College Football Week 6 Preliminary Analysis

My very very preliminary thoughts on some of the spreads for this week in college football.

UCLA-6 over Utah: The Thursday night craziness factor is ameliorated by the fact that UCLA is coming off a bye week. And also by the fact that UCLA is better than Utah at football. Substantially better.

Utah State-6.5 over BYU: I have no choice here but to enlist the services of the one and only CHUCKIE KEETON.

Georgia-10.5 over Tennessee: I don't understand this spread. Georgia is the one of the best teams in the country. The only possible justifications for this line are: (a) this is a letdown game for UGA after the emotional LSU win, (b) Mark Richt has a terrible haircut and is arguably terrible at coaching the game of football, or (3) Tennessee will be rocking smokey grey uniforms, which is worth like three touchdowns. I'm not buying any of the above. UGA should work us over by three touchdowns without breaking a sweat.

Texas State+11 over UL-Lafayette: Last weekend I may or may not have placed a wager on Wyoming in their game against Texas State. What I mean is, of course I didn't place such a wager because gambling isn't legal in our country, but if I would have, it would not have been a wager that would have worked out for me. And so I'm jumping on the Texas State bandwagon.

FIU+17 over Southern Mississippi: FIU is certifiably atrocious at the game of football. They might be the worst team in the FBS not named Georgia State, and I generally caution against taking teams that are certifiably putried against the spread. But I just have serious issues with a team that hasn't won a football game in the last 16 tries being favored to win a football game by 17 points. It just doesn't compute.

Ole Miss-2.5 over Auburn: I believe in Guz Malzahn, and there is no question that Auburn is a substantially improved team from last year. In a lot of ways, I think Auburn this year is basically Ole Miss of last year. And since I think Ole Miss of this year is better than Ole Miss of last year, it follows that I think Ole Miss is just better at the game of football this year than Auburn.

Oregon-38.5 over Colorado: No team has made a bigger jump from last year to this year than Colorado. Last year Colorado was historically bad, and this year they just sort of suck. I'm not surprised by this transformation. Colorado's new coach is Mike Macintyre, a guy I strongly advocated for the open Tennessee position (only to have my opinion ignored by the powers that by), and a guy who in two years turned San Jose State from a 1-12 team to a 10-2 team. You don't do that unless you're a really really good football coach. All that being said, Colorado still isn't exactly "good" at football, and Oregon has been an absolute wrecking ball this year.

Clemson-13 over Syracuse: Clemson is not going to Clemson themselves this year. I'm certain of it.

New Mexico-9 over New Mexico State: New Mexico is bad. New Mexico State is really really really bad.

FAU+4.5 over UAB: I think the wrong team is favored in this one.

Vanderbilt-2 over Missouri: none of us know a thing about Mizzou, but we do know something about Vanderbilt. We know that they nearly beat a solid Ole Miss squad and were competitive on the road against a solid South Carolina squad. Which suggests to me that they're actually a pretty decent team.

LSU-9.5 over Mississippi State: I was ranking the SEC this week, and I forgot that MSU was in the league. I think that speaks volumes.

Rice+3 over Tulsa: I have the sneaking suspicion that Tulsa is really bad at football this year.

Rutgers-4.5 over SMU: Garrett Gilbert is still the QB at SMU and he is still bad at playing the quarterback position.

UCF-10 over Memphis: this one and the New Mexico game are the two games where I'm more confident that the favored teams will win than cover the spread. So consider both faint-hearted.

Northern Illinois-9 over Kent State: I feel like the Fighting Jordan Lynch's may officially be baaaaack.

UTEP PK over Louisiana Tech: somebody convince me that Louisiana Tech is something other than hot garbage.

WVU+27.5 over Baylor: too many points.

Maryland+15.5 over FSU: dont' look now, but Maryland is actually pretty decent at football.

Texas Tech-17.5 over Kansas: Kansas blows. And I believe in Kliff Kingsbury

Emma's Tacos over Arian's Tacos: Don't believe me? Well then we'll just have to ask Emma whether her tacos are better than Arian's what do you think, Emma?


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