College BlogPoll Week 4: Raw Computer Numbers

The numbers are up!  I'm going to change my approach this week, and I think this will work better for the rest of the season.  Here's the plan (for all weeks that my schedule permits):

1. Post the computer numbers Sunday afternoon/evening.  These will act as the first rough draft of the RTT BlogPoll ballot.  (The draft is due in on Monday mornings.)
2. Time permitting, write a post about the poll results sometime Monday or Tuesday.  This isn't so much a ranking post as it is a discussion about the performances of some teams and conferences.  It won't have any bearing on the final ballot.
3. Take on board the conversations about the ballot and submit the final ballot Tuesday evening (final ballots are due Wednesday morning).

After the jump, you'll see the raw table in its entirety.  It's long (120 Div. 1A teams), but don't let that be a concern.  I'll put a few observations about some of the more unusual results below the table.  The top 25 are the first draft ballot for the BlogPoll, but that does not make them sacrosanct.  Feel free to shred from there.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas	11
4	Iowa	8
5	Boise State	8
6	Penn State	1
7	Cincinnati	4
8	Oklahoma	7
9	Kansas	1
10	LSU	2
11	North Carolina State
12	South Florida
13	Virginia Tech
14	Nebraska
15	UCLA	4
16	Southern Cal	8
17	Auburn	6
18	Arizona
19	TCU
20	Ohio State
21	Connecticut
22	Georgia Tech
23	Brigham Young
24	Texas A&M
25	West Virginia	5
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Miami (Florida) (#4), California (#6), Arizona State (#7), North Carolina (#9), Kentucky (#16), Southern Miss (#17), Houston (#18), Missouri (#21), Washington (#22), Clemson (#23), Mississippi (#25).

Observations:

• Iowa?!?  Even after the Penn State upset, the ascendancy of Iowa to #4 surprised me.  That early struggle they had against Northern Iowa had set me against them as a possibly good team, but they really have been impressive since then.  Their biggest boon is a schedule that ranks toughest in the nation so far, thanks to their opponents generally winning out otherwise, and the opponents of their opponents generally winning out.  Beatpaths are very much in their favor at this point.  But their pass efficiency defense is up with the best of them as well, and only their passing offense is holding their numbers back.  It's a great early resume from a team that nobody was talking about prior to Saturday.
• Virginia Tech and Miami - too low?  I feel they are, and I wonder if the win/loss component is too heavy at the moment.  With early schedules, the difference between undefeated and one loss against a major team doesn't really carry a lot of meaning.  Perhaps this should be de-emphasized early on.  I pass that to you as a question because it seems counter-intuitive.
• Auburn?  After starting 4-0 with a prolific offense and wins over West Virginia and Mississippi State, you'd think they would be higher than LSU.  But in a bizarre twist, their strength of schedule is far lower than I anticipated (#102 out of all D-1A teams).  This is because their opponents (and the opponents of their oppoents) aren't winning.  Given the struggles they had with West Virginia and that they likely would have lost if WVU hadn't handed them the game, maybe this is a bit of an early red flag.  But I still think they should be higher at this point.
• Texas A&M Another team making me think that Win/Loss counts for too much early on.  They have played nobody.  And there's no reason to expect them to be top-25ish.  Over time, they'll undoubtedly crater downward where they belong, but I'm willing to listen to a reason to bump them down right now.
• TCU Sporting the mid-major curse of the poor strength of schedule, they stand to rise naturally as other metrics take on more weight.  But for now, they feel a little low.
• Nebraska  Average schedule, no notable weaknesses.

There you go.  Hack away!