Tennessee Volunteers vs. Troy Trojans: statistic-based game preview

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats. Also, it's a long post, so we're putting the conclusions up top and the basis for those conclusions, including the head-to-head chart, below.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Tennessee has lost five games, and those have been to #7 Florida, #6 Georgia, #15 Mississippi State, #1 Alabama, and #8 South Carolina. Troy has lost four games, and those have been to Louisiana, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky, and Florida Atlantic, all unranked except for Mississippi State, to whom they lost by six at home and to whom we lost by 10 on the road. The Vols schedule is the 5th-most difficult in the nation, and the Trojans' is 115th.
• Troy has a good passing offense and a good total offense because of that and an average run offense. Their defense is middle-of-the-road, and they are allergic to the opponent's backfield. Special teams is not very good, but they can punt well enough.
• Running back Shawn Southward runs well in the right direction, and QB Corey Robinson spreads it around a lot, including to Chandler Worthy, who is a receiver with a name worth saying.
• The head-to-head chart has the Vols getting over 500 yards and nearly 50 points for a 25-point win.

Predictions

• Tennessee 49, Troy 24

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

@ UAB Blazers	9/1/12	win 39 - 29	coverage
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns	9/8/12	loss 24 - 37	coverage
Mississippi St. Bulldogs	9/15/12	loss 24 - 30	coverage
@ North Texas Mean Green	9/22/12	win 14 - 7	coverage
@ South Alabama Jaguars	9/29/12	win 31 - 10	coverage
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	10/11/12	loss 26 - 31	coverage
Fla. International Golden Panthers	10/20/12	win 38 - 37	coverage
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	10/27/12	loss 27 - 34	coverage
@ N.C. State Wolfpack	8/31/12	win 35 - 21	coverage
Georgia State Panthers	9/8/12	win 51 - 13	coverage
Florida Gators	9/15/12	loss 20 - 37	coverage
Akron Zips	9/22/12	win 47 - 26	coverage
@ Georgia Bulldogs	9/29/12	loss 44 - 51	coverage
@ Mississippi St. Bulldogs	10/13/12	loss 31 - 41	coverage
Alabama Crimson Tide	10/20/12	loss 13 - 44	coverage
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	10/27/12	loss 35 - 38	coverage

According to the NCAA's "Toughest Schedule" PDF, Tennessee's schedule is now 5th, and this fella Troy's is 115th, and they've lost nearly as many games. That has to be a good sign, right?

Here's the drive chart for the two teams' only common opponent:

That thing makes it look like Mr. Trojans would have had a very good offensive performance against the Bulldogs if only he could have not fumbled twice, not thrown two interceptions, and not missed a field goal on five consecutive possessions. So maybe he's just an unlucky chap. Fortunately for us, we are a very lucky football team. #honeywhere'smysarcasmfont?!

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Oh, good. Troy's got a Passing Offense in the top 25 and a Total Offense just outside it. Fortunately, he can't run the ball. He is, after all, just one guy. He can't do it all.

Defensive observations. Oh, good, and I mean it this time. Our offense should have a football field day this Saturday. Nothing better than middle of the road, and a pass efficiency defense in the cellar (hi!) along with no ability to pressure the quarterback or disturb things behind the line of scrimmage.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Boy can punt.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. I'm confused by all of these names. Where's Troy? Has that joke worn itself out yet? Yes! Okay.

Senior RB Shawn Southward, which has to be the best name for a running back this season if not EVER, is actually ranked 45th in the nation, so watch out for him. But with a name like that, I wonder if they only play him every other quarter. Bum-dum-chump crash.

Junior QB Corey Robinson seems to be okay at his job responsibilities, and he does a good job of spreading it around.

Defense. Well. Senior Tony Davis looks like the guy you're going to key on along the line, but honestly, Tennessee's offensive line shouldn't have any problems here unless their collective heads aren't screwed on right. The secondary, too, looks balanced, but not especially potent.

Special teams. Chandler Worthy. I just wanted to say his name.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Troy rush defense	158.75 (#68)	166 (#67)	Georgia (157) (#58)	197	200
UT pass v. Troy pass defense	297.25 (#21)	233.38 (#62)	Akron (241.22) (#73)	401	330
Troy rush v. UT rush defense	181.50 (#85)	167.25 (#55)	MS St. (163.75) (#60)	141	160
Troy pass v. UT pass defense	271.88 (#103)	292.38 (#22)	NC State/Akron (306.88/316) (#18/#13)	288/229	250
UT scoring offense v. Troy scoring defense	34.50 (#30)	26.88 (#62)	NC State (23) (#41)	35	49
Troy scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	33.88 (#101)	27.88 (#65)	NC State/Akron (27.88/28) (#65/#63)	21/26	24
Again with the caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

If you're new to this chart, here's how it works, taking Troy's predicted score as an example. UT is generally allowing 33.88 points per game (gulp). Troy generally gets about 28, which is exactly what NC State is averaging and just a tad less than Akron is averaging. Against those two teams, the Vols allowed 21 and 26 points respectively. So the educated guess for Troy's points is 24. Why is Tennessee's score so far off from the best comp? Because that best comp is not particularly close, and because of the two teams' respective strength of schedules. And just because I think we're lighting up the scoreboard this week.

Sketchy Conclusions

• Tennessee has lost five games, and those have been to #7 Florida, #6 Georgia, #15 Mississippi State, #1 Alabama, and #8 South Carolina. Troy has lost four games, and those have been to Louisiana, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky, and Florida Atlantic, all unranked except for Mississippi State, to whom they lost by six at home and to whom we lost by 10 on the road. The Vols schedule is the 5th-most difficult in the nation, and the Trojans' is 115th.
• Troy has a good passing offense and a good total offense because of that and an average run offense. Their defense is middle-of-the-road, and they are allergic to the opponent's backfield. Special teams is not very good, but they can punt well enough.
• Running back Shawn Southward runs well in the right direction, and QB Corey Robinson spreads it around a lot, including to Chandler Worthy, who is a receiver with a name worth saying.
• The head-to-head chart has the Vols getting over 500 yards and nearly 50 points for a 25-point win.

Predictions

• Tennessee 49, Troy 24