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Rocky Top Locks, Week 12

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The slow slide to .500 (for Chris and I_S) continues unabated.

Kevin C. Cox

Current Standings

  • KidB:  4-2 Last week, 35-29-2 overall (55%)
  • Chris: 2-4 Last week, 32-33-1 overall (49%)
  • I_S:   3=3 Last week, 31-33-2 overall (48%)
Interesting Note: If one were to actually bet on sports contests -- which would be difficult as gambling is clearly not legal here in this country...but hypothetically -- one would need to hit 52.4% of their bets to break even (the reason it's over half is because of the "juice" (with an even money, against-the-spread wager, you have to risk, e.g., $110 to win $100)).  Just an FYI.

Chris's "2013 Was So Last Year" Picks

South Carolina (+7) v. Florida - This feels like Spurrier spent two weeks cooking up hilarious ways to poke Will Muschamp. Or, you know, he spent two weeks on the links and has stopped caring. I can't tell with my picks anyway.

TCU (-28.5) @ Kansas - Kansas is beating-Iowa-State good, but not, um, actually good.

Notre Dame (-17.5) v. Northwestern - I don't know what happened with Pat Fitzgerald, but Northwestern is fifteen kinds of questionable right now.

Arizona (-9) v. Washington - I keep on thinking Arizona is undervalued pretty much every week and I'm pretty sure I'm like 0-for-the-season with them.

Auburn (+2.5) @ Georgia - I can't believe this line is a real thing.

Florida State (-2.5) @ Miami - Fortunately, this is a full-game line and not an after-three-quarters line. Or even after-two-quarters line.

KidB's "Free Money" Picks

South Carolina+7 over FLORIDA:  The old adage goes that Vegas sets the spreads not necessarily to be an accurate reflection of the eventual margin of victory, but to split public money right down the center. And so the handicapper who set this spread thinks that the betting public is looking to Florida's wins over (a) a team coached by Mark Richt, a man known for nothing if not puzzling losses to inferior teams, and (b) the worst SEC team in the modern era of the league, and seeing some kind of program resurgence.  Call me contrarian then, because I think Florida still blows.

And the good news with this pick is if Florida wins and covers that just increases the odds of Muschampionships Year 5.

Clemson-3 over GEORGIA TECH:  The Ramblin' Wreck have been good to me the last couple weeks, but I have to temporarily jump off the bandwagon here.  Deshaun Watson is back for Clemson, which means that they will again be able to score consistently.  And I don't love the matchup for GT when they are on offense.  Clemson actually has a pretty solid defensive line, which is generally a recipe for success against the triple option.  But mostly.....Deshaun Watson.

ARKANSAS STATE-14.5 OVER Appalachian State:  I definitely liked this game more when the spread was 13, but I'll roll with it anyway.  Appy State appears to be improving as the season progresses, but has surely benefitted over their three game winning streak by playing the likes of Some Guy Named Troy, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe.  Arky State is appreciably better than any of the aforementioned teams and should win comfortably at home.

Florida State-2.5 over MIAMI:  "Miami sure does have a loyal fanbase and crazy loud fans who create a really hostile environment for opposing teams," said no one, ever.  I mean, seriously Vegas, you shouldn't need to be reminded about stuff like this.  Do you also need to be reminded to wear pants?

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Auburn+2.5 over GEORGIA: Is Vegas getting a tax write-off on this game or something?  This line seems charitable.  No, seriously, does anyone have Title 26 of the United States Code handy?

Georgia Southern+3 over NAVY:  I jumped off the bandwagon of a different Georgia school that had been giving me nice comfortable rides to Spreadcoverville, but I'm gonna stay on this one.  Hopefully I chose my bandwagons correctly.

I_S' Picks

Temple +11.5 over Penn State. Penn State scored 13 points against Indiana. Temple has a competent defense. The Nittany Lions might be able to win this one 12-0, but it will require a defensive touchdown and a safety.

Iowa -3.5 over Illinois. I tried fading Illinois once before, and they put up one of the most baffling results of the B1G season. But they're still not good, so I'll try it again.

Georgia Southern +3 over Navy. Georgia Southern might be the most undervalued team in college football this season. Navy knows their offense, sure, but they know Navy's too.

Memphis -10.5 over Tulane. Tulane had a great result last week, but I'm betting on the whole body of work outweighing one good game.

Cal +15 over Southern Cal. Cal has played some tight games against some solid teams this season.

Boise/SDSU over 55. Boise has been all about drawing opponents into shootouts recently. Why not keep it up?

Your turn.  Go!