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Reweighing expectations for the Vols after the bye week

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Weighing the Vols' chances against their remaining schedule: Week 11.

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

The Vols didn't play this weekend, but two of three of our future opponents did. Let's see how they did to determine whether we need to adjust our expectations for the rest of the season using the 5-30 point ranking system.

11/15/14: Kentucky (5-5, 2-5 SEC, NR)

  • Week 1: Beat UT Martin, 59-14.
  • Week 2: Beat Ohio, 20-3.
  • Week 3: Barely lost to Florida in the Swamp, 36-30 in triple overtime.
  • Week 4: Bye.
  • Week 5: Beat Vanderbilt, 17-7.
  • Week 6: Beat South Carolina, 45-38.
  • Week 7: Beat UL Monroe, 48-14.
  • Week 8: Lost to LSU, 41-3.
  • Week 9: Lost to Mississippi State at home, 45-31.
  • Week 10: Lost to Missouri, 20-10.
  • Week 11: Lost to Georgia, 63-31.
  • Week 12: VOLS.
  • Week 13: Bye.
  • Week 14: Louisville.
  • Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 23, but I'm still very wary of this game. That final score against Georgia doesn't make them look very good, and looking at the box score doesn't make it look much better. The defense looks really suspect, although it should be noted that putting up 31 points on Georgia really doesn't sound like the old Kentucky. Also, they didn't lay down once they got behind, so the Vols need to bring their A Game for 60 minutes.
EARLIER PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY
W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11
20 20 20 20 19 19 23* 23

11/22/14: Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC, NR)

  • Week 1: Beat South Dakota State, 38-18.
  • Week 2: Beat Toledo, 49-24.
  • Week 3: Beat UCF, 38-10.
  • Week 4: Lost to Indiana, 31-27.
  • Week 5: Beat South Carolina, 21-20.
  • Week 6: Bye.
  • Week 7: Got shut out and gave up 34 to a Todd Gurley-less Georgia, losing 34-0.
  • Week 8: Beat Florida, 42-13. Two pick sixes and two special teams touchdowns helps explain 42 points on barely over 100 yards on offense. Good news and bad news for Tennessee.
  • Week 9: Beat Vanderbilt, 24-14.
  • Week 10: Beat Kentucky, 20-10.
  • Week 11: Bye.
  • Week 12: At Texas A&M.
  • Week 13: VOLS.
  • Week 14: Arkansas.
  • Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 19. These guys were off, too, which leaves me "still very confused about this team," just like last week.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

EARLIER PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI
W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11
18 18 18 23 20 22 19 19

11/29/14: Vanderbilt (3-7, 0-6 SEC, NR)

  • Week 1: Lost to Temple, 37-7.
  • Week 2: Lost to Ole Miss, 41-3.
  • Week 3: Beat UMass, 34-31.
  • Week 4: Lost to South Carolina, 48-34.
  • Week 5: Lost to Kentucky, 17-7.
  • Week 6: Lost to Georgia, 44-17.
  • Week 7: Beat Charlie Southern. By a point. 21-20.
  • Week 8: Bye.
  • Week 9: Lost to Missouri, 24-14.
  • Week 10: Beat Old Dominion, 42-28.
  • Week 11: Lost to Florida, 34-10. Sounds about right.
  • Week 12: Bye.
  • Week 13: At Mississippi State.
  • Week 14: VOLS.
  • Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 28. Not much to say here, so I'll just point out that Vandy's two best games of the year are a three-point win over UMass and a win over Old Dominion.
EARLIER PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT
W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11
27 27 24 25 24 27 28 28

It's the last three weeks, y'all. Vandy looks as close to a win as you can imagine against an SEC team, which means we need to close the deal on that one and then at least split Kentucky and Missouri. Kentucky looks like they can be dangerous but handled as long as we don't sleep on them, which I don't think is going to happen. Missouri looks both better and worse than Kentucky, so we'll assume better for now.

The Vols' chances of winning each of the rest of their games, on a scale from 5-30.

PREDICTIONS
5-30 SCALE W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11
5
6
7
8 Ole Miss (L; 34-3)
9 Ole Miss Alabama (L; 34-20)
10 Alabama Alabama
11
12
13 Alabama
14
15
16
17
18 Missouri Missouri South Carolina South Carolina (W; 45-42)
19 Ole Miss Kentucky Kentucky Missouri Missouri
20 Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky Missouri
21 South Carolina South Carolina South Carolina
22 Missouri
23 Florida (L; 10-9) Missouri Kentucky Kentucky
24 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt
25 UTC (W; 45-10) Vanderbilt
26
27 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt
28 UTC Vanderbilt Vanderbilt
29
30