RTT Locks & Keys Week 10

Brad's working 'til midnight all week and my department has a conference starting this evening, so Locks & Keys are short and sweet this week. Which, let's face it, still means this baby will probably be 3,000 words. We're loquacious, verbose, and even wordy. It's our lot in life. Without further adieu Adu ado, LOCKS & KEYS.

A LOOK BACK

SHEP'S PICKS

• Mississippi State -10 over Kentucky. The Wildcats didn't all of a sudden get a lot better because they beat Jacksonville State 38-14. MSU was way overrated at the beginning of the season and currently sits at 3-4, but those losses were close ones to Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. They will handle this one with ease in Lexington. [Western Bulldogs cruise past Kentucky. Who doesn't? 1-0]
• Clemson -4 over Georgia Tech. The oddsmakers must believe the Tigers are going to have a letdown game SOMEDAY, right? Right? Well, I've ridden Clemson's coattails all year along with Oklahoma State, and Dabo's boys don't let me down. Tech has lost its last two games -- to Virginia and then an embarrassing 24-7 setback to Miami last week. If anything, they'll be bummed. And Clemson has that "we believe" vibe I got from Auburn about this time last year. Take the Tigers. [We believe that we've somehow turned back into Clemson. Midnight happens. 1-1]
• Michigan State +4 over Nebraska. Just three weeks ago, Wisconsin was spanking the Huskers 48-17, and we all saw the Sparty strike that beat the Badgers last week. This is going to be a really, really good football game, but I just can't believe that Nebraska is favored. It's going to be tight, but I like MSU to win outright. That said, I'll take the four points I'm given and pray Dantonio's boys don't have a letdown. [Prayers are answered in the negative. And it's not really a good football game. 1-2]
  
• Arkansas -10 over Vanderbilt. I know the Razorbacks struggled against Ole Miss in building a 17-point deficit last weekend. I know James Franklin has the Dores playing much better and a defense that is turning heads. That said, this just doesn't look like enough to me. I think Arkansas wins this one going away, and Vandy will start its regular late-season fade. [Bad time to bet on late-season fades: South Carolina didn't start theirs either. Arkansas probably lucky to even win. 1-3]
  
• California -5 over UCLA. Rick Neuheisel is in trouble. After a 48-12 loss to an Arizona team that just fired its coach last week, another lopsided L could end his tenure before the season is over. Cal is playing much better, waxing Utah last week. Keenan Allen alone is worth five points. [Cal still can't play road games, and the country's hottest seat gets cooler. Bruins roll. 1-4]
  
• Bowling Green -3.5 over Kent State. Well, I did it. I went with a game I really don't know anything about instead of taking my Oklahoma State horses this week. The Pokes were favored by 14 over Baylor and RGIII. While I think they cover, I also think that line is about right. Don't worry; I won't quit picking them, but I also can't bet against the RGIII Magic, even with two losses. I agonized over this, but I think Dave Clawson's boys giving up just 3.5 against one of the worst teams in the country -- a 1-6 Golden Flashes team -- was too good to pass up. Now, of course, Okie State will cover and the Clawfense won't. Then, maybe I'll hate Dave as much as Will does. [Okie State covers with ease, and the Clawfence doesn't even win. Begin to hate, but don't let it ruin the Clawdenfreude. 1-5]

• WVU-7 @ The State University of The Garden State: WVU burned me last week and burned me bad. And I mean real bad.  I may even have a colorable claim against the University for violating my 8th Amendment rights under the U.S. Constitution ("...cruel and unusual punishments [shall not be] inflicted."). I'll look into that later.  But in the meantime, I'm going right back to the Mounties.  The 'Cuse game was an outlier, and the Mounties will bounce back.  Plus, they're auditioning for the Big 12, so they'll be playing extra hard. [Don't start playing extra hard, but make up late to win by 10. 1-0]
• Mississippi State-10 @ Kentucky: Mississippi State has continued to fall short of preseason expectations.  They were supposed to be legit; they're mediocre.  I am aware of all this.  But I am also aware of another undeniable fact.  It's a little known fact and so you may not have even heard.  But The University of Kentucky is TERRIBLE at football.  Not mediocre.  Not below average. No no. Abjectly freaking terrible.  MSU should win this comfortably. [Comfortable. Because it's Kentucky. 2-0]
• Arkansas-10 @ Vanderbilt: I don't think this game will be close.  Vandy can't put points on the board, and Arkansas can. [What the Vandy offense? 2-1]
• Wisconsin-7 @ tOSU: What do y'all think this spread would be if that hail mary wasn't caught last Saturday?  Like WVU, Wisconsin is a team that I got burned on last week.  Like WVU, I see them bouncing back with authority. [Hail Mary goes the wrong way for Wisky two weeks straight. 2-2]
• Hawaii-7 @ Idaho:  Idaho is terrible.  Hawaii lost badly to a team, UNLV, that is actually even worse than Idaho.  But that game was OBVIOUSLY fixed.  So hopefully this one isn't fixed. [Fixed again. 2-3]
• South Carolina-3.5 @ Tennessee: Sorry guys.  I'll believe it when I see it. [Don't believe it yet. 3-3]

Shep drops to 28-23-1, a respectable 55%. Kid moves to 19-32-1, improving slightly to 37%. I_S finally moves above the coin flip, at 26-25-1, 51%. 

***

FIVE KEYS FOR TENNESSEE

• Treatin' With A Beatin'. Even though the Vols have had a rough season, one thing -- at least -- that we can look at and feel good about is the fact that we've dominated the teams we're supposed to dominate. That's a small, insignificant consolation prize, sure, but it sure beats losing to Wyoming or barely playing with UAB. Middle Tennessee is not a good football team, nowhere near what it has been the past couple of years. This should not be a game UT has any trouble winning. It would be nice to have a confidence game for Worley and a game where the team can search for some new playmakers in the second half. Just stay focused and take care of business. 
• Put Training Wheels on the Playcalling:  We all loved watching the precision and aggressive moxie that was a Tyler Bray aerial show.  And we all hope to see that again very soon. . . from Tyler Bray.  We don't, however, want to see Justin Worley trying to do his best impression of Tyler Bray.  An ambitious playcalling itinerary does nobody any favors. . . except perhaps MTSU.  Keep things simple.  Vanilla.  Short passes.  Dump-offs to Lane.  Screens to Young.  Short tosses to Rivera.  We DO want to see Justin Worley throwing some passes, but let's make sure he masters Algebra II before diving in to Differential Equations.
• Support the Municipality Justin Worley. Watch the first half last week, and you'll see Justin Worley looking extremely jittery early but settling in with some nice throws in the second quarter. In the third quarter, it went south quickly. With the Vols trailing, he forced a couple throws and was rewarded with a couple interceptions. My question: how does it affect his confidence (and need to force throws) if Da'Rick Rogers doesn't drop a perfect throw that should've given the Vols a touchdown and a halftime lead? When you have a freshman quarterback, the guys around him need to make plays, make him look good, keep him confident. That means Tauren Poole and Marlin Lane need to hit holes hard, Da'Rick Rogers, Zach Rogers, and DeAnthony Arnett need to run good routes and catch passes, and the offensive line needs to protect. Don't give Worley a reason to lose his mojo. 
• Speaking of Playmakers... I'll keep writing this until it happens: We absolutely need to find a way to get Devrin Young touches on offense. The entire stadium holds its breath when he receives a kick or a punt. He's dynamic, and how long has it been since we had somebody like him? LaMarcus "The Toker" Coker? Why don't we have a Dynamo Devrin package? Why can't we run him in the Wildcat or fling a bubble screen out to him? It's time to get him involved. He's too good to stand on the sideline.
• Keep The Defensive Pedal Down. That was a pretty good team the Vols ripped two turnovers away from last weekend. Sure, UT didn't convert Prentiss Waggner's interception and 50-plus yard return or Brian Randolph's strip into points, but that was an element we've not seen all year from this group. The Vols are entering a do-or-die stretch that isn't necessarily a given that will result in bowl eligibility. They desperately need some takeaways and big plays defensively. That starts here. Whether it be a pick-six, a game-changing interception or a big fumble recovery or two, it's time we saw this team make its own breaks.