CAVEATS: Fine print. Also, this: all of the following information is gleaned exclusively from the NCAA statistics and does not account for things like injuries, shared playing time, the 24-hour Ineligibility Influenza, and other stuff difficult to see in the stats from a bird's eye view. This is a long post, so I've put the conclusions and predictions before and after the meat for those lacking the endurance to make it to the end.
Sketchy Conclusions
- Auburn and South Carolina have played very similar and difficult schedules. The Gamecocks lost by three to a good Kentucky team and really had only one game (Arkansas) that made you go huh. Most importantly, these two teams have met once already this season, and Auburn won by only eight despite Carolina shooting off both its own feet and both its own hands on its last four drives.
- Everyone knows intuitively that the Tigers' offense is fantastic and that SC's isn't as good, but what you may not have realized is that SC's really isn't even much better than average, even with Marcus Lattimore tearing up the field on occasion. Carolina's rushing offense begins and ends with Lattimore, but for Auburn, it begins with Cam Newton, goes through Michael Dyer, takes a trip to Onterio McCalebb, and then ends with Newton. When Newton's passing, he redistributes wealth as well. Stephen Garcia also spreads it around, sometimes throwing it to Alshon Jeffery's left shoulder, sometimes to his right, and occassionaly hitting him in the numbers, which really isn't necessary and just deprives fans of fantastic highlights.
- Both teams have excellent rush defenses and are suspect against the pass. As far as wreaking havoc in the opponent's back field, Auburn gets it done with a single Nick Fairley, but South Carolina gets it done even better with a pack of coyotes. Seriously, have you ever heard a pack of coyotes? Those at the link are only half as terrifying as the ones in the pasture behind my house.
- Special teams plays are probably your best bet for bathroom breaks, because neither team really shines here.
- The numbers say AUBURN in all caps, but the drive chart from the last game screams SQUANDERED in Garnet and Black.
Predictions
- Auburn 31, South Carolina 28.
Schedule and Animated Drive Charts
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| Southern Miss. Golden Eagles | win 41 - 13 | coverage | coverage | win 52 - 26 | Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
| Georgia Bulldogs | win 17 - 6 | coverage | coverage | win 17 - 14 | @ Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
| Furman Paladins | win 38 - 19 | coverage | coverage | win 27 - 24 | Clemson Tigers |
| @ Auburn Tigers | loss 27 - 35 | coverage | coverage | win 35 - 27 | South Carolina Gamecocks |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | win 35 - 21 | coverage | coverage | win 52 - 3 | ULM Warhawks |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | loss 28 - 31 | coverage | coverage | win 37 - 34 | @ Kentucky Wildcats |
| @ Vanderbilt Commodores | win 21 - 7 | coverage | coverage | win 65 - 43 | Arkansas Razorbacks |
| Tennessee Volunteers | win 38 - 24 | coverage | coverage | win 24 - 17 | LSU Tigers |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | loss 20 - 41 | coverage | coverage | win 51 - 31 | @ Mississippi Rebels |
| @ Florida Gators | win 36 - 14 | coverage | coverage | win 62 - 24 | Chattanooga Mocs |
| Troy Trojans | win 69 - 24 | coverage | coverage | win 49 - 31 | Georgia Bulldogs |
| @ Clemson Tigers | win 29 - 7 | coverage | coverage | win 28 - 27 | @ Alabama Crimson Tide |
Okay, so Auburn's beaten everyone on their schedule, including South Carolina. The Gamecocks have two losses in addition to that one: Kentucky and Arkansas, the latter of which is really the only truly puzzling loss of the season. There are a bunch of interesting observations buried in those two schedules, but beware of the conclusions you draw from them.
Here's the drive chart of the prior meeting between these two:
Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot.
Oh, yeah. Now I remember that game. Auburn fumbled twice and missed two field goals, but Carolina absolutely imploded at the end, giving up four turnovers on the last four drives, yet losing by only a touchdown and two point conversion. That had to hurt.
National Unit Rankings
| OFFENSIVE RANKINGS | ||||
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| Category | National Rank |
Actual | National Rank |
Actual |
| Rushing Offense | 6 | 291.25 | 58 | 155.50 |
| Passing Offense | 76 | 198.83 | 43 | 239.17 |
| Total Offense | 8 | 490.08 | 48 | 394.67 |
| Scoring Offense | 7 | 41.58 | 27 | 33.25 |
| Passing Efficiency | 2 | 183.98 | 15 | 154.36 |
| Sacks Allowed | 50 | 1.75 | 72 | 2.08 |
Offensive observations. Auburn has oneathem fancy new fuel-injected turbo offenses. Top ten in everything but passing yards, which they make up for in efficiency. I'm a little surprised to see just how mediocre the Gamecocks' offense is, especially the running game. I mean, I've seen Marcus Lattimore run. So how is the rushing game almost smack dab in the middle of the pack? Anyway, the Tigers' offense is better than the Gamecocks. We knew that, sure, but just how much better is a bit of a surprise. At least to me.
| DEFENSIVE RANKINGS | ||||
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| Category | National Rank |
Actual | National Rank |
Actual |
| Rushing Defense | 10 | 108.00 | 5 | 93.17 |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 75 | 133.23 | 77 | 133.65 |
| Total Defense | 58 | 363.25 | 33 | 338.67 |
| Scoring Defense | 57 | 25.08 | 25 | 20.17 |
| Pass Defense | 106 | 255.25 | 99 | 245.50 |
| Sacks | 26 | 2.50 | 3 | 3.25 |
| Tackles For Loss | T-23 | 6.83 | T-13 | 7.25 |
Defensive observations. Auburn's pass defense stinks, but Carolina's isn't really any better. Both teams have solid rushing defenses that will be tested tomorrow. Really, these guys are like mirrors, and the only advantage that jumps out is the Gamecocks' better ability to get sacks. Which, you know, is a bit frightening, because I've seen Nick Fairley. You've seen Nick Fairley. Craig McElwainey (yeah, he can't remember his name, either) has seen The Rampaging Shadow Of Nick Fairley. So who are these sackmasters? See below.
| SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS | ||||
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| Category | National Rank |
Actual | National Rank |
Actual |
| Net Punting | 92 | 34.67 | 38 | 37.33 |
| Punt Returns | 93 | 6.00 | T-111 | 3.65 |
| Kickoff Returns | 16 | 24.41 | 87 | 20.58 |
| Turnover Margin | 35 | .33 | T-32 | .42 |
Special teams and turnovers observations. For some reason "tied for 111th" strikes me as really funny. I understand "tied for 1st" or "tied for some slot toward the top," but being grouped together with a bunch of folks whose claim to infamy is having one nostril above water . . . well, maybe it's just me.
So where was I? Right. Nothing to see here, really. That temptation to conclude that Auburn is much better at kickoff returns? Four yards better. You can stay here and gawk at that if you like, but I'm moving on to the monkeys because they throw poo.
Stastical Comparison
Here's how the teams looked when the RTT BlogPoll Computery Thing chewed them up and spit them out all wet and sloppy like.
| Rank | Team | WL | SOS | PED | RD | 3DO | TD | PEO | OPPG | TO | 3DD |
| 5 | |
1 | 24 | 75 | 10 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 57 | 8 | 38 |
| 14 | |
19 | 25 | 77 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 15 | 25 | 48 | 44 |
Yeah. Not a whole lot of difference here. Similarly tough schedules. Essentially the same at pass efficiency defense. Marginal advantage for SoCar in rushing defense and the converse for Auburn in third down offense. And on and on and on. This is going to be a good game.
Players to watch for
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| Category | Player | National Rank | Actual | Player | National Rank | Actual |
| OFFENSE | ||||||
| Rushing | Cam Newton | 11 | 111.33 | Marcus Lattimore | 20 | 101.27 |
| Michael Dyer | 64 | 73.83 | ||||
| Onterio McCalebb | 97 | 61.08 | ||||
| Mario Fannin | 33.36 | |||||
| Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game) | Cam Newton | 2 | 185.57 | Stephen Garcia | 14 | 157.72 |
| Total Offense | Cam Newton | 11 | 299.17 | Stephen Garcia | 42 | 236.33 |
| Michael Dyer | 73.83 | Marcus Lattimore | 101.27 | |||
| Onterio McCalebb | 61.08 | |||||
| Receptions Per Game | Darvin Adams | 3.42 | Alshon Jeffery | T-22 | 6.25 | |
| Terrell Zachery | 3.08 | Tori Gurley | 3.25 | |||
| Receiving Yards Per Game | Darvin Adams | 95 | 57.67 | Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 112.58 |
| Terrell Zachery | 48.58 | |||||
| Emory Blake | 34.08 | |||||
| Scoring | Cam Newton | T-9 | 9.50 | Marcus Lattimore | 6 | 10.36 |
| Wes Byrum | 17 | 8.92 | Spencer Lanning | T-57 | 7.67 | |
| Onterio McCalebb | 4.50 | |||||
Offensive observations. The blind man holding some part of the elephant might say that Marcus Lattimore's legs (worth 101 yards per game) essentially cancel out Cam Newton's (worth 111). That's all well and good until you realize there's more to an elephant than its trunk. Auburn's rushing box up top also includes another 74 yards on the ground from Michael Dyer and another 61 from Onterio McCalebb who's name makes me wanna wear a tuque and a kilt. I'm actually wearing that to work today.
That narrow-visioned man also fails to see Cam Newton's arm which, like the pachyderm's stench, is an essential element of who he is. (Sidenote: We got to feed an elephant in Orlando a few months ago. My shirt still smells.) Newton's 2nd in the nation in passing efficiency. Stephen Garcia's not too shabby, either, but he's more like orangutan stink. Concentrated and powerful, just smaller.
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| Get this close to an elephant at your apparel's peril. |
Carolina probably has the edge in wide receivers with awesome Alshon Jeffery, who's the nation's 22nd-best full service gas station attendant and also catches passes at a rate of about six per game for 113 yards. Auburn has more; South Carolina has better.
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| Category | Player | National Rank | Actual | Player | National Rank | Actual |
| DEFENSE | ||||||
| Interceptions | Josh Bynes | T-87 | .25 | DeVonte Holloman | .17 | |
| Demond Washington | .17 | Stephon Gilmore | .17 | |||
| Zac Etheridge | .17 | |||||
| Sacks | Nick Fairley | T-17 | .79 | Melvin Ingram | T-33 | .67 |
| Antoine Carter | .41 | Devin Taylor | T-36 | .62 | ||
| Cliff Matthews | .38 | |||||
| Travian Robertson | .33 | |||||
| Antonio Allen | .25 | |||||
| Stephon Gilmore | .25 | |||||
| Tackles | ||||||
| Tackles For Loss | Nick Fairley | T-5 | 1.67 | Devin Taylor | T-74 | 1.00 |
| Antoine Carter | .91 | Antonio Allen | T-92 | .95 | ||
| Travian Robertson | .83 | |||||
| Melvin Ingram | .75 | |||||
Defensive observations. Speaking of more versus better, Auburn has Nick Fairley, who will eat your face and take the flag, thank you very much. They also have Antoine Carter, who loves the leftovers, but after that, well there are four blank boxes filled with finger-lickin'-good Gamecocks. And what's with all of the musician names, Carolina? James Ingram, James Taylor, Dave Matthews, and David Gilmore would make a really strange band. Put 'em in helmets and pads, and you'd have something not even Pink Floyd could have imagined no matter what they took before picking up the pen.
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| Category | Player | National Rank | Actual | Player | National Rank | Actual |
| SPECIAL TEAMS, ETC. | ||||||
| Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game) | Spencer Lanning | 26 | 43.80 | |||
| Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Quindarius Carr | 61 | 5.68 | |||
| Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Demond Washington | 47 | 25.21 | Bryce Sherman | 20.71 | |
| Field Goals | Wes Byrum | T-39 | 1.25 | Spencer Lanning | T-39 | 1.25 |
| All-Purpose Runners | Cam Newton | 56 | 114.83 | Marcus Lattimore | 38 | 131.09 |
| Onterio McCalebb | 83.75 | Alshon Jeffery | 64 | 112.58 | ||
| Demond Washington | 81.92 | |||||
Special teams. A whole lotta little-better-than-average here with the possible exception of Carolina punter Spencer Lanning, who's a little-better-than-a-little-better-than average.
Head to Head Comparisons
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Last Game
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Prediction
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| Auburn rush v. SoCar rush defense | 291.25 (#6) |
93.17 (#5) |
334 | 250 |
| Auburn pass v. SoCar pass defense | 198.83 (#76) |
245.50 (#99) |
158 | 240 |
| SoCar rush v. Auburn rush defense | 108 (#10) |
155.50 (#58) |
79 | 150 |
| SoCar pass v. Auburn pass defense | 255.25 (#106) |
239.17 (#43) |
305 | 220 |
| Auburn scoring offense v. SoCar scoring defense | 41.58 (#7) |
20.17 (#25) |
35 | 31 |
| SoCar scoring offense v. Auburn scoring defense | 25.08 (#57) |
33.25 (#27) |
27 | 28 |
These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations. The general analytical framework is a bit different than how we normally do this because these two teams have actually played each other once before. Here's the thought process: Auburn is averaging X in a certain category. SC averages Y against that, and in the prior game Z happened. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. We have a whole season of data, but football is a relatively short season, so the predictions are still pretty sketchy.
This week's example: Auburn is averaging about 291 yards per game on the grounds. First, wow. Now, the Gamecocks, on average, hold their opponents to 93 rushing yards. Something's gotta give, right? Not necessarily. When these two teams played each other earlier in the season, the Tigers actually rushed for even more than their average -- 334, which . . . double wows. Can they do that again against a great defense? Who knows, but I'm playing the odds and guessing they'll work their way back to the still-excellent mean, so I'm predicting 250.
The thought process wasn't always the same in all categories, and I gave a pretty good deal of weight to South Carolina's self-mutiliation on their last four drives the last time around. Mostly, though, I just think it's going to be close.
Sketchy Conclusions
- Auburn and South Carolina have played very similar and difficult schedules. The Gamecocks lost by three to a good Kentucky team and really had only one game (Arkansas) that made you go huh. Most importantly, these two teams have met once already this season, and Auburn won by only eight despite Carolina shooting off both its own feet and both its own hands on its last four drives.
- Everyone knows intuitively that the Tigers' offense is fantastic and that SC's isn't as good, but what you may not have realized is that SC's really isn't even much better than average, even with Marcus Lattimore tearing up the field on occasion. Carolina's rushing offense begins and ends with Lattimore, but for Auburn, it begins with Cam Newton, goes through Michael Dyer, takes a trip to Onterio McCalebb, and then ends with Newton. When Newton's passing, he redistributes wealth as well. Stephen Garcia also spreads it around, sometimes throwing it to Alshon Jeffery's left shoulder, sometimes to his right, and occassionaly hitting him in the numbers, which really isn't necessary and just deprives fans of fantastic highlights.
- Both teams have excellent rush defenses and are suspect against the pass. As far as wreaking havoc in the opponent's back field, Auburn gets it done with a single Nick Fairley, but South Carolina gets it done even better with a pack of coyotes. Seriously, have you ever heard a pack of coyotes? Those at the link are only half as terrifying as the ones in the pasture behind my house.
- Special teams plays are probably your best bet for bathroom breaks, because neither team really shines here.
- The numbers say AUBURN in all caps, but the drive chart from the last game screams SQUANDERED in Garnet and Black.
Predictions
- Auburn 31, South Carolina 28.