Tennessee Vols vs. #9 Missouri Tigers: statistical game preview

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent from a statistics perspective. CAVEATS: You'll get tired of hearing this, but yeah, we know that small sample sets preclude concrete conclusions. One game (or even two or three or a full season (because football seasons are short)) doesn't provide enough data to approach the predictive accuracy of even a Magic 8 Ball, but that doesn't mean we're not going to look at what little we have. The results from 2012 and 2011 are understandably a mixed bag, but they also suggest that this is a worthwhile endeavor.

Also, this: All of the following information is gleaned exclusively from the official NCAA statistics and the awesome CFBStats.com and unless otherwise stated does not account for things like injuries, shared playing time, suspensions, and other stuff difficult to see in the stats from a bird's eye view under time constraints.

Head to Head Comparisons

Here's how the statsy preview machine did for last week's game between the Vols and the Tide.

Prediction	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	7	90	110	200
Alabama	36	220	250	470

Actual Results	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	10	127	195	322
Alabama	45	204	275	479

So Tennessee's offense did a little bit better in both points and yards than we thought it would, and the defense did almost exactly what we expected in yards, but it translated into more points than we thought it would.

So how does this week look? Brace yourselves. It's not what we want to see.

Head-to-Head, from Tennessee's Perspective

					Comps				Result against Comps		Prediction
					Closest Lower		Closest Higher		Closest Lower	Closest Higher
					Team		Team		Team	Team
	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value
Tennessee rushing offense vs. Missouri rushing defense	42	192.38	16	111.38	Oregon		Alabama		Oregon	Alabama	153
					25	130.88	11	101.88	178	127
Tennessee passing offense vs. Missouri passing defense	112	169.9	114	284.3	None		Georgia		None	Georgia	215
							96	253.4		215
Tennessee rushing defense vs. Missouri rushing offense	86	184.5	19	224.5	Alabama		Oregon		Alabama	Oregon	210
					27	210.75	2	331.5	204	216
Tennessee passing defense vs. Missouri passing offense	70	235.8	32	275.3	South Carolina		South Alabama		South Carolina	South Alabama	212
					40	269.3	26	281	166	257
Tennessee scoring offense vs. Missouri scoring defense	72	27.9	36	22.8	South Carolina		Oregon		South Carolina	Oregon	19
					38	22.9	9	16.9	23	14
Tennessee scoring defense vs. Missouri scoring offense	78	29.3	12	41.8	Alabama		Oregon		Alabama	Oregon	52
					13	41.3	2	55.6	45	59

The depressing thing to note about that chart is that the closest comps on rushing defense, rushing offense, and scoring offense are Alabama and Oregon.

Head-to-Head, from Missouri's Perspective

					Comps				Result against Comps		Prediction
					Closest Lower		Closest Higher		Closest Lower	Closest Higher
					Team		Team		Team	Team
	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value
Missouri rushing offense vs. Tennessee rushing defense	19	224.5	86	184.5	Arkansas State		Toledo		Arkansas State	Toledo	206
					99	203	78	176.25	239	172
Missouri passing offense vs. Tennessee passing defense	32	275.3	70	235.8	Arkansas State		Toledo		Arkansas State	Toledo	234
					79	240.1	63	228.9	256	212
Missouri rushing defense vs. Tennessee rushing offense	16	111.38	42	192.38	Georgia		Arkansas State		Georgia	Arkansas State	141
					44	192.14	41	192.43	164	117
Missouri passing defense vs. Tennessee passing offense	114	284.3	112	169.9	None		Florida		None	Florida	92
							110	175.4		92
Missouri scoring offense vs. Tennessee scoring defense	12	41.8	78	29.3	Vanderbilt		Arkansas State		Vanderbilt	Arkansas State	46
					84	30.3	72	28.9	51	41
Missouri scoring defense vs. Tennessee scoring offense	36	22.8	72	27.9	Arkansas State		Toledo		Arkansas State	Toledo	21
					78	27.6	61	30.5	19	23

When Tennessee runs the ball: We're getting just over 190 yards per game on the ground, and Missouri is giving up only 111. That's only a little worse than Alabama (and slightly better than Oregon), who's giving up about 102 rushing yards per game. Against the Tide, we got 127 rushing yards (and against Oregon we got 178). Looking at the same analysis from Missouri's perspective, we look about the same as Georgia to them, and the Bulldogs got 164. With all of that said, I'm going with 140 yards on the ground for the Vols on Saturday.

When Tennessee passes: Tennessee's getting about 170 passing yards per game. Missouri features the worst-ranked passing defense we've played all year and essentially stinks at passing defense as badly as we do at passing offense, giving up 284 per game. Georgia is the next worst and closest comp at 253 per game, and against the Bulldogs, we got 215. Looking at it from Missouri's perspective, we're the worst-ranked passing offense they've faced, with Florida only slightly better, and they held the Gators to 92. With Joshua Dobbs starting this week, I do think we'll need to push reset on most of Tennessee's passing stats, but because we don't really have anything concrete to go on, I'm going to go with 220 yards through the air for the Vols.

When Missouri runs the ball: We're holding opponents to 184 rushing yards per game; Missouri's getting almost 225. That's 15 more per game than Alabama, but still significantly fewer than Oregon (331.5). Funny thing, though, we held Alabama and Oregon to about the same number: 204 and 216 rushing yards respectively. From Missouri's perspective, our rush defense is going to look mostly like Arkansas State and Toledo (gulp), but the result is about the same: About 200 per game, so that's what I'm going with.

When Missouri passes the ball: We're holding opponents to about 235 passing yards per game. They're getting about 275, which is right smack dab between South Carolina (worse, with 269) and South Alabama (better, with 281), and those two teams got 166 and 257 against us, which is a huge range but averages out to 212. The analysis from the Tigers' perspective spits out a result of 234, so I'm going with 220 passing yards for Missouri.

On the scoreboard for Tennessee: Here's where things get weird. If you're keeping track, we currently have 360 total yards for the Vols and 420 for the Tigers. So you'd expect the points projections to give Missouri a bit of an edge, but the machine's vomiting bile all over our beloved Vols instead. We're scoring about 28 points per game, and Missouri's holding opponents to about 23. That's closest to South Carolina, against whom we scored 23. I'm bumping that up to 28 because . . . well, just because I think we're trending up here and the machine knows not of our optimism borne of pushing reset on our passing stats. But . . .

On the scoreboard for Missouri: We're holding opponents to about 29 points per game; Missouri's getting almost 42. Almost 42? Yikes, but yes. That's one spot better than that stupid red team and only ten spots (but still 13 points) behind Oregon. You'll recall that Alabama got 45 on us relatively easily. Let's not even talk about Oregon. So I don't like that result at all. Looking at it from Missouri's perspective doesn't help much, either. To them, we look like Vanderbilt and Arkansas State (gulp again) in the points department, and they got 51 and 41 on them. I know. Depressing. If we're just looking at the numbers, you almost have to conclude that Missouri's getting 45 points on us. But . . . if you look at their schedule, and look at the fact that their starting quarterback went out two games ago and is "questionable" for Saturday's game, and note that their points the last two games have been only 36 and 27 (17 in regulation), well you can start to talk yourself into a more reasonable points prediction. If they're hungover from last week's heartbreak, well, that's even better and we have ourselves a game. But as much as I want to believe all of that, I'm going to go with 38 points for Missouri, which is as far as my optimism will allow for now.

Eyeballed Predictions

	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	28	140	220	360
Missouri	38	200	220	420

Taking all of that together, it (for the third week in a row) looks a lot like the current spread, which is currently fluctuating between 11 and 11.5 for this game. There are a lot of variables that I'm not at all comfortable with in this one: Tennessee's starting a new quarterback with a passing game that appears can only improve; Missouri's stats are largely based on a resume under a quarterback different than the one who will probably play Saturday (but if James Franklin plays, everything changes); Missouri's coming off a really tough loss to a team we beat the week prior; and on and on. But they are ranked 9th in the nation, you know. And yet somehow, they seem vulnerable, don't they? As you can tell, I'm conflicted. Bottom line, I'll agree that they are and should be favored, but I'm still looking (and hopeful) for another upset.

Schedule

Murray St. Racers	8/31/13	win 58 - 14	coverage
Toledo Rockets	9/7/13	win 38 - 23	coverage
@ Indiana Hoosiers	9/21/13	win 45 - 28	coverage
Arkansas St. Red Wolves	9/28/13	win 41 - 19	coverage
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	10/5/13	win 51 - 28	coverage
@ Georgia Bulldogs	10/12/13	win 41 - 26	coverage
Florida Gators	10/19/13	win 36 - 17	coverage
South Carolina Gamecocks	10/26/13	loss 24 - 27	coverage
Strength of Schedule	34
Austin Peay Governors	8/31/13	win 45 - 0	coverage
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	9/7/13	win 52 - 20	coverage
@ Oregon Ducks	9/14/13	loss 14 - 59	coverage
@ Florida Gators	9/21/13	loss 17 - 31	coverage
South Alabama Jaguars	9/28/13	win 31 - 24	coverage
Georgia Bulldogs	10/5/13	loss 31 - 34	coverage
South Carolina Gamecocks	10/19/13	win 23 - 21	coverage
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	10/26/13	loss 10 - 45	coverage
Strength of Schedule	3

Well, whattadaya know, Missouri's schedule is actually stronger than Alabama's. Of course, it's still nowhere near ours, which is what you get when a team plays Nos 1 and 2 in the same season and all but three opponents are ranked. Looking at opponents common to both teams will just make your brain squishy: We lost to Florida when we were a hotter mess than they; the Tigers beat Florida later in the season. We lost to Georgia but weakened them, which almost certainly helped Missouri beat them. We beat South Carolina at home, and Missouri lost to them at home a week later. All of which leads to a firm, irrefutable, and irrebutable conclusion that something.

National Unit Rankings

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Statistic	National Rank	Conference Rank	Value	National Leader	Value	Conference Leader	Value
Rushing Offense (123 ranked)	19	2	224.5	Army	340.1	Auburn	315.4
Passing Offense (123 ranked)	31	4	275.3	Oregon St.	420.8	Texas A&M	377.0
Total Offense (123 ranked)	16	3	499.8	Baylor	718.4	Texas A&M	584.9
Scoring Offense (123 ranked)	12	2	41.8	Baylor	63.9	Texas A&M	48.0
Team Passing Efficiency (123 ranked)	23	6	150.40	Baylor	207.12	LSU	176.48
Passing Yards per Completion (123 ranked)	31	7	13.27	Baylor	19.60	LSU	16.44
Passes Had Intercepted (123 ranked)	23	4	5	New Mexico	1	Kentucky	2
Pass Sacks Allowed (123 ranked)	73	9	2.13	Toledo Northern Ill.	0.50 0.50	Arkansas	0.75
Tackles for Loss Allowed (123 ranked)	51	10	5.50	Stanford	3.00	Arkansas	3.75
Red Zone Offense (123 ranked)	61	8	0.833	Florida St.	0.974	Vanderbilt	0.882

Offensive observations. The injury to quarterback James Franklin duly noted (he's questionable for Saturday), the stats show that this is/was a highly potent and balanced offense that converted especially well into points. They are a bit vulnerable behind the line of scrimmage to sacks and tackles for loss.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
Statistic	National Rank	Conference Rank	Value	National Leader	Value	Conference Leader	Value
Rushing Defense (123 ranked)	16	3	111.4	Michigan St.	54.9	Florida	100.7
Passing Yards Allowed (123 ranked)	112	14	284.3	Florida St.	153.7	Florida	172.4
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (123 ranked)	41	4	121.43	Virginia Tech	86.52	Florida	91.59
Passes Intercepted (121 ranked)	3	1	15	Virginia Tech	17	Missouri	15
Total Defense (123 ranked)	66	10	395.6	Michigan St.	215.5	Florida	273.1
Scoring Defense (123 ranked)	36	5	22.8	Alabama	9.8	Alabama	9.8
Team Pass Sacks (123 ranked)	12	1	3.13	Clemson	3.63	Missouri	3.13
Team Tackles for Loss (123 ranked)	14	1	7.7	Baylor	9.1	Missouri	7.7
Red Zone Defense (123 ranked)	83	9	0.862	Baylor	0.550	Alabama	0.692

Defensive observations. As stated earlier, Missouri's passing defense ranks as poorly as Tennessee's passing offense. Their rushing defense, though, is stout, which should mean that Tennessee's ability to be different in the passing game this week could pay huge dividends and be the difference in the game. Dobbs will need to be especially careful throwing the ball, though, because the Tigers are 1st in the league and third in the nation in passes intercepted. We should probably expect one or two from a new QB against an interception-happy defense. They also have a good defensive line that likes to get in the opponent's backfield, but that is strength against strength in this game.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
Statistic	National Rank	Conference Rank	Value	National Leader	Value	Conference Leader	Value
Net Punting (123 ranked)	97	13	35.32	Memphis	43.93	Texas A&M	40.90
Punt Return Defense (123 ranked)	56	7	7.36	Houston	-0.63	LSU	0.90
Punt Returns (123 ranked)	102	10	4.67	Kansas St.	21.71	Ole Miss	15.00
Kickoff Return Defense (123 ranked)	113	14	25.68	Vanderbilt	13.92	Vanderbilt	13.92
Kickoff Returns (123 ranked)	46	8	22.60	Miami (FL)	29.62	Mississippi St.	28.13
Turnover Margin (123 ranked)	3	1	1.5	Houston	2.9	Missouri	1.5
Fewest Penalties Per Game (123 ranked)	43	6	5.38	Navy	3.14	Arkansas Tennessee	4.25 4.25
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game (123 ranked)	26	5	41.38	Navy	26.43	Tennessee	33.00

Special teams and turnovers observations. Missouri's not very good at special teams. They actually borderline on pretty darn bad, which could provide a real opportunity to score some quick points and relieve pressure on Dobbs.

Players to Watch

Category	Player	National Rank	Value
OFFENSE
Rushing Yards (298 ranked)	Henry Josey Russell Hansbrough Marcus Murphy James Franklin	57 106 127 209	573 449 410 290
Rushing Yards Per Game (298 ranked)	Henry Josey Russell Hansbrough Marcus Murphy James Franklin	74 122 143 156	71.6 56.1 51.3 48.3
Passing Efficiency (114 ranked)	James Franklin	18	156.2
Passing TDs (121 ranked)	James Franklin	28	14
Passing Yards (135 ranked)	James Franklin Maty Mauk	53 132	1,577 585
Passing Yards Per Game (135 ranked)	James Franklin Maty Mauk	25 125	262.8 73.1
Passing Yards per Completion (114 ranked)	James Franklin	62	11.95
Total Offense (300 ranked)	James Franklin Maty Mauk Henry Josey Russell Hansbrough Marcus Murphy	20 189 202 247 266	311.2 75.9 71.6 56.1 51.3
Receiving Yards (400 ranked)	L'Damian Washington Dorial Green-Beckham Marcus Lucas Jimmie Hunt	39 108 114 356	635 457 447 207
Receiving Yards Per Game (399 ranked)	L'Damian Washington Dorial Green-Beckham Marcus Lucas Jimmie Hunt	48 121 128 371	79.4 57.1 55.9 25.9
Receptions Per Game (398 ranked)	Marcus Lucas L'Damian Washington Dorial Green-Beckham Jimmie Hunt	74 128 149 398	4.9 4.1 3.9 2.1
Scoring (237 ranked)	Andrew Baggett Henry Josey L'Damian Washington Marcus Murphy	15 143 143 186	9.5 6.0 6.0 5.3

Offensive Observations. The primary take away from the above chart is either (1) that James Franklin meant a lot to the team, or (2) that the offense relies a lot on the quarterback position. Which of those two things is more true is up for debate and likely will be for some time, but it is interesting to note that backup QB Maty Mauk has enough playing time under his belt to qualify for the Passing Yards Per Game category, but has only 73.1 per game to 262.8 per game for Franklin. So perhaps it's more about Franklin than the QB position. That's not to discount Mauk's contribution too much, or to downplay the importance of junior running back Henry Josey (who is also questionable for Saturday), but Franklin meant a lot to this team. Also, in case you're wondering, Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy are indeed backup running backs and not just starters at other positions carrying the ball out of the backfield. And finally, the main receiving threat appears to be L'Damian Washington, although there are three other guys who contribute significantly to each game as well.

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
DEFENSE
Interceptions (243 ranked)	E.J. Gaines Kentrell Brothers John Gibson	11 43 210	0.5 0.4 0.2
Pass Sacks (67 ranked)	Michael Sam	1	1.3
Solo Tackles (61 ranked)
Tackles For Loss (31 ranked)	Michael Sam	1	2.0
Total Tackles (389 ranked)	Andrew Wilson Braylon Webb E.J. Gaines	139 157 342	7.3 7.0 5.7

Defense. The name to know here is senior defensive lineman Michael Sam, who missed his callling to play strongside linebacker. He leads the entire nation in both sacks and tackles for loss, so he's basically Jadeveon Clowney without all of the hype.

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
SPECIAL TEAMS
Punt Return TDs (6 ranked)
Punt Returns (67 ranked)	Marcus Murphy	57	4.5
Punting (94 ranked)	Christian Brinser	76	40.1
Kickoff Return TDs (4 ranked)
Kickoff Returns (101 ranked)	Marcus Murphy	52	23.1
Field Goal Percentage (99 ranked)	Andrew Baggett	74	0.706
Field Goals Per Game (126 ranked)	Andrew Baggett	22	1.5
All Purpose (250 ranked)	Marcus Murphy L'Damian Washington Henry Josey	101 192 215	102.13 79.38 75.38

Special teams. This is always important, of course, but there doesn't appear to be any special danger on special teams this week.