Tennessee Vols vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: statistical game preview

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent from a statistics perspective. CAVEATS: You'll get tired of hearing this, but yeah, we know that small sample sets preclude concrete conclusions. One game (or even two or three) doesn't provide enough data to approach the predictive accuracy of even a Magic 8 Ball, but that doesn't mean we're not going to look at what little we have. The results from 2012 and 2011 are understandably a mixed bag, but they also suggest that it's a worthwhile endeavor.

Also, this: All of the following information is gleaned exclusively from the official NCAA statistics and the awesome CFBStats.com and does not account for things like injuries, shared playing time, suspensions, and other stuff difficult to see in the stats from a bird's eye view under time constraints. We generally put the "conclusions" and "predictions" at the top of the post, with the data upon which those are based below.

Head to Head Comparisons

Here's how the statsy preview machine did for last week's game between the Vols and the Gamecocks.

Prediction	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	28	230	120	350
South Carolina	35	200	210	410

Actual Results	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	23	146	179	325
South Carolina	21	218	166	384

I'll summarize that as "pretty good on total yards, not so good on score." With that in mind, let's take a look at what it spits out this week for the game against Alabama.

Head-to-Head, from Tennessee's Perspective

					Comps				Result against Comps		Prediction
					Closest Lower		Closest Higher		Closest Lower	Closest Higher
					Team		Team		Team	Team
	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value
Tennessee rushing offense vs. Alabama rushing defense	37	201.71	8	98.29	Florida		None		Florida	None	66
					12	100.71			66
Tennessee passing offense vs. Alabama passing defense	111	166.3	9	176.7	South Carolina		Florida		South Carolina	Florida	167
					19	199.3	6	172.4	179	154
Tennessee rushing defense vs. Alabama rushing offense	85	181.71	25	211.71	Western Kentucky		South Carolina		Western Kentucky	South Carolina	195
					34	202.71	19	224.57	171	218
Tennessee passing defense vs. Alabama passing offense	65	230.1	54	248.7	South Carolina		Western Kentucky		South Carolina	Western Kentucky	194
					56	247.3	37	270.6	166	222
Tennessee scoring offense vs. Alabama scoring defense	60	30.4	1	9.7	Florida		None		Florida	None	17
					8	16.3			17
Tennessee scoring defense vs. Alabama scoring offense	65	27	16	40.7	Georgia		Oregon		Georgia	Oregon	47
					28	36	2	57.6	34	59
Caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and this early in the season, the guesses are particularly sketchy. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

Head-to-Head, from Alabama's Perspective

					Comps				Result against Comps		Prediction
					Closest Lower		Closest Higher		Closest Lower	Closest Higher
					Team		Team		Team	Team
	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value
Alabama rushing offense vs. Tennessee rushing defense	25	211.71	85	181.71	Kentucky		Mississippi		Kentucky	Mississippi	277
					108	213.33	80	176.29	299	254
Alabama passing offense vs. Tennessee passing defense	54	248.7	65	230.1	Georgia State		Kentucky		Georgia State	Kentucky	333
					82	242.7	53	224	296	369
Alabama rushing defense vs. Tennessee rushing offense	8	98.29	37	201.71	Colorado State		Arkansas		Colorado State	Arkansas	108
					56	176.57	30	209.88	51	165
Alabama passing defense vs. Tennessee passing offense	9	176.7	111	166.3	Arkansas		Kentucky		Arkansas	Kentucky	84
					116	146.6	94	201.5	91	76
Alabama scoring offense vs. Tennessee scoring defense	16	40.7	65	27	Mississippi		Virginia Tech		Mississippi	Virginia Tech	30
					72	27.3	5	15	25	35
Alabama scoring defense vs. Tennessee scoring offense	1	9.7	60	30.4	Mississippi		Colorado State		Mississippi	Colorado State	3
					72	28.7	45	33.1	0	6

All of the above is compiled using the ever awesome statistical database maintained by CFBStats.com.

When Tennessee runs the ball: We're getting just over 200 yards per game on the ground, but Alabama's allowing a little less than 100 per game. That's the best run defense we've faced all year, but it's only a little better than Florida's, and against Florida we rushed for 66 yards. Yikes. The same analysis from their perspective gives a result of 108 yards, so I'm going to go with 90 yards rushing for the Vols this Saturday.

When Tennessee passes: We're still getting only 164 yards through the air per game. Alabama's allowing 177 or so, which most closely resembles Florida's pass defense, against which we got 154 yards. The result of the analysis from their perspective is 84 (yikes again!), so my prediction is maybe 110 passing yards for Tennessee.

When Alabama runs the ball: We're holding teams to just over 180 rushing yards per game. The Tide are getting just over 210. This is just about in the middle of South Carolina (who's a bit better) and Western Kentucky (who's a bit worse), and those teams rushed for 218 and 171 against us respectively. From Alabama's perspective, the result is 277. I'm going with 220 for the Tide on the ground against Tennessee.

When Alabama passes the ball: Our passing defense gives up 230 yards per game, and Alabama gets nearly 250. This is right next to South Carolina in the rankings, and they got only 166 against us, but had several drops. The result from Bama's perspective is a huge 333 yards, so who knows on this one? Prediction: Let's call it 250 and hope it's not worse.

On the scoreboard for Tennessee: We put up about 30 points per game. They are the absolute best scoring defense in the nation and hold opponents to just under 10 points per game. Florida's not that much worse, though, at 16 points per game, and we got 17 on them. From Bama's perspective, we get a whopping 3 points. I'm going with 7 (only because I can't decide between two or three field goals).

On the scoreboard for Alabama: We're holding opponents to 27 points per game. The Crimson Tide are getting just over 40, which is sort of in no man's land between Oregon (57) and Georgia (36). Those two teams got 59 and 34 (in overtime) against Tennessee. I don't know what to make of all that, to be honest, so let's go with 36.

Eyeballed Predictions

	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	7	90	110	200
Alabama	36	220	250	470

Taking all of that together, it again looks a lot like the current spread, which is 28.5 for this game. It's not quite There's a Monster at the End of This Preview, but it's close. Tennessee's making real progress, but there's still a huge gap between beating a Top 15 team at home and sticking with the program that's won three of the last four national championships at their place.

Schedule

@ Virginia Tech Hokies	8/31/13	win 35 - 10	coverage
@ Texas A&M Aggies	9/14/13	win 49 - 42	coverage
Colorado St. Rams	9/21/13	win 31 - 6	coverage
Mississippi Rebels	9/28/13	win 25 - 0	coverage
Georgia State Panthers	10/5/13	win 45 - 3	coverage
@ Kentucky Wildcats	10/12/13	win 48 - 7	coverage
Arkansas Razorbacks	10/19/13	win 52 - 0	coverage
Strength of Schedule	54
Austin Peay Governors	8/31/13	win 45 - 0	coverage
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	9/7/13	win 52 - 20	coverage
@ Oregon Ducks	9/14/13	loss 14 - 59	coverage
@ Florida Gators	9/21/13	loss 17 - 31	coverage
South Alabama Jaguars	9/28/13	win 31 - 24	coverage
Georgia Bulldogs	10/5/13	loss 31 - 34	coverage
South Carolina Gamecocks	10/19/13	win 23 - 21	coverage
Strength of Schedule	14

Well, Tennessee has a much tougher schedule than Alabama does, so we have that going for us, which is nice . . . until you look at what they did to Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Mississippi. Not to mention giving no hope to teams like Kentucky and Arkansas.

National Unit Rankings

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Statistic	National Rank	Conference Rank	Value	National Leader	Value	Conference Leader	Value
Rushing Offense (123 ranked)	25	5	211.7	Army	340.1	Auburn	300.1
Passing Offense (123 ranked)	53	7	248.7	Oregon St.	442.1	Texas A&M	377.1
Total Offense (123 ranked)	35	6	460.4	Baylor	714.3	Texas A&M	588.7
Scoring Offense (123 ranked)	16	3	40.7	Baylor	64.7	Texas A&M	46.9
Team Passing Efficiency (123 ranked)	9	3	162.64	Baylor	213.22	Texas A&M	176.45
Passing Yards per Completion (123 ranked)	59	10	12.26	Baylor	19.41	LSU	15.99
Passes Had Intercepted (123 ranked)	7	2	3	New Mexico	1	Kentucky	2
Pass Sacks Allowed (123 ranked)	15	3	1.00	Toledo	0.43	Arkansas	0.75
Tackles for Loss Allowed (123 ranked)	15	3	4.29	Stanford	3.00	Arkansas	3.75
Red Zone Offense (123 ranked)	53	6	0.852	Florida St.	0.971	Auburn	0.897

Offensive observations. Hey, look at that. Total Offense only ranked 35th in the nation and 6th in the SEC. There's decent balance there, but it does look like the run game's the strength. They are efficient, though, and their o-line doesn't let folks mess around in the backfield much.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
Statistic	National Rank	Conference Rank	Value	National Leader	Value	Conference Leader	Value
Rushing Defense (123 ranked)	8	1	98.3	Michigan St.	59.1	Alabama	98.3
Passing Yards Allowed (123 ranked)	9	2	176.7	Oklahoma	149.7	Florida	172.4
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (123 ranked)	13	2	105.85	Michigan St.	88.41	Florida	91.59
Passes Intercepted (121 ranked)	75	7	6	Oregon St. Missouri	14 14	Missouri	14
Total Defense (123 ranked)	5	2	275.0	Michigan St.	228.0	Florida	273.1
Scoring Defense (123 ranked)	1	1	9.7	Alabama	9.7	Alabama	9.7
Team Pass Sacks (123 ranked)	85	10	1.57	Virginia Tech Clemson	3.86 3.86	Missouri	3.29
Team Tackles for Loss (123 ranked)	100	12	5.0	Clemson	9.6	Auburn	8.0
Red Zone Defense (123 ranked)	4	1	0.636	Bowling Green	0.500	Alabama	0.636

Defensive observations. This is what we've come to know and hate from the Crimson Tide. First in the nation in Scoring Defense. Fourth in Red Zone Defense. Fifth in Total Defense. Top ten in Rushing Defense and Passing Yards Allowed. But look! They suck at tackles for loss and only slightly less so at sacks! So here's the game plan: Play the entire game behind our own line of scrimmage, and they'll never catch us.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
Statistic	National Rank	Conference Rank	Value	National Leader	Value	Conference Leader	Value
Net Punting (123 ranked)	10	2	40.52	Memphis	43.93	Texas A&M	41.70
Punt Return Defense (123 ranked)	61	8	7.50	Houston	-1.86	LSU	1.00
Punt Returns (123 ranked)	14	2	14.53	Kansas St.	24.67	Ole Miss	16.83
Kickoff Return Defense (123 ranked)	20	4	18.58	La.-Monroe	12.00	Vanderbilt	14.82
Kickoff Returns (123 ranked)	20	3	25.00	Miami (FL)	31.35	Mississippi St.	31.25
Turnover Margin (123 ranked)	34	3	0.6	Houston	2.3	Missouri	1.4
Fewest Penalties Per Game (123 ranked)	33	5	5.14	Tulsa Navy	3.00 3.00	Arkansas	4.25
Fewest Penatly Yards Per Game (123 ranked)	31	6	41.29	Tulsa	20.83	Tennessee	33.14

Special teams and turnovers observations. Oh, look. They're good at this, too. Thanks.

Players to Watch

Category	Player	National Rank	Value
OFFENSE
Rushing Yards (299 ranked)	T.J. Yeldon Kenyan Drake Derrick Henry	29 103 275	657 402 196
Rushing Yards Per Game (300 ranked)	T.J. Yeldon Kenyan Drake Derrick Henry	35 82 242	93.9 67.0 32.7
Passing Efficiency (110 ranked)	A.J. McCarron	8	164.6
Passing TDs (111 ranked)	A.J. McCarron	19	14
Passing Yards (135 ranked)	A.J. McCarron	37	1,587
Passing Yards Per Game (135 ranked)	A.J. McCarron	48	226.7
Passing Yards per Completion (110 ranked)	A.J. McCarron	49	12.60
Total Offense (300 ranked)	A.J. McCarron T.J. Yeldon Kenyan Drake	61 158 202	223.7 93.9 67.0
Receiving Yards (400 ranked)	Deandrew White Christion Jones Kevin Norwood Amari Cooper O.J. Howard	188 219 266 282 386	300 275 236 229 173
Receiving Yards Per Game (399 ranked)	Deandrew White Kevin Norwood Christion Jones Amari Cooper O.J. Howard	205 227 228 239 396	42.9 39.3 39.3 38.2 24.7
Receptions Per Game (391 ranked)	Christion Jones Deandrew White Kevin Norwood Amari Cooper	162 244 257 310	3.7 2.9 2.8 2.5
Scoring (250 ranked)	Cade Foster Kenyan Drake T.J. Yeldon	49 54 140	8.3 8.0 6.0

Offensive Observations. You know Dasher and Dancer and Prancer and Vixen. And Yeldon and McCarron. But do you know the receivers? No? That's because they're all good and when you share the limelight, no one gets the spotlight. Or something like that.

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
DEFENSE
Interceptions (193 ranked)	Vinnie Sunseri	103	0.3
Pass Sacks (83 ranked)	A'Shawn Robinson	62	0.6
Solo Tackles (58 ranked)
Tackles For Loss (34 ranked)
Total Tackles (393 ranked)	C.J. Mosley	66	8.3

Defense. As we noted last year, the strength of the Tide is its defense, and yet their defensive players to watch chart is a bit sparse. It's because it's a collective, like the Borg, only with a little less personality. And they don't bother with that whole assimilation nonsense. Just destroy, thank you. Vinnie Sunseri is out, by the way, with a torn ACL.

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
SPECIAL TEAMS
Punt Return TDs (6 ranked)	Dillon Lee Christion Jones	6 6	1 1
Punt Returns (66 ranked)	Christion Jones	17	12.5
Punting (91 ranked)
Kickoff Returns (98 ranked)	Christion Jones	12	29.0
Field Goals Per Game (123 ranked)	Cade Foster	51	1.1
All Purpose (250 ranked)	Christion Jones T.J. Yeldon Kenyan Drake	69 82 151	113.57 108.71 87.00

Special teams. Christion Jones is dangerous, having already run one punt back for a score.