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College BlogPoll: End of Season Draft

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I have already made several manual changes to the poll, based on knowledge of some computer biases that we want to knock out of the system over the offseason.  But fortunately, the computer already had TCU ranked above Texas, which saves me some grief.  Here is the draft, with discussion and numbers to follow.

Notes:

  • Florida was actually ranked #2 by the computers.  I'm putting them behind the undefeateds, though.  Any problems with that?
  • Penn State was sky-high again.  They're put behind Iowa (head-to-head).
  • Georgia Tech was low, thanks to being an offense-only team that still wins like crazy.  They're bumped up.
  • Oregon got the Georgia Tech treatment.
  • Brigham Young - should they bump down a touch?  They're a flaky team, but so is Iowa.
  • Central Michigan - any thoughts?
  • Oklahoma again was manually bumped out.  (FWIW, Tennessee comes in at #29 with the same record.)
  • Arizona didn't move because they were manually bumped last week.  Is beating USC worth bumping them?

Data:

Here it is in Excel 2003 and Excel 2007 form.  Static data is in this table:

Untitled Document
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Alabama 2.061 1.160 2.226 1.735 0.146 2.250 0.695 2.177 0.625 1.752 166.502
2 Florida 1.726 0.922 1.925 1.151 1.590 2.043 1.903 2.095 1.127 1.607 161.202
3 TCU 2.061 -0.523 2.139 1.671 0.691 2.403 1.978 1.961 1.595 2.348 160.236
4 Texas 2.061 0.401 1.493 2.124 1.080 2.079 0.869 1.545 0.951 2.166 159.688
5 Penn St. 1.335 -0.512 1.328 1.340 1.693 1.608 0.916 2.050 0.602 1.230 113.899
6 Boise St. 2.061 -1.048 1.359 0.529 -0.230 1.199 2.103 1.158 1.444 1.230 112.956
7 Cincinnati 2.061 -0.021 0.432 0.180 0.465 0.280 2.221 0.693 1.511 0.009 108.746
8 Ohio St. 1.335 0.017 1.749 1.599 0.153 1.872 -0.108 1.999 -0.234 1.337 107.887
9 Virginia Tech 0.972 1.490 1.791 0.237 0.337 1.190 1.258 1.454 0.177 0.728 102.840
10 BYU 1.335 -0.266 0.264 0.895 2.684 0.628 1.943 0.553 1.034 -0.008 102.363
11 Georgia Tech 1.391 1.271 -0.545 -0.044 2.342 0.158 1.694 0.068 1.132 -0.431 95.093
12 Iowa 1.335 0.326 2.042 0.648 -0.268 1.434 -0.529 1.492 -0.833 0.566 91.762
13 Oregon 1.335 1.588 0.942 0.533 -0.598 0.658 0.148 0.262 0.816 0.476 88.972
14 Miami (FL) 0.972 1.202 0.406 0.739 1.354 0.806 0.726 0.452 0.602 0.468 88.537
15 Central Mich. 1.391 -1.535 0.569 0.714 1.898 0.708 1.276 1.228 0.680 0.593 82.427
16 Pittsburgh 0.972 0.412 0.386 0.983 0.600 0.758 1.398 0.807 0.381 0.327 78.837
17 Nebraska 0.721 0.330 2.124 1.303 -0.453 1.472 -0.418 2.142 -1.071 1.055 78.228
18 LSU 0.972 1.262 1.097 0.348 -0.105 0.710 0.167 1.416 -1.203 0.395 75.346
19 West Virginia 0.972 0.652 0.828 0.736 0.477 0.647 0.151 0.693 0.060 1.465 74.882
20 Wisconsin 0.972 -0.144 -0.122 1.425 1.383 1.003 0.668 0.438 0.661 0.457 74.258
21 Oklahoma 0.246 0.714 1.558 1.472 -0.136 1.673 0.005 1.796 0.724 1.403 71.186
22 Arizona 0.609 1.520 0.510 0.897 0.593 0.905 -0.115 0.324 0.514 0.987 70.642
23 Oklahoma St. 0.972 0.231 0.757 1.495 -0.215 0.649 0.353 0.540 -0.034 1.167 70.515
24 Oregon St. 0.609 1.138 -0.127 0.839 1.285 0.232 1.087 0.286 0.724 0.621 66.633
25 North Carolina 0.609 0.615 1.340 1.367 -0.461 1.777 -0.875 1.276 -1.172 1.918 66.515
26 Utah 0.972 -0.240 1.561 0.171 -0.146 0.935 0.034 0.857 0.200 1.465 63.415
27 Mississippi 0.609 0.544 1.266 0.196 0.121 0.841 0.083 1.023 0.481 1.504 59.902
28 Southern California 0.609 1.487 1.199 0.426 -0.912 0.415 -0.130 0.743 0.120 0.159 56.079
29 Tennessee 0.246 0.926 1.568 0.132 0.033 1.032 0.379 0.655 0.302 0.880 53.799
30 Texas Tech 0.609 0.103 0.599 0.574 0.210 0.307 0.807 0.540 1.467 -0.201 50.595
31 South Carolina 0.246 1.539 0.736 0.278 -0.184 1.107 -0.211 0.743 -0.332 0.419 46.786
32 Stanford 0.609 1.168 -0.739 0.093 1.333 -0.559 0.882 -0.132 1.110 -0.576 44.047
33 Navy 0.609 -0.386 -0.072 0.502 1.343 0.360 0.744 0.604 -0.461 0.597 42.653
34 Auburn 0.246 1.316 0.765 -0.330 0.179 0.221 1.009 -0.247 0.950 0.952 42.616
35 Clemson 0.386 0.954 0.903 -0.050 -0.194 0.881 -0.214 0.655 -0.222 -0.034 40.952
36 Missouri 0.609 0.311 -0.290 1.279 -0.518 0.139 0.651 0.110 0.684 -0.558 37.778
37 California 0.609 1.209 -0.485 0.769 -0.408 -0.223 0.029 0.122 0.365 0.352 36.478
38 Boston College 0.609 0.334 0.684 1.082 -1.679 0.858 -0.567 0.895 -0.935 1.092 35.661
39 Northwestern 0.609 -0.926 0.007 0.611 1.400 0.389 0.165 0.300 0.137 0.785 35.653
40 Houston 1.056 -0.988 -0.171 -1.598 2.076 -1.397 1.822 -0.528 3.564 -0.560 34.215
41 Air Force 0.246 -0.759 0.960 0.301 0.629 1.468 -0.401 1.518 -0.391 1.583 33.828
42 East Carolina 0.721 0.002 -0.088 0.616 0.664 -0.362 -0.420 0.490 -0.185 -0.615 32.883
43 South Fla. 0.246 -0.011 0.643 0.260 0.273 0.670 0.619 0.629 -0.280 -0.223 31.199
44 Georgia 0.246 1.588 -0.621 0.511 -0.169 0.676 0.206 -0.171 -0.287 0.498 30.957
45 UCF 0.609 -0.555 -0.433 1.622 -0.157 0.319 0.215 0.705 -0.530 -0.455 29.990
46 Nevada 0.609 -0.499 -1.690 0.829 1.921 -0.603 0.691 -0.285 2.517 0.091 27.465
47 Rutgers 0.609 -1.082 0.524 0.971 -1.244 0.971 -0.516 1.199 -0.989 1.515 21.727
48 Middle Tenn. 0.972 -1.867 0.970 0.256 -1.078 0.256 -0.348 0.350 0.722 0.930 20.908
49 Temple 0.972 -1.616 -0.035 0.973 -0.520 0.545 -1.169 0.553 -0.710 0.650 18.697
50 Arkansas 0.246 1.327 -0.845 -0.044 -0.610 -0.656 1.511 -0.069 1.073 0.531 17.909
51 Troy 0.972 -1.254 -0.829 0.200 0.179 -0.948 1.027 -0.499 1.761 0.073 16.742
52 Ohio 0.721 -1.299 1.101 -0.065 -1.172 0.209 0.028 0.607 -0.942 0.294 14.132
53 UCLA -0.117 1.492 0.421 0.095 -0.974 0.496 -0.985 0.616 -0.682 1.026 10.753
54 Kentucky 0.246 0.594 0.929 -0.860 -0.141 0.050 -1.226 0.376 -0.739 -0.139 9.246
55 Fresno St. 0.609 -0.249 -0.331 -1.581 1.015 -0.834 0.751 -0.385 1.013 -0.025 8.462
56 Notre Dame -0.117 0.917 -0.481 -0.542 0.210 -0.582 1.858 -0.094 1.291 -0.107 7.983
57 Southern Miss. 0.246 -1.127 -0.141 0.660 0.098 -0.399 1.136 0.122 0.703 -0.286 6.896
58 Connecticut 0.246 0.596 -0.992 0.264 0.033 -0.304 -0.003 0.046 0.355 -0.201 6.865
59 Northern Ill. 0.246 -2.028 -0.138 0.712 0.854 0.756 0.498 0.629 -0.423 -0.479 6.322
60 Texas A&M -0.117 0.422 -0.528 -0.500 1.838 -1.191 0.655 -1.122 1.529 0.408 1.307
61 Michigan St. -0.117 0.221 -0.740 0.876 -0.549 0.025 1.012 0.033 0.507 -0.698 1.029
62 Washington -0.480 1.708 -0.776 -0.013 1.087 -0.432 0.055 -0.209 -0.047 -0.277 -0.144
63 Wake Forest -0.480 1.042 -0.257 -0.396 0.718 -0.316 1.005 -0.145 0.443 -0.617 -1.807
64 Bowling Green 0.246 -0.840 0.233 -1.096 0.845 -0.509 0.166 -0.132 0.232 0.571 -4.154
65 La.-Monroe -0.117 -1.528 0.316 0.942 0.581 0.339 -0.198 -0.309 0.248 0.231 -4.323
66 Arizona St. -0.843 0.975 1.061 0.979 -1.547 1.236 -0.955 0.642 -0.768 1.703 -5.248
67 Kansas -0.480 0.373 -0.191 0.247 0.621 -0.319 0.371 -0.475 0.776 -0.181 -7.622
68 Minnesota -0.117 0.810 0.237 0.040 -0.766 0.026 -0.988 0.110 -1.445 -1.031 -8.263
69 Kansas St. -0.117 -0.084 -0.356 1.057 -0.968 0.467 -0.653 0.300 -0.506 -0.391 -8.444
70 Idaho 0.246 -0.574 -1.773 -0.180 1.451 -1.067 1.492 -1.553 1.284 -2.519 -11.307
71 Purdue -0.480 0.364 0.657 -0.620 0.439 -0.198 -0.041 -0.575 0.231 -0.326 -11.989
72 Marshall -0.117 -0.251 -0.197 0.079 0.326 -0.486 -0.634 0.058 -0.403 -0.157 -14.511
73 Florida St. -0.117 1.592 -1.596 -1.355 1.042 -1.412 0.774 -0.830 0.768 -1.060 -14.957
74 North Carolina St. -0.480 0.009 -1.018 0.227 0.857 0.081 0.836 -0.894 0.275 -0.661 -17.032
75 Buffalo -0.480 -1.196 0.392 0.408 0.345 0.418 -0.127 0.236 0.478 -0.727 -17.716
76 Mississippi St. -0.480 1.526 -0.244 0.056 -1.109 -0.006 -1.122 -0.221 -0.110 0.468 -18.162
77 SMU 0.246 -0.722 0.267 -0.515 -1.794 -0.695 0.057 -0.575 0.030 -0.742 -25.198
78 Iowa St. -0.117 -0.169 -0.522 -0.519 0.246 -0.883 -0.907 0.414 -0.329 -0.041 -26.698
79 Duke -0.480 0.180 -0.453 -0.112 -0.453 -0.052 0.326 -0.461 -0.170 -1.126 -27.508
80 Louisiana Tech -0.843 -0.212 0.461 -0.359 0.362 -0.048 0.317 -0.069 -0.104 0.301 -27.669
81 Tulsa -0.480 -1.069 -0.612 0.032 -0.124 -0.571 0.759 -0.309 0.560 0.630 -37.080
82 Hawaii -0.285 -0.744 -0.730 -1.321 0.885 -0.705 0.213 -0.633 1.040 -0.981 -38.122
83 Wyoming -0.117 0.073 -0.254 -0.548 -1.016 -0.542 -1.497 -0.297 -1.396 -0.245 -38.554
84 Syracuse -0.843 0.572 -1.502 1.145 -1.378 0.520 -0.004 -0.399 -0.838 0.630 -40.385
85 Michigan -0.480 -0.587 -0.306 -0.583 -0.008 -0.502 -0.310 -0.335 0.111 0.321 -40.447
86 Virginia -1.206 1.560 0.879 -0.630 -1.011 0.132 -1.620 -0.157 -1.906 0.450 -44.346
87 Baylor -0.843 0.634 0.206 -0.751 -0.664 -0.724 -0.490 -0.297 -0.619 -1.042 -46.553
88 Toledo -0.480 -1.228 -0.133 -0.437 0.229 -0.757 0.185 -1.883 1.048 -1.297 -47.210
89 San Diego St. -0.843 -0.375 -0.154 -0.425 0.420 -0.296 -0.227 -0.792 -0.637 -1.395 -47.937
90 Kent St. -0.480 -1.751 0.706 0.276 -1.864 0.176 -0.848 0.438 -0.887 0.121 -49.277
91 La.-Lafayette -0.117 -1.719 -0.667 -0.829 0.443 -0.701 -0.414 -0.766 -0.289 -1.274 -50.206
92 UAB -0.480 -0.414 -1.405 0.114 -0.501 -1.623 0.973 -1.070 0.838 -1.104 -50.974
93 Louisville -0.843 0.508 -0.909 -0.414 -0.508 -0.098 -0.797 -0.145 -0.774 -0.251 -51.926
94 Army -0.315 -2.111 0.282 -0.011 -1.689 1.012 -1.746 0.447 -1.664 -0.152 -55.223
95 Indiana -0.843 -0.182 -0.699 -0.266 -0.124 -0.641 -0.284 -0.639 -0.231 -1.581 -56.330
96 Western Mich. -0.480 -1.725 -0.397 -0.741 0.302 -0.964 -0.418 -0.335 0.169 0.040 -58.693
97 Colorado -1.206 0.712 -0.290 -0.318 -0.688 0.049 -1.392 -0.537 -1.121 0.880 -60.089
98 Illinois -1.206 0.589 -0.952 -0.151 -0.124 -0.681 -0.430 -0.741 0.269 -1.044 -61.612
99 Arkansas St. -0.843 -1.950 -0.415 0.648 -1.109 0.457 -0.553 0.312 -0.866 -0.266 -64.426
100 UNLV -0.480 -0.156 -1.268 -1.783 1.128 -1.642 -0.527 -1.084 -0.473 -1.919 -64.623
101 Utah St. -0.843 -0.077 -0.567 -1.411 -0.667 -1.622 0.568 -1.324 1.073 -0.617 -69.699
102 Fla. Atlantic -0.480 -1.417 -1.316 -1.783 0.967 -1.587 0.500 -1.286 0.946 -0.440 -70.792
103 Colorado St. -1.206 -0.060 -0.834 -0.094 -0.766 -0.400 -0.081 -0.690 -0.474 -2.896 -72.984
104 Vanderbilt -1.569 1.074 0.577 -1.222 -0.751 0.053 -2.351 0.300 -1.261 0.104 -72.987
105 UTEP -0.843 -0.984 -0.704 -1.296 0.273 -1.474 -0.091 -1.248 0.886 -1.448 -77.325
106 Maryland -1.569 0.862 -1.012 -0.063 -0.556 -0.556 -0.744 -0.906 -1.084 0.099 -78.768
107 Akron -1.206 -1.149 -0.040 -0.583 -1.337 -0.036 -0.955 -0.525 -1.356 -1.881 -90.376
108 North Texas -1.569 -1.595 -0.110 -1.166 0.388 -0.846 -0.233 -1.565 0.535 0.203 -99.116
109 Tulane -1.206 -0.478 -1.832 -1.394 0.669 -1.037 -0.395 -1.731 -1.153 -1.910 -100.651
110 Miami (OH) -1.932 0.071 -0.570 -0.953 -0.136 -0.211 -1.012 -1.350 -0.609 -0.324 -102.318
111 Memphis -1.569 -0.255 -1.739 -0.636 -0.766 -1.666 -0.770 -1.451 -0.090 -0.201 -116.422
112 Ball St. -1.569 -1.226 -1.180 -0.100 -1.004 -0.381 -2.078 -0.437 -1.481 -0.021 -116.971
113 San Jose St. -1.569 0.167 -0.411 -2.734 -1.143 -1.401 -0.877 -1.400 -1.653 -0.948 -123.731
114 FIU -1.206 -0.637 -0.954 -2.085 -0.809 -2.284 -1.225 -1.527 -1.005 -0.637 -124.115
115 New Mexico St. -1.290 -0.652 -0.021 -1.785 -1.612 -1.051 -3.020 -0.962 -2.613 -0.742 -124.970
116 New Mexico -1.932 0.120 -1.707 -0.412 -1.660 -0.961 -1.406 -1.617 -1.103 -1.669 -134.033
117 Rice -1.569 -0.109 -2.269 -1.043 -1.489 -1.784 -1.689 -2.707 -1.292 -0.952 -145.863
118 Washington St. -1.932 1.710 -1.443 -2.173 -2.739 -2.655 -1.652 -2.009 -2.275 -0.508 -155.156
119 Eastern Mich. -2.295 -0.964 -0.618 -3.170 -0.345 -1.111 -1.778 -1.971 -1.753 -1.193 -170.363
120 Western Ky. -2.295 -1.406 -2.530 -2.381 -1.458 -2.042 -1.195 -2.174 -1.008 -2.473 -202.677