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Rocky Top Locks, Week 11

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Winter is coming and Vegas is cruel, but cripple fights are still fun for everyone.

you think anyone's gonna notice I left this caption to be edited no huh okay
you think anyone's gonna notice I left this caption to be edited no huh okay
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Current Standings

KidB: 6-0 this week, 31-27-2 overall.

Chris: 2-4 this week, 30-29-1 overall.

I_S: 1-4-1 this week, 28-30-2 overall.

Chris's "2013 Was So Last Year" Picks

Clemson (-21) @ Wake Forest - sure, I'll fade the Clawfense.

Wisconsin (-17) @ Purdue - sure, I'll fade Purdue.

West Virginia (-3.5) @ Texas - something something Library something or other.

Florida State (-19.5) v. Virginia - this should at least guarantee a Florida State loss.

Michigan State (-3.5) v. Ohio State - I've been waiting to bite against Ohio State all season.

Arizona (-17) v. Colorado - is it obvious I hastily made these picks?

KidB's "Free Money" Picks

Baylor+6 over OKLAHOMA: Hey guys, try to keep this on the down low, because I really don't want word to get back to Vegas, but Baylor is going to win this game outright.  You didn't hear it from me.

Georgia Tech-3.5 over NC STATE: I can think of approximately zero compelling reasons why I would jump off the Ramblin' Wreck train.  And I can think of at least two good reasons why I should stay on it.  To wit:  (a) they keep covering spreads, and (b) Vegas does not appear to be setting lines in a way that would make part a more difficult. Triple option 4 life!

Duke-3 over SYRACUSE: Duke can really score, and Syracuse really can't.  It's almost as if their offensive players have bologna sandwiches where their feet should be.


Penn State-7 over INDIANA: I liked this game a lot more when it was Penn State-5, but I'm gonna stick with it despite the less favorable line because Indiana has just been real real bad.  And yet they beat the team that might end up winning the SEC-E.  It's weird that in a year when the East is as mediocre as it is, that there wasn't a team that had recently gotten a massive injection of talent on both sides of the ball to step up and assert themselves as the Alpha Males in a division that's seemingly begging for it.  Not that I'm referring to any team in particular.  Just spitballing.

FLORIDA STATE-19.5 over VIRGINIA:  So there are some allegations -- no, more like insinuations -- that Jameis Winston might have done some point shaving in the first half of last Thursday's game against Louisville.  I want to go out of my way to stress that I'm not suggesting anything one way or another regarding the veracity of the claims in that article. But I will say that if Jameis Winston did do what the article alleges, then he's even better at football than I thought.  And, to be clear, I think Jameis Winston is really really good at football. But to knowingly spot a top 25 team 21 points in a Thursday night road game on Halloween would require a level of confidence that I am simply unable to even fathom.

By the way, FSU covered the spread against Louisville.  They worked them over in the second half. Anyway, so long as FSU doesn't fool around with any intentional or unintentional first half point spotting against Virginia at home this Saturday, they should win with ease.  UVA can't score a lick, and Jameis Winston has never put fewer than 31 on the board.  I think this is a game where FSU would almost have to go out of its way to not cover.  Hopefully they don't do that.

Louisville-3 over BOSTON COLLEGE:  Speaking of Louisville, I was dismissive of their offense last week in assessing their chances against Free Shoes, and I'll have to stand corrected on that front.  The last time I had seen them play they didn't have Jevante Parker, Michael Dyer, or Will Gardner.  Last Thursday they had all three, and it made a noticeable difference.

I_S' "Milos Raonic Quality" Picks

Georgia State +7 over Troy. I picked Georgia State last week and got burned with one of the most completely horrible games you can imagine. But Troy is really quite atrocious, and Georgia State won't be that bad every week.

Washington State +8 over Oregon State. Oregon State has really done nothing this season to indicate any quality. Washington State isn't good, but they can at least play interesting games when facing other non-good teams.

Michigan State -3.5 over Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been racking up the points on bad teams, but I don't think playing a good defense will be pleasant for them.

Oregon -8 over Utah. Really just not convinced by the Utes this year. They play close games against solid teams. They play close games against bad teams. Teams that play close games against everyone often don't play close games against Oregon. Schedule placement does make me a big nervous though.

Old Dominion -4.5 over FIU. ODU can score, and even if this doesn't really become a shootout, I don't think Ron Turner's bunch can keep up with a competent offense.

Louisiana Tech -4 over UAB. Tech has stumbled a couple times this year, but not in games that were supposed to be close. They have a gear that UAB just don't.

Bonus Section: You Do Not Want to Miss These Cripple Fights

SMU+12 @ Tulsa:  SMU is just unspeakably bad this year.  Not only have they not won a game; I don't believe they've even covered a spread.  It's one of those teams that's so bad that you don't ask questions, you just fade.  But then:  Tulsa.  Man if they don't make you ask questions.  I don't think that SMU will win a game this season, but if they're gonna win a game, it would be this one.

Georgia State+7 @ Troy:  I audibly laughed when I saw that I_S included this as one of his games.  I didn't audibly laugh because I think his pick is necessarily a bad one, because I honestly don't know who you would back in this game, or how one would ever arrive at one side or another.  I_S went FULL Cripple Fight, man.  I've always operated according to the principle that you never go FULL Cripple Fight.  We'll see how it works out for him.  In the meantime, Georgia State vs. Troy makes me go bahahahahahahahaha.

And in other Cripple Fight news, Eastern Michigan has the week off.

Your turn.  Put your picks in the comments.  At the very least, you're likely to do better than I_S.