094 | 1.291 | -0.107 | 7.983 |
57 | Southern Miss. | 0.246 | -1.127 | -0.141 | 0.660 | 0.098 | -0.399 | 1.136 | 0.122 | 0.703 | -0.286 | 6.896 |
58 | Connecticut | 0.246 | 0.596 | -0.992 | 0.264 | 0.033 | -0.304 | -0.003 | 0.046 | 0.355 | -0.201 | 6.865 |
59 | Northern Ill. | 0.246 | -2.028 | -0.138 | 0.712 | 0.854 | 0.756 | 0.498 | 0.629 | -0.423 | -0.479 | 6.322 |
60 | Texas A&M | -0.117 | 0.422 | -0.528 | -0.500 | 1.838 | -1.191 | 0.655 | -1.122 | 1.529 | 0.408 | 1.307 |
61 | Michigan St. | -0.117 | 0.221 | -0.740 | 0.876 | -0.549 | 0.025 | 1.012 | 0.033 | 0.507 | -0.698 | 1.029 |
62 | Washington | -0.480 | 1.708 | -0.776 | -0.013 | 1.087 | -0.432 | 0.055 | -0.209 | -0.047 | -0.277 | -0.144 |
63 | Wake Forest | -0.480 | 1.042 | -0.257 | -0.396 | 0.718 | -0.316 | 1.005 | -0.145 | 0.443 | -0.617 | -1.807 |
64 | Bowling Green | 0.246 | -0.840 | 0.233 | -1.096 | 0.845 | -0.509 | 0.166 | -0.132 | 0.232 | 0.571 | -4.154 |
65 | La.-Monroe | -0.117 | -1.528 | 0.316 | 0.942 | 0.581 | 0.339 | -0.198 | -0.309 | 0.248 | 0.231 | -4.323 |
66 | Arizona St. | -0.843 | 0.975 | 1.061 | 0.979 | -1.547 | 1.236 | -0.955 | 0.642 | -0.768 | 1.703 | -5.248 |
67 | Kansas | -0.480 | 0.373 | -0.191 | 0.247 | 0.621 | -0.319 | 0.371 | -0.475 | 0.776 | -0.181 | -7.622 |
68 | Minnesota | -0.117 | 0.810 | 0.237 | 0.040 | -0.766 | 0.026 | -0.988 | 0.110 | -1.445 | -1.031 | -8.263 |
69 | Kansas St. | -0.117 | -0.084 | -0.356 | 1.057 | -0.968 | 0.467 | -0.653 | 0.300 | -0.506 | -0.391 | -8.444 |
70 | Idaho | 0.246 | -0.574 | -1.773 | -0.180 | 1.451 | -1.067 | 1.492 | -1.553 | 1.284 | -2.519 | -11.307 |
71 | Purdue | -0.480 | 0.364 | 0.657 | -0.620 | 0.439 | -0.198 | -0.041 | -0.575 | 0.231 | -0.326 | -11.989 |
72 | Marshall | -0.117 | -0.251 | -0.197 | 0.079 | 0.326 | -0.486 | -0.634 | 0.058 | -0.403 | -0.157 | -14.511 |
73 | Florida St. | -0.117 | 1.592 | -1.596 | -1.355 | 1.042 | -1.412 | 0.774 | -0.830 | 0.768 | -1.060 | -14.957 |
74 | North Carolina St. | -0.480 | 0.009 | -1.018 | 0.227 | 0.857 | 0.081 | 0.836 | -0.894 | 0.275 | -0.661 | -17.032 |
75 | Buffalo | -0.480 | -1.196 | 0.392 | 0.408 | 0.345 | 0.418 | -0.127 | 0.236 | 0.478 | -0.727 | -17.716 |
76 | Mississippi St. | -0.480 | 1.526 | -0.244 | 0.056 | -1.109 | -0.006 | -1.122 | -0.221 | -0.110 | 0.468 | -18.162 |
77 | SMU | 0.246 | -0.722 | 0.267 | -0.515 | -1.794 | -0.695 | 0.057 | -0.575 | 0.030 | -0.742 | -25.198 |
78 | Iowa St. | -0.117 | -0.169 | -0.522 | -0.519 | 0.246 | -0.883 | -0.907 | 0.414 | -0.329 | -0.041 | -26.698 |
79 | Duke | -0.480 | 0.180 | -0.453 | -0.112 | -0.453 | -0.052 | 0.326 | -0.461 | -0.170 | -1.126 | -27.508 |
80 | Louisiana Tech | -0.843 | -0.212 | 0.461 | -0.359 | 0.362 | -0.048 | 0.317 | -0.069 | -0.104 | 0.301 | -27.669 |
81 | Tulsa | -0.480 | -1.069 | -0.612 | 0.032 | -0.124 | -0.571 | 0.759 | -0.309 | 0.560 | 0.630 | -37.080 |
82 | Hawaii | -0.285 | -0.744 | -0.730 | -1.321 | 0.885 | -0.705 | 0.213 | -0.633 | 1.040 | -0.981 | -38.122 |
83 | Wyoming | -0.117 | 0.073 | -0.254 | -0.548 | -1.016 | -0.542 | -1.497 | -0.297 | -1.396 | -0.245 | -38.554 |
84 | Syracuse | -0.843 | 0.572 | -1.502 | 1.145 | -1.378 | 0.520 | -0.004 | -0.399 | -0.838 | 0.630 | -40.385 |
85 | Michigan | -0.480 | -0.587 | -0.306 | -0.583 | -0.008 | -0.502 | -0.310 | -0.335 | 0.111 | 0.321 | -40.447 |
86 | Virginia | -1.206 | 1.560 | 0.879 | -0.630 | -1.011 | 0.132 | -1.620 | -0.157 | -1.906 | 0.450 | -44.346 |
87 | Baylor | -0.843 | 0.634 | 0.206 | -0.751 | -0.664 | -0.724 | -0.490 | -0.297 | -0.619 | -1.042 | -46.553 |
88 | Toledo | -0.480 | -1.228 | -0.133 | -0.437 | 0.229 | -0.757 | 0.185 | -1.883 | 1.048 | -1.297 | -47.210 |
89 | San Diego St. | -0.843 | -0.375 | -0.154 | -0.425 | 0.420 | -0.296 | -0.227 | -0.792 | -0.637 | -1.395 | -47.937 |
90 | Kent St. | -0.480 | -1.751 | 0.706 | 0.276 | -1.864 | 0.176 | -0.848 | 0.438 | -0.887 | 0.121 | -49.277 |
91 | La.-Lafayette | -0.117 | -1.719 | -0.667 | -0.829 | 0.443 | -0.701 | -0.414 | -0.766 | -0.289 | -1.274 | -50.206 |
92 | UAB | -0.480 | -0.414 | -1.405 | 0.114 | -0.501 | -1.623 | 0.973 | -1.070 | 0.838 | -1.104 | -50.974 |
93 | Louisville | -0.843 | 0.508 | -0.909 | -0.414 | -0.508 | -0.098 | -0.797 | -0.145 | -0.774 | -0.251 | -51.926 |
94 | Army | -0.315 | -2.111 | 0.282 | -0.011 | -1.689 | 1.012 | -1.746 | 0.447 | -1.664 | -0.152 | -55.223 |
95 | Indiana | -0.843 | -0.182 | -0.699 | -0.266 | -0.124 | -0.641 | -0.284 | -0.639 | -0.231 | -1.581 | -56.330 |
96 | Western Mich. | -0.480 | -1.725 | -0.397 | -0.741 | 0.302 | -0.964 | -0.418 | -0.335 | 0.169 | 0.040 | -58.693 |
97 | Colorado | -1.206 | 0.712 | -0.290 | -0.318 | -0.688 | 0.049 | -1.392 | -0.537 | -1.121 | 0.880 | -60.089 |
98 | Illinois | -1.206 | 0.589 | -0.952 | -0.151 | -0.124 | -0.681 | -0.430 | -0.741 | 0.269 | -1.044 | -61.612 |
99 | Arkansas St. | -0.843 | -1.950 | -0.415 | 0.648 | -1.109 | 0.457 | -0.553 | 0.312 | -0.866 | -0.266 | -64.426 |
100 | UNLV | -0.480 | -0.156 | -1.268 | -1.783 | 1.128 | -1.642 | -0.527 | -1.084 | -0.473 | -1.919 | -64.623 |
101 | Utah St. | -0.843 | -0.077 | -0.567 | -1.411 | -0.667 | -1.622 | 0.568 | -1.324 | 1.073 | -0.617 | -69.699 |
102 | Fla. Atlantic | -0.480 | -1.417 | -1.316 | -1.783 | 0.967 | -1.587 | 0.500 | -1.286 | 0.946 | -0.440 | -70.792 |
103 | Colorado St. | -1.206 | -0.060 | -0.834 | -0.094 | -0.766 | -0.400 | -0.081 | -0.690 | -0.474 | -2.896 | -72.984 |
104 | Vanderbilt | -1.569 | 1.074 | 0.577 | -1.222 | -0.751 | 0.053 | -2.351 | 0.300 | -1.261 | 0.104 | -72.987 |
105 | UTEP | -0.843 | -0.984 | -0.704 | -1.296 | 0.273 | -1.474 | -0.091 | -1.248 | 0.886 | -1.448 | -77.325 |
106 | Maryland | -1.569 | 0.862 | -1.012 | -0.063 | -0.556 | -0.556 | -0.744 | -0.906 | -1.084 | 0.099 | -78.768 |
107 | Akron | -1.206 | -1.149 | -0.040 | -0.583 | -1.337 | -0.036 | -0.955 | -0.525 | -1.356 | -1.881 | -90.376 |
108 | North Texas | -1.569 | -1.595 | -0.110 | -1.166 | 0.388 | -0.846 | -0.233 | -1.565 | 0.535 | 0.203 | -99.116 |
109 | Tulane | -1.206 | -0.478 | -1.832 | -1.394 | 0.669 | -1.037 | -0.395 | -1.731 | -1.153 | -1.910 | -100.651 |
110 | Miami (OH) | -1.932 | 0.071 | -0.570 | -0.953 | -0.136 | -0.211 | -1.012 | -1.350 | -0.609 | -0.324 | -102.318 |
111 | Memphis | -1.569 | -0.255 | -1.739 | -0.636 | -0.766 | -1.666 | -0.770 | -1.451 | -0.090 | -0.201 | -116.422 |
112 | Ball St. | -1.569 | -1.226 | -1.180 | -0.100 | -1.004 | -0.381 | -2.078 | -0.437 | -1.481 | -0.021 | -116.971 |
113 | San Jose St. | -1.569 | 0.167 | -0.411 | -2.734 | -1.143 | -1.401 | -0.877 | -1.400 | -1.653 | -0.948 | -123.731 |
114 | FIU | -1.206 | -0.637 | -0.954 | -2.085 | -0.809 | -2.284 | -1.225 | -1.527 | -1.005 | -0.637 | -124.115 |
115 | New Mexico St. | -1.290 | -0.652 | -0.021 | -1.785 | -1.612 | -1.051 | -3.020 | -0.962 | -2.613 | -0.742 | -124.970 |
116 | New Mexico | -1.932 | 0.120 | -1.707 | -0.412 | -1.660 | -0.961 | -1.406 | -1.617 | -1.103 | -1.669 | -134.033 |
117 | Rice | -1.569 | -0.109 | -2.269 | -1.043 | -1.489 | -1.784 | -1.689 | -2.707 | -1.292 | -0.952 | -145.863 |
118 | Washington St. | -1.932 | 1.710 | -1.443 | -2.173 | -2.739 | -2.655 | -1.652 | -2.009 | -2.275 | -0.508 | -155.156 |
119 | Eastern Mich. | -2.295 | -0.964 | -0.618 | -3.170 | -0.345 | -1.111 | -1.778 | -1.971 | -1.753 | -1.193 | -170.363 |
120 | Western Ky. | -2.295 | -1.406 | -2.530 | -2.381 | -1.458 | -2.042 | -1.195 | -2.174 | -1.008 | -2.473 | -202.677 |