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A weekly look at our upcoming opponent from a statistics perspective. CAVEATS: You'll get tired of hearing this, but yeah, we know that small sample sets preclude concrete conclusions. One game (or even two or three) doesn't provide enough data to approach the predictive accuracy of even a Magic 8 Ball, but that doesn't mean we're not going to look at what little we have. The results from 2012 and 2011 are understandably a mixed bag, but they also suggest that it's a worthwhile endeavor.
Also, this: All of the following information is gleaned exclusively from the official NCAA statistics and the awesome CFBStats.com and does not account for things like injuries, shared playing time, suspensions, and other stuff difficult to see in the stats from a bird's eye view under time constraints. We generally put the "conclusions" and "predictions" at the top of the post, with the data upon which those are based below.
Head to Head Comparisons
Here's how the statsy preview machine did for last week's game between the Vols and the Gamecocks.
Prediction | Score | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards | Total Yards |
Tennessee | 28 | 230 | 120 | 350 |
South Carolina | 35 | 200 | 210 | 410 |
Actual Results | Score | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards | Total Yards |
Tennessee | 23 | 146 | 179 | 325 |
South Carolina | 21 | 218 | 166 | 384 |
I'll summarize that as "pretty good on total yards, not so good on score." With that in mind, let's take a look at what it spits out this week for the game against Alabama.
Head-to-Head, from Tennessee's Perspective
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Comps | Result against Comps | Prediction | |||||||
Closest Lower | Closest Higher | Closest Lower | Closest Higher | ||||||||
Team | Team | Team | Team | ||||||||
Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | ||||
Tennessee rushing offense vs. Alabama rushing defense | 37 | 201.71 | 8 | 98.29 | Florida | None | Florida | None | 66 | ||
12 | 100.71 | 66 | |||||||||
Tennessee passing offense vs. Alabama passing defense | 111 | 166.3 | 9 | 176.7 | South Carolina | Florida | South Carolina | Florida | 167 | ||
19 | 199.3 | 6 | 172.4 | 179 | 154 | ||||||
Tennessee rushing defense vs. Alabama rushing offense | 85 | 181.71 | 25 | 211.71 | Western Kentucky | South Carolina | Western Kentucky | South Carolina | 195 | ||
34 | 202.71 | 19 | 224.57 | 171 | 218 | ||||||
Tennessee passing defense vs. Alabama passing offense | 65 | 230.1 | 54 | 248.7 | South Carolina | Western Kentucky | South Carolina | Western Kentucky | 194 | ||
56 | 247.3 | 37 | 270.6 | 166 | 222 | ||||||
Tennessee scoring offense vs. Alabama scoring defense | 60 | 30.4 | 1 | 9.7 | Florida | None | Florida | None | 17 | ||
8 | 16.3 | 17 | |||||||||
Tennessee scoring defense vs. Alabama scoring offense | 65 | 27 | 16 | 40.7 | Georgia | Oregon | Georgia | Oregon | 47 | ||
28 | 36 | 2 | 57.6 | 34 | 59 | ||||||
Caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and this early in the season, the guesses are particularly sketchy. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game. |
Head-to-Head, from Alabama's Perspective
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Comps | Result against Comps | Prediction | |||||||
Closest Lower | Closest Higher | Closest Lower | Closest Higher | ||||||||
Team | Team | Team | Team | ||||||||
Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | ||||
Alabama rushing offense vs. Tennessee rushing defense | 25 | 211.71 | 85 | 181.71 | Kentucky | Mississippi | Kentucky | Mississippi | 277 | ||
108 | 213.33 | 80 | 176.29 | 299 | 254 | ||||||
Alabama passing offense vs. Tennessee passing defense | 54 | 248.7 | 65 | 230.1 | Georgia State | Kentucky | Georgia State | Kentucky | 333 | ||
82 | 242.7 | 53 | 224 | 296 | 369 | ||||||
Alabama rushing defense vs. Tennessee rushing offense | 8 | 98.29 | 37 | 201.71 | Colorado State | Arkansas | Colorado State | Arkansas | 108 | ||
56 | 176.57 | 30 | 209.88 | 51 | 165 | ||||||
Alabama passing defense vs. Tennessee passing offense | 9 | 176.7 | 111 | 166.3 | Arkansas | Kentucky | Arkansas | Kentucky | 84 | ||
116 | 146.6 | 94 | 201.5 | 91 | 76 | ||||||
Alabama scoring offense vs. Tennessee scoring defense | 16 | 40.7 | 65 | 27 | Mississippi | Virginia Tech | Mississippi | Virginia Tech | 30 | ||
72 | 27.3 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 35 | ||||||
Alabama scoring defense vs. Tennessee scoring offense | 1 | 9.7 | 60 | 30.4 | Mississippi | Colorado State | Mississippi | Colorado State | 3 | ||
72 | 28.7 | 45 | 33.1 | 0 | 6 |
All of the above is compiled using the ever awesome statistical database maintained by CFBStats.com.
When Tennessee runs the ball: We're getting just over 200 yards per game on the ground, but Alabama's allowing a little less than 100 per game. That's the best run defense we've faced all year, but it's only a little better than Florida's, and against Florida we rushed for 66 yards. Yikes. The same analysis from their perspective gives a result of 108 yards, so I'm going to go with 90 yards rushing for the Vols this Saturday.
When Tennessee passes: We're still getting only 164 yards through the air per game. Alabama's allowing 177 or so, which most closely resembles Florida's pass defense, against which we got 154 yards. The result of the analysis from their perspective is 84 (yikes again!), so my prediction is maybe 110 passing yards for Tennessee.
When Alabama runs the ball: We're holding teams to just over 180 rushing yards per game. The Tide are getting just over 210. This is just about in the middle of South Carolina (who's a bit better) and Western Kentucky (who's a bit worse), and those teams rushed for 218 and 171 against us respectively. From Alabama's perspective, the result is 277. I'm going with 220 for the Tide on the ground against Tennessee.
When Alabama passes the ball: Our passing defense gives up 230 yards per game, and Alabama gets nearly 250. This is right next to South Carolina in the rankings, and they got only 166 against us, but had several drops. The result from Bama's perspective is a huge 333 yards, so who knows on this one? Prediction: Let's call it 250 and hope it's not worse.
On the scoreboard for Tennessee: We put up about 30 points per game. They are the absolute best scoring defense in the nation and hold opponents to just under 10 points per game. Florida's not that much worse, though, at 16 points per game, and we got 17 on them. From Bama's perspective, we get a whopping 3 points. I'm going with 7 (only because I can't decide between two or three field goals).
On the scoreboard for Alabama: We're holding opponents to 27 points per game. The Crimson Tide are getting just over 40, which is sort of in no man's land between Oregon (57) and Georgia (36). Those two teams got 59 and 34 (in overtime) against Tennessee. I don't know what to make of all that, to be honest, so let's go with 36.
Eyeballed Predictions
Score | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards | Total Yards | |
Tennessee | 7 | 90 | 110 | 200 |
Alabama | 36 | 220 | 250 | 470 |
Taking all of that together, it again looks a lot like the current spread, which is 28.5 for this game. It's not quite There's a Monster at the End of This Preview, but it's close. Tennessee's making real progress, but there's still a huge gap between beating a Top 15 team at home and sticking with the program that's won three of the last four national championships at their place.
Schedule
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@ Virginia Tech Hokies | 8/31/13 | win 35 - 10 | coverage |
@ Texas A&M Aggies | 9/14/13 | win 49 - 42 | coverage |
Colorado St. Rams | 9/21/13 | win 31 - 6 | coverage |
Mississippi Rebels |
9/28/13 |
win 25 - 0 | coverage |
Georgia State Panthers | 10/5/13 | win 45 - 3 | coverage |
@ Kentucky Wildcats | 10/12/13 | win 48 - 7 | coverage |
Arkansas Razorbacks |
10/19/13 |
win 52 - 0 | coverage |
Strength of Schedule | 54 | ||
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Austin Peay Governors | 8/31/13 | win 45 - 0 | coverage |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 9/7/13 | win 52 - 20 | coverage |
@ Oregon Ducks | 9/14/13 | loss 14 - 59 | coverage |
@ Florida Gators | 9/21/13 | loss 17 - 31 | coverage |
South Alabama Jaguars |
9/28/13 |
win 31 - 24 | coverage |
Georgia Bulldogs | 10/5/13 | loss 31 - 34 | coverage |
South Carolina Gamecocks | 10/19/13 | win 23 - 21 | coverage |
Strength of Schedule | 14 |
Well, Tennessee has a much tougher schedule than Alabama does, so we have that going for us, which is nice . . . until you look at what they did to Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Mississippi. Not to mention giving no hope to teams like Kentucky and Arkansas.
National Unit Rankings
OFFENSIVE RANKINGS | |||||||
Statistic | National Rank |
Conference Rank | Value | National Leader | Value | Conference Leader | Value |
Rushing Offense (123 ranked) | 25 | 5 | 211.7 | Army | 340.1 | Auburn | 300.1 |
Passing Offense (123 ranked) | 53 | 7 | 248.7 | Oregon St. | 442.1 | Texas A&M | 377.1 |
Total Offense (123 ranked) | 35 | 6 | 460.4 | Baylor | 714.3 | Texas A&M | 588.7 |
Scoring Offense (123 ranked) | 16 | 3 | 40.7 | Baylor | 64.7 | Texas A&M | 46.9 |
Team Passing Efficiency (123 ranked) | 9 | 3 | 162.64 | Baylor | 213.22 | Texas A&M | 176.45 |
Passing Yards per Completion (123 ranked) | 59 | 10 | 12.26 | Baylor | 19.41 | LSU | 15.99 |
Passes Had Intercepted (123 ranked) | 7 | 2 | 3 | New Mexico | 1 | Kentucky | 2 |
Pass Sacks Allowed (123 ranked) | 15 | 3 | 1.00 | Toledo | 0.43 | Arkansas | 0.75 |
Tackles for Loss Allowed (123 ranked) | 15 | 3 | 4.29 | Stanford | 3.00 | Arkansas | 3.75 |
Red Zone Offense (123 ranked) | 53 | 6 | 0.852 | Florida St. | 0.971 | Auburn | 0.897 |
Offensive observations. Hey, look at that. Total Offense only ranked 35th in the nation and 6th in the SEC. There's decent balance there, but it does look like the run game's the strength. They are efficient, though, and their o-line doesn't let folks mess around in the backfield much.
DEFENSIVE RANKINGS | |||||||
Statistic | National Rank |
Conference Rank | Value | National Leader | Value | Conference Leader | Value |
Rushing Defense (123 ranked) | 8 | 1 | 98.3 | Michigan St. | 59.1 | Alabama | 98.3 |
Passing Yards Allowed (123 ranked) | 9 | 2 | 176.7 | Oklahoma | 149.7 | Florida | 172.4 |
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (123 ranked) | 13 | 2 | 105.85 | Michigan St. | 88.41 | Florida | 91.59 |
Passes Intercepted (121 ranked) | 75 | 7 | 6 |
Oregon St. Missouri |
14 14 |
Missouri | 14 |
Total Defense (123 ranked) | 5 | 2 | 275.0 | Michigan St. | 228.0 | Florida | 273.1 |
Scoring Defense (123 ranked) | 1 | 1 | 9.7 | Alabama | 9.7 | Alabama | 9.7 |
Team Pass Sacks (123 ranked) | 85 | 10 | 1.57 |
Virginia Tech Clemson |
3.86 3.86 |
Missouri | 3.29 |
Team Tackles for Loss (123 ranked) | 100 | 12 | 5.0 | Clemson | 9.6 | Auburn | 8.0 |
Red Zone Defense (123 ranked) | 4 | 1 | 0.636 | Bowling Green | 0.500 | Alabama | 0.636 |
Defensive observations. This is what we've come to know and hate from the Crimson Tide. First in the nation in Scoring Defense. Fourth in Red Zone Defense. Fifth in Total Defense. Top ten in Rushing Defense and Passing Yards Allowed. But look! They suck at tackles for loss and only slightly less so at sacks! So here's the game plan: Play the entire game behind our own line of scrimmage, and they'll never catch us.
SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS | |||||||
Statistic | National Rank |
Conference Rank | Value | National Leader | Value | Conference Leader | Value |
Net Punting (123 ranked) | 10 | 2 | 40.52 | Memphis | 43.93 | Texas A&M | 41.70 |
Punt Return Defense (123 ranked) | 61 | 8 | 7.50 | Houston | -1.86 | LSU | 1.00 |
Punt Returns (123 ranked) | 14 | 2 | 14.53 | Kansas St. | 24.67 | Ole Miss | 16.83 |
Kickoff Return Defense (123 ranked) | 20 | 4 | 18.58 | La.-Monroe | 12.00 | Vanderbilt | 14.82 |
Kickoff Returns (123 ranked) | 20 | 3 | 25.00 | Miami (FL) | 31.35 | Mississippi St. | 31.25 |
Turnover Margin (123 ranked) | 34 | 3 | 0.6 | Houston | 2.3 | Missouri | 1.4 |
Fewest Penalties Per Game (123 ranked) | 33 | 5 | 5.14 |
Tulsa Navy |
3.00 3.00 |
Arkansas | 4.25 |
Fewest Penatly Yards Per Game (123 ranked) | 31 | 6 | 41.29 | Tulsa | 20.83 | Tennessee | 33.14 |
Special teams and turnovers observations. Oh, look. They're good at this, too. Thanks.
Players to Watch
Offensive Observations. You know Dasher and Dancer and Prancer and Vixen. And Yeldon and McCarron. But do you know the receivers? No? That's because they're all good and when you share the limelight, no one gets the spotlight. Or something like that.
Category | Player | National Rank |
Actual |
DEFENSE | |||
Interceptions (193 ranked) | Vinnie Sunseri | 103 | 0.3 |
Pass Sacks (83 ranked) | A'Shawn Robinson | 62 | 0.6 |
Solo Tackles (58 ranked) | |||
Tackles For Loss (34 ranked) | |||
Total Tackles (393 ranked) | C.J. Mosley | 66 | 8.3 |
Defense. As we noted last year, the strength of the Tide is its defense, and yet their defensive players to watch chart is a bit sparse. It's because it's a collective, like the Borg, only with a little less personality. And they don't bother with that whole assimilation nonsense. Just destroy, thank you. Vinnie Sunseri is out, by the way, with a torn ACL.
Category | Player | National Rank |
Actual |
SPECIAL TEAMS | |||
Punt Return TDs (6 ranked) |
Dillon Lee Christion Jones |
6 6 |
1 1 |
Punt Returns (66 ranked) | Christion Jones | 17 | 12.5 |
Punting (91 ranked) | |||
Kickoff Returns (98 ranked) | Christion Jones | 12 | 29.0 |
Field Goals Per Game (123 ranked) | Cade Foster | 51 | 1.1 |
All Purpose (250 ranked) |
Christion Jones T.J. Yeldon Kenyan Drake |
69 82 151 |
113.57 108.71 87.00 |
Special teams. Christion Jones is dangerous, having already run one punt back for a score.