A weekly look at our upcoming opponent from a statistics perspective. CAVEATS: You'll get tired of hearing this, but yeah, we know that small sample sets preclude concrete conclusions. One game (or even two or three or a full season (because football seasons are short)) doesn't provide enough data to approach the predictive accuracy of even a Magic 8 Ball, but that doesn't mean we're not going to look at what little we have. The results from 2012 and 2011 are understandably a mixed bag, but they also suggest that this is still a worthwhile endeavor.
Also, this: All of the following information is gleaned exclusively from the official NCAA statistics and the awesome CFBStats.com and unless otherwise stated does not account for things like injuries, shared playing time, suspensions, and other stuff difficult to see in the stats from a bird's eye view under time constraints.
Head to Head Comparisons
Here's how the statsy preview machine did for last week's game between the Vols and Missouri.
Prediction | Score | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards | Total Yards |
Tennessee | 28 | 140 | 220 | 360 |
Missouri | 38 | 200 | 220 | 420 |
Actual Results | Score | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards | Total Yards |
Tennessee | 3 | 94 | 240 | 334 |
Missouri | 31 | 339 | 163 | 502 |
I will note for my own sanity that the teaser line for last week's post said, "The statsy preview machine likes Missouri by 10 this week but is clueless about a lot of things that matter." The "things that matter" were primarily Josh Dobbs -- who was starting his first game for the Vols as a true freshman against a Top 10 team on the road -- and Maty Mauk, also a backup quarterback. Turns out, Dobbs gave the Vols about the number of yards "expected," but they didn't translate into points, and Mauk got even more yards for the Tigers than expected, although they, too (to a lesser degree), didn't translate into quite as many points as you would have expected.
So how does this week look? Let's see.
Head-to-Head, from Tennessee's Perspective
Comps | Result against Comps | Prediction | |||||||||
Closest Lower | Closest Higher | Closest Lower | Closest Higher | ||||||||
Team | Team | Team | Team | ||||||||
Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | ||||
Tennessee rushing offense vs. Auburn rushing defense | 52 | 181.44 | 51 | 149.11 | Western Kentucky | South Carolina | Western Kentucky | South Carolina | 193 | ||
61 | 159.44 | 43 | 145.33 | 240 | 146 | ||||||
Tennessee passing offense vs. Auburn passing defense | 110 | 177.7 | 92 | 249.8 | Missouri | Georgia | Missouri | Georgia | 228 | ||
115 | 279.3 | 85 | 243.5 | 240 | 215 | ||||||
Tennessee rushing defense vs. Auburn rushing offense | 101 | 201.67 | 6 | 306.22 | Missouri | Oregon | Missouri | Oregon | 278 | ||
16 | 237.22 | 2 | 331.5 | 339 | 216 | ||||||
Tennessee passing defense vs. Auburn passing offense | 56 | 227.7 | 101 | 188.7 | Florida | Alabama | Florida | Alabama | 221 | ||
111 | 175.3 | 51 | 252 | 167 | 275 | ||||||
Tennessee scoring offense vs. Auburn scoring defense | 87 | 25.1 | 22 | 20.1 | Missouri | Florida | Missouri | Florida | 10 | ||
23 | 20.6 | 10 | 17.1 | 3 | 17 | ||||||
Tennessee scoring defense vs. Auburn scoring offense | 79 | 29.4 | 28 | 36.8 | Georgia | Missouri | Georgia | Missouri | 33 | ||
35 | 34.4 | 13 | 40.6 | 34 | 31 |
Head-to-Head, from Auburn's Perspective
Comps | Result against Comps | Prediction | |||||||||
Closest Lower | Closest Higher | Closest Lower | Closest Higher | ||||||||
Team | Team | Team | Team | ||||||||
Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | ||||
Auburn rushing offense vs. Tennessee rushing defense | 6 | 306.22 | 101 | 201.67 | None | Texas A&M | None | Texas A&M | 379 | ||
100 | 200.89 | 379 | |||||||||
Auburn passing offense vs. Tennessee passing defense | 101 | 188.7 | 56 | 227.7 | Arkansas State | Mississippi | Arkansas State | Mississippi | 130 | ||
76 | 238.6 | 31 | 214.3 | 167 | 93 | ||||||
Auburn rushing defense vs. Tennessee rushing offense | 51 | 149.11 | 52 | 181.44 | Florida Atlantic | Mississippi | Florida Atlantic | Mississippi | 111 | ||
75 | 158 | 44 | 190.13 | 97 | 124 | ||||||
Auburn passing defense vs. Tennessee passing offense | 92 | 249.8 | 110 | 177.7 | Arkansas | Florida Atlantic | Arkansas | Florida Atlantic | 137 | ||
119 | 144.1 | 96 | 195.4 | 124 | 150 | ||||||
Auburn scoring offense vs. Tennessee scoring defense | 28 | 36.8 | 79 | 29.4 | Texas A&M | Arkansas State | Texas A&M | Arkansas State | 42 | ||
80 | 29.8 | 70 | 27.3 | 45 | 38 | ||||||
Auburn scoring defense vs. Tennessee scoring offense | 22 | 20.1 | 87 | 25.1 | Florida Atlantic | Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Arkansas State | 10 | ||
100 | 22.2 | 78 | 26.3 | 10 | 9 |
When Tennessee runs the ball: We're now getting just over 180 yards per game on the ground, and Auburn is giving up 150. That's pretty much right between Western Kentucky and South Carolina, who are giving up about 160 and 145 rushing yards per game. Against the Hilltoppers, we got 240 rushing yards, and against the Gamecocks we got 146. Averaging those out gives us 193. Looking at the same analysis from Auburn's perspective, the result is 124. Back at home and coming off a disappointment for the Vols' run game, I'm going with 190 yards on the ground for the Vols on Saturday.
When Tennessee passes: Tennessee's getting about 178 passing yards per game. Auburn is giving up about 250 which is pretty close to what Georgia's giving up (243). Against the Bulldogs, we got 215. Looking at it from Auburn's perspective, we look most like Arkansas and Florida Atlantic to them, and the Tigers held those teams to 124 and 150 passing yards respectively. Dobbs just barely missed on at least one deep throw (dropped by the receiver), and I'm guessing (hoping?) the passing game improves, so I'm going to go with 210 yards through the air for the Vols.
When Auburn runs the ball: We're 101st in the nation in run defense, holding opponents to 202 rushing yards per game. Auburn is 6th in the nation in rushing, getting 306 yards per game. That's only about 25 yards fewer per game than Oregon. Missouri is the next best comp, and they're getting 237 per game. Oregon got only 216 on the ground against Tennessee, but Missouri got 339, giving us a middle figure (finger?) of 278. Looking at it from Auburn's perspective is even worse: We are the worst rush defense they've played. Texas A&M is only a little better, and the Tigers gashed, gouged, and gored the Aggies for 379 yards on the ground. My prediction? Pain. 320 yards rushing for Auburn.
When Auburn passes the ball: Here's a bit of good news. Maybe. We're only holding opponents to about 228 passing yards per game, but the Tigers are getting only about 189, which is only marginally better than Florida, and the Gators got only 167 against us. The analysis from the Tigers' perspective spits out an even worse (better?) result of 130. The bad news? Passing Yards Per Completion (see below) shows that it might not be that they can't pass, but that they don't. I'm going with 170, because I think the Vols are going to have to focus on stopping the run, and although that might reduce that particular pain, it should also open up the opportunity for the Tigers to pass, and I'm guessing that they'll do that better than we want them or expect them to.
On the scoreboard for Tennessee: We're getting about 25 points per game now that we've played Alabama and Missouri. Auburn's giving up 20. That's very close to Missouri and not far from Florida, and we got 3 and 17 against those teams. Missouri's chart spits out the exact same prediction of 10 points for the Vols, so that's what I'm going with despite the heartburn it gives me.
On the scoreboard for Auburn: We're holding opponents to 29 points; Auburn's getting about 37, which is closest to Georgia's 34. The Bulldogs got 34 against us (31 in regulation), which also happens to be the same point total as the next closest comp (Missouri). From Auburn's perspective, we look almost exactly the same as the Texas A&M defense, upon which they scored 45. I'm going to go with 35 points for the Tigers.
Eyeballed Predictions
Score | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards | Total Yards | |
Tennessee | 10 | 190 | 210 | 400 |
Auburn | 35 | 320 | 170 | 490 |
For two weeks, these predictions have been right in line with the Vegas odds for the games, but the early line for this one is only 7 to 7.5 in favor of Auburn. I don't know what to make of that because honestly, I don't see how the Tennessee defense is going to be able to stop the Auburn run game. It certainly helps that Auburn's pass game isn't putting up very good numbers, so the game plan can focus on stopping the run. But focusing on it and actually doing it are entirely different things, and, as I said above, if we do, the consequence might be learning that Auburn does in fact have a passing game. Perhaps Tennessee's offense will click and we can get into a shootout with them, but apart from that, I think we're in for another humbling defeat this week.
Schedule
Washington St. Cougars | 8/31/13 | win 31 - 24 | coverage |
Arkansas St. Red Wolves | 9/7/13 | win 38 - 9 | coverage |
Mississippi St. Bulldogs | 9/14/13 | win 24 - 20 | coverage |
@ LSU Tigers | 9/21/13 | loss 21 - 35 | coverage |
Mississippi Rebels | 10/5/13 | win 30 - 22 | coverage |
Western Carolina Catamounts | 10/12/13 | win 62 - 3 | coverage |
@ Texas A&M Aggies | 10/19/13 | win 45 - 41 | coverage |
Florida Atlantic Owls | 10/26/13 | win 45 - 10 | coverage |
@ Arkansas Razorbacks | 11/2/13 | win 35 - 17 | coverage |
Strength of Schedule | 48 | ||
Austin Peay Governors | 8/31/13 | win 45 - 0 | coverage |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 9/7/13 | win 52 - 20 | coverage |
@ Oregon Ducks | 9/14/13 | loss 14 - 59 | coverage |
@ Florida Gators | 9/21/13 | loss 17 - 31 | coverage |
South Alabama Jaguars |
9/28/13 |
win 31 - 24 | coverage |
Georgia Bulldogs | 10/5/13 | loss 31 - 34 | coverage |
South Carolina Gamecocks | 10/19/13 | win 23 - 21 | coverage |
@ Alabama Crimson Tide | 10/26/13 | loss 10 - 45 | coverage |
@ Missouri Tigers | 11/2/13 | loss 3 - 31 | coverage |
Strength of Schedule | 3 |
Toughest schedule, at least according to the NCAA website, isn't based on ranking of opponents but instead on opponent (both past and future) wins and losses. That and the fact that Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina have lost 4, 3, and 2 games respectively, explains why Purdue and Utah both have "stronger" schedules than Tennessee. Purdue's ranked opponents include only #4 Ohio State, #21 Notre Dame, and #24 Wisconsin (and they've won only one game, by the way), and Utah's ranked opponets include only #5 Stanford and #12 UCLA. But Purdue's past opponents have only 9 losses, and Utah's have only 13. Tennessee's have 15 (and more, but not enough more, wins). Bottom line, the SEC is eating itself, and I don't see how anyone can believe that Tennessee's resume of ranked opponents -- at #2 Oregon, at #19 Florida, #6 Georgia, #11 South Carolina, at #1 Alabama, at #9 Missouri, and #11 Auburn -- isn't the most difficult schedule in the country by a long shot.
National Unit Rankings
OFFENSIVE RANKINGS | |||||||
Statistic | National Rank |
Conference Rank | Value | National Leader | Value | Conference Leader | Value |
Rushing Offense (123 ranked) | 6 | 1 | 306.2 | Army | 336.6 | Auburn | 306.2 |
Passing Offense (123 ranked) | 99 | 11 | 188.7 | Baylor | 417.3 | Texas A&M | 371.8 |
Total Offense (123 ranked) | 17 | 3 | 494.9 | Baylor | 718.4 | Texas A&M | 582.6 |
Scoring Offense (123 ranked) | 28 | 5 | 36.8 | Baylor | 63.9 | Texas A&M | 49.0 |
Team Passing Efficiency (123 ranked) | 30 | 7 | 149.00 | Baylor | 207.12 | Texas A&M | 178.50 |
Passing Yards per Completion (123 ranked) | 16 | 3 | 14.15 | Baylor | 19.60 | LSU | 16.44 |
Passes Had Intercepted (123 ranked) | 29 | 7 | 6 | 4 teams tied | 2 | Kentucky | 2 |
Pass Sacks Allowed (123 ranked) | 16 | 3 | 1.00 | Toledo | 0.44 | Arkansas | 0.78 |
Tackles for Loss Allowed (123 ranked) | 15 | 5 | 4.22 | Stanford | 3.00 | Arkansas | 3.89 |
Red Zone Offense (123 ranked) | 20 | 1 | 0.892 | Florida St. | 0.978 | Auburn | 0.892 |
Offensive observations. As I said earlier, at first glance, this looks like a team that can pound you to death with the run game but can't pass to save its life, but when you look at Passing Yards Per Completion, it looks more like they don't pass rather than that they can't. So it looks like these guys are Top 30 in everything that they choose to do. It's just that their preference is to run because why not when you do it better than anyone else in the best conference in the nation?
DEFENSIVE RANKINGS | |||||||
Statistic | National Rank |
Conference Rank | Value | National Leader | Value | Conference Leader | Value |
Rushing Defense (123 ranked) | 47 | 6 | 147.8 | Michigan St. | 43.4 | Alabama | 101.9 |
Passing Yards Allowed (123 ranked) | 93 | 13 | 251.1 | Virginia Tech | 150.6 | Alabama | 179.0 |
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (123 ranked) | 35 | 4 | 118.66 | Michigan St. | 90.29 | Florida | 98.60 |
Passes Intercepted (122 ranked) | 30 | 4 | 10 | Northwestern | 18 | Missouri | 17 |
Total Defense (123 ranked) | 68 | 11 | 398.9 | Michigan St. | 210.2 | Alabama | 280.9 |
Scoring Defense (123 ranked) | 22 | 3 | 20.1 | Alabama | 9.8 | Alabama | 9.8 |
Team Pass Sacks (123 ranked) | 42 | 4 | 2.33 | East Carolina | 3.63 | Missouri | 3.00 |
Team Tackles for Loss (123 ranked) | 16 | 2 | 7.4 | Clemson | 9.4 | Missouri | 7.6 |
Red Zone Defense (123 ranked) | 12 | 2 | 0.700 | Baylor | 0.550 | Alabama | 0.692 |
Defensive observations. Warning: Looks like another bamboo defense this week. You'd think that a team that's toward the bottom of the rankings in Passing Yards Allowed but toward the top in Red Zone Defense would do so by keeping receivers in front of them until the field shrinks to a more manageable size to defend. (We didn't need to buy this argument from Missouri when they made it last week, because the Tigers' Red Zone Defense ranked only 83rd.) A key difference between this week and last week is that Missouri's run defense was strong, and Auburn's is only 47th. So does that mean the Vols should pass until the field shrinks and then run in the red zone? Sure, let's try that. Because something's happening when teams are close to the goal line against the Tigers making it more difficult to score against them than it is to gain yards.
SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS | |||||||
Statistic | National Rank |
Conference Rank | Value | National Leader | Value | Conference Leader | Value |
Net Punting (123 ranked) | 12 | 3 | 40.39 | Purdue | 43.12 | Texas A&M | 41.27 |
Punt Return Defense (123 ranked) | 20 | 3 | 4.00 | Boise St. | -0.38 | LSU | 0.90 |
Punt Returns (123 ranked) | 72 | 7 | 7.52 | Kansas St. | 21.71 | Ole Miss | 15.00 |
Kickoff Return Defense (123 ranked) | 115 | 14 | 25.50 | Vanderbilt | 13.92 | Vanderbilt | 13.92 |
Kickoff Returns (123 ranked) | 22 | 4 | 23.95 | Stanford | 29.44 | Alabama | 27.24 |
Turnover Margin (123 ranked) | 53 | 7 | 0.2 | Houston | 2.5 | Missouri | 1.7 |
Fewest Penalties Per Game (123 ranked) | 25 | 3 | 4.78 | Navy | 2.75 | Arkansas | 4.22 |
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game (123 ranked) | 31 | 6 | 41.89 | Navy | 23.13 | Tennessee | 36.56 |
Special teams and turnovers observations. Hey, Devrin. See that triple digit? Okay. Go. Fair catch those punts, but run like the wind on kickoffs.
Players to Watch
Category | Player | National Rank |
Value |
OFFENSE | |||
Rushing Yards (300 ranked) |
Tre Mason Nick Marshall Cameron Artis-Payne Corey Grant |
13 90 94 122 |
921 520 515 456 |
Rushing Yards Per Game (300 ranked) |
Tre Mason Nick Marshall Cameron Artis-Payne Corey Grant |
22 92 118 148 |
102.3 65.0 57.2 50.7 |
Passing Efficiency (112 ranked) | Nick Marshall | 53 | 139.1 |
Passing TDs (131 ranked) |
Nick Marshall Jeremy Johnson |
94 107 |
7 6 |
Passing Yards (135 ranked) | Nick Marshall | 90 | 1,266 |
Passing Yards Per Game (135 ranked) | Nick Marshall | 92 | 158.3 |
Passing Yards per Completion (112 ranked) | Nick Marshall | 15 | 14.07 |
Total Offense (300 ranked) |
Nick Marshall Tre Mason Cameron Artis-Payne Corey Grant |
62 143 240 268 |
223.3 102.3 57.2 50.7 |
Receiving Yards (400 ranked) | Sammie Coates | 50 | 638 |
Receiving Yards Per Game (400 ranked) | Sammie Coates | 71 | 70.9 |
Receptions Per Game (395 ranked) | Sammie Coates | 293 | 2.7 |
Scoring (246 ranked) |
Tre Mason Cody Parkey |
17 61 |
9.3 7.7 |
Offensive Observations. QB Nick Marshall returned from a shoulder injury against Arkansas and went 7-8 for 118 through the air and added 59 yards on the ground. The real workhorse on the offense, though, is Tre Mason, who's averaging over 100 yards per game and had 178 against Texas A&M. Last week, he went for 168 and four TDs. When Marshall does decide to pass, he mainly goes to Sammie Coates. We should put two guys on Coates and the other nine in the box to stop Mason and Marshall. I'm only half kidding. Well, maybe 3/4s.
Category | Player | National Rank |
Actual |
DEFENSE | |||
Interceptions (239 ranked) |
Robenson Therezie Ryan Smith |
70 193 |
0.3 0.2 |
Pass Sacks (68 ranked) | Dee Ford | 7 | 1.0 |
Solo Tackles (57 ranked) | |||
Tackles For Loss (32 ranked) | Dee Ford | 23 | 1.4 |
Total Tackles (392 ranked) | Chris Davis | 271 | 6.1 |
Defense. Playing the part of Jadeveon Clowney and Michael Sam this week is defensive lineman Dee Ford. Whatcha gonna do with him, o-line?
Category | Player | National Rank |
Actual |
SPECIAL TEAMS | |||
Punt Return TDs (6 ranked) | |||
Punt Returns (72 ranked) | Quan Bray | 59 | 5.1 |
Punting (95 ranked) | Steven Clark | 31 | 42.5 |
Kickoff Return TDs (4 ranked) | Tre Mason | 4 | 1 |
Kickoff Returns (102 ranked) | |||
Field Goal Percentage (98 ranked) | Cody Parkey | 56 | 0.769 |
Field Goals Per Game (130 ranked) | Cody Parkey | 55 | 1.1 |
All Purpose (250 ranked) | Tre Mason | 16 | 141.22 |
Special teams. Tre Mason is an all-purpose monster, adding kickoff return duties to his running back role. He's been somewhat pedestrian returning kicks laterly, but he did return one for a TD against Washington State in the opener.