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Win Totals, Probabilities, Percentages, Oh My!

Are the Vols more likely to miss a bowl game again this year, barely squeak in with 6 wins, stroll comfortably in with 7, or roar in forcefully with 8 or more?

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Vegas has UT's win total set at 5.5
Vegas has UT's win total set at 5.5
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Who said message boards were a waste of time?  Sometimes they provide you with just the answer you're looking for.  Here is what I was looking for: I wanted to be able to go through UT's schedule, assign a likelihood of winning to each individual game -- for example, I'm 99% sure we'll beat Chattanooga, and slightly less sure that we'll beat Alabama -- and then, with these numbers in hand, find a way to figure out the corresponding percentages for achieving certain win totals (i.e., given my numbers, what are the chances that we win 7 games?  8 games?  etc.)

I knew this could be done, but I didn't know how to do it.  And like a previous instance when I wanted to know how to do some sports-related numbers crunching, I wasn't bashful about asking, and it turned that out somebody over at did know how to do it, and the end result is that we now have a fancy schmancy online calculator to do the heavy lifting for us.  WooHoo!  Let's make like cool kids and play with our calculators. Here is your assignment:

1)  Go through the 2014 football schedule and assign a likelihood of winning to each game.1

2)  Click on THIS LINK.  Type in 12 (for 12 regular season games).  Hit enter.

3)  Type your percentages from step 1 into the boxes (e.g., for 50%, type .50).  Hit enter.

4)  Copy and paste your results into the comments.

5)  ???

6)  Profit!


Vol Miscellany


1. If you don't think in terms of probabilities, then just predict a final score for each game, and use the below table for your probabilities.

Margin Of Victory %
3 .57
7 .72
10 .78
14 .84
17 .87
21 .91
28 .95