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Rocky Top Locks Bowl Edition: Pt. 2 of 3

Super happy to see Justin Worley get a bowl game start, you guys
Super happy to see Justin Worley get a bowl game start, you guys
Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

As you saw from the last "locks" recap of the regular season, I_S took the regular season title by a comfortable margin after finishing the last two weeks out on a 9-2-1 tear.  But as we did last season, we're treating bowl season as a separate competition and starting over with a clean slate.


Yeah, you read that right. Every single game. Here's how we're doing this: every game, each of us is either playing the line, the over/under, or a (even money) prop bet.

We're breaking this out into three posts because a single post with 38 bowl picks would be ginormous and unruly.  Here's how we're breaking it out:

We haven't decided what to do about the national championship game.  We could either update part 3 to include it, or do a separate post wrapping up the results, including our picks for the final game, and using that as a championship game thread.  We'll figure out a game plan and lay it out in our part 3 post.

Current Standings

  • KidB:  7-6
  • Chris: 7-6
  • I_S:    6-7

A Humble Request

Join in the fun by putting your own picks in the comments.  It's more fun when everybody plays.

The Games In Question:

Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
Annapolis, Md.
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Dec. 27
1 p.m.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Arizona State vs. Duke
El Paso, Texas
Sun Bowl
Dec. 27
2 p.m.
Duck Commander Independence Bowl
Miami vs. South Carolina
Shreveport, La.
Independence Stadium
Dec. 27
3:30 p.m.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Boston College vs. Penn State
Bronx, N.Y.
Yankee Stadium
Dec. 27
4:30 p.m.
National University Holiday Bowl
Nebraska vs. USC
San Diego
Qualcomm Stadium
Dec. 27
8 p.m.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Texas A&M vs. West Virginia
Memphis, Tenn.
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Dec. 29
2 p.m.
Russell Athletic Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Clemson
Orlando, Fla.
Florida Citrus Bowl
Dec. 29
5:30 p.m.
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Arkansas vs. Texas
NRG Stadium
Dec. 29
9 p.m.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Notre Dame vs. LSU
Nashville, Tenn.
LP Field
Dec. 30
3 p.m.
Belk Bowl
Georgia vs. Louisville
Charlotte, N.C.
Bank of America Stadium
Dec. 30
6:30 p.m.
Foster Farms Bowl
Maryland vs. Stanford
Santa Clara, Calif.
Levi's Stadium
Dec. 30
10 p.m.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 TCU
Georgia Dome
Dec. 31
12:30 p.m.
VIZIO Fiesta Bowl
No. 20 Boise State vs. No. 10 Arizona
Glendale, Ariz.
University of Phoenix Stadium
Dec. 31
4 p.m.
Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech
Miami Gardens, Fla.
Sun Life Stadium
Dec. 31
8 p.m.

And, now, finally...the picks:

I_S' "Milos Does Win SOME Tournaments" Picks

VT/Cincy under 50.5. Both of these teams are pretty bad this season, but VT is particularly bad at scoring and decent at defense. Cincy can score alright, but only against CUSA teams, so. . .

Duke +7 over Arizona State. Could be a repeat of last year for ASU. But even if it isn't, Duke can score, and they should be able to hang close.

Miami -3 over USC. I like fading the disappointed team. Both of these teams are disappointed to be here, but South Carolina probably more so after being a preseason top five team (remember that?).

Boston College -3 over Penn State. I would take the under, but it's already in the 30s, so. . . whatever, I don't like James Franklin.

Southern Cal -7 over Nebraska. Can the Trojans spin this as a solid building block in their first year under a new coach? Nebraska can't.

West Virginia -1 over Texas A&M. Pick the team that wants to be here. All day.

Oklahoma -3.5 over Clemson. Oklahoma doesn't want to be here, but Clemson doesn't have Deshaun Watson, so. . .

Arkansas -6 over Texas. S-E-C! S-E-C! S-E-C!

ND/LSU under 52. If LSU can play a tight, low-scoring game against Texas A&M, surely they can do so against Notre Dame.

Louisville +7 over Georgia. Pick the team that wants to be here.

Maryland +14 over Stanford. Pick the team that wants to be here.

Ole Miss +3.5 over TCU. Pick the team that wants to be here.

Arizona -3 over Boise State. If both teams want to be here, pick the team that's good.

GT/MSU under 61. Option team in a bowl game? Against a good defense? Under all day. Possibly my favorite pick of bowl season.

KidB's "Free Money (for real this time)" Picks

Cincinnati-3 over Virginia Tech:  Va Tech blows.

Arizona State-7 over Duke:  I picked this line on the nose, so it's a coin flip for me.

South Carolina+3 over The Team Formerly Known As "The U":  Ugh.  Do I have to pick South Carolina?

Boston College-3 over Penn State:  I also picked this line nearly on the nose.  So this isn't a high confidence pick.

USC-7 over Nebraska:  Again, I picked this on the nose.  This is becoming a theme.

WVU-1 over Texas A&M:  This set of games has presented some difficult choice.

Oklahoma-3.5 over Clemson:  Clemson is garbagioso with their garbagioso QB.

Texas+6 over Arkansas:  Texas was quite respectable towards the end of the year.

Notre Dame+7.5 over LSU:  I pegged this game at an even 7 points, so I'll take the hook, and go with the Domers.

Louisville+7 over UGA:  What do we know about fading the Butt Cut?

Maryland+14 over Stanford:  B1G, baby!

TCU-3.5 over Ole Miss:  TCU is gonna score

Arizona-3 over Boise:  This isn't your older brother's Boise State team

Mississippi-6.5 over Georgia Tech:  Another tough one.  I've decided I can't fade every SEC team but one.  I just can't imagine that would be wise.

Chris's "Bread AND Circuses" Picks

Cincinnati (-3) v. Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech has the best unit, but their offense is so, so bad. Like, debilitatingly bad. Like, I'm stuck taking Tommy Tuberville bad.

Arizona State (-7) v. Duke - I want to take Duke here. Arizona State's really good, though, even with that half-point.

Miami (FL) v. South Carolina OVER 61 - I don't trust either defense in this game, and when the Ol' Ball Coach doesn't care, neither does the defense.

Boston College (-3) v. Penn State - Can we all just agree that everyone's getting this game right, because the alternative is watching arguably the only Power Five offensive line worse than Tennessee's?

USC (-7) v. Nebraska - betting against Nebraska more than for Southern Cal here, although Nine-Win Sark kind of terrifies me as a concept. Let's just move on.

WVU (-1) v. Texas A&M - shamelessly stealing a line from Bomani Jones: the next good defense Kevin Sumlin fields will be the first one. West Virginia kind of has a defense, which makes them an easy enough back.

Oklahoma (-3.5) v. Clemson - I'd back Vandy giving a TD against a Cole Stoudt-led Clemson team, to give you an idea of how little I like Clemson in this matchup. (Okay, I'd need 10.5 to back Vandy, but the point remains.)

Arkansas (-6) v. Texas - I've flipped on this twice already, so I'm just locking in Arkansas before I triple-guess myself. Feels like I'm backing one too many SEC teams, though.

LSU (-7.5) v. Notre Dame - On the other hand, I feel pretty good about this one.

Georgia (-7) v. Louisville - When you lose an offensive coordinator, you tend to dial the gameplan back a bit, go back to your roots. That means you run the dang ball. You run the dang ball all the dang time.

Maryland (+14) v. Stanford - Calling this one as a 15-2 Stanford win, unless Stanford magically figured out red zone offense while we were sleeping.

TCU (-3.5) v. Ole Miss - I see you, ragingly pissed-off TCU looking to leave a message for next year as they've now learned that beauty pageants like the national playoff are forged over multiple seasons.

Arizona (-3) v. Boise State - I hate you, Arizona. I hate you so, so much. You and Arizona State. Why can't y'all just play each other every week so I only miss one game instead of two?

Mississippi State (-6.5) v. Georgia Tech - I really like what Paul Johnson did this year, but I'm applying the "don't back a triple option team going into bowl season" logic here, which is one of the few things I'm consistent with. Also, Ted Roof defense, Dak Prescott, and I feel more or less okay about this one.

Your turn.  Go!