RTT's Locks and Not Keys, Week 1

We don't like to talk about the past here at Rocky Top Talk. We do, however, like to gloat about it.

In related news, Chris utterly dominated wrecked shop pulled a Lance Armstrong on a mountain climb against the rest of the picking crew, minus the blood doping. (We think. There's really no point in blood doping for this, but if he did that's on him.) With both regular season and bowl season wins over the crew, he's well set to be wildly overconfident and finish at a solid .450 clip.

His keys to success: pound the under on terrible offense all day long and ride Baylor until they get too injured to do anything. In related news: what up, Will Muschamp!

kidbourbon finished second last season in both the regular season and the bowl season. He's back, presumably to make slightly more sense than he did last year but early returns are errant like so many Tyler Bray passes.

His key to success: play favorites, avoid the over/unders, make fun of Milos Raonic on a regular basis. Solid plan for success.

Last--and we do mean last--I_S struggled to break .500. His key to success: [ERROR DOES NOT COMPUTE]. Best as we can figure, he'd take bizarre lines to be contrarian. Maybe he was just acting out. It's okay, I_S. You're among friends here.

Friends who will make fun of your picks if .500 is nothing but a distant dream for you again.

Here's the deal:  We each pick six games a week -- either against-the-spread, over/under, or another even-money proposition -- and we keep track of how we do as we go.  KidB will obviously win this year, and by a comfortable margin. Think you can do better than him (or the others)? Money where your mouth is, then; the comments are right down there. Put in your picks, and keep track as you go.  If you have a coin nearby, you can use that to make your picks and you'll likely fare better than I_S.  So you'll have that going for you, which is something.  And with that said, let's get to it!

Chris's "The Defending Champion" Picks

Arizona (-23.5) vs. UNLV

The Pac-12 is scary good, and UNLV is charitably considered dangerous at home. This, however, is not in Las Vegas, Arizona is loaded for bear, and UNLV doesn't have the horses to keep up with Arizona.

Marshall (-24) @ Miami (OH)

Marshall is getting some justified potential undefeated season hype. While undefeated is probably a bit much to ask, the Redhawks have been abject at best and this line feels at least 4.5 points too low, so sure, I'll hop on the Doc Holliday bandwagon.

Idaho @ Florida UNDER 51

YES COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK GIMME THAT FLORIDA UNDER

/ignores how putrid Idaho is

//ignores about 850 Florida injuries in 2013

///points to empty seats

PUNCHO

Baylor (-33) vs. SMU

In keeping up with a Week 1 theme, just hammer big favorites against overmatched teams. SMU is a fine enough mid-major, I guess, but Baylor will just pour on points and there's no way the Ponies can keep up with it. One TD margin per alleged body in the trunk and we're good to go.

Louisville (-3.5) vs. Miami

Bobby Petrino is a good coach. He's probably going to crash and burn horrifically before it's all said and done-and it's not a good sign if he's already getting into it with Todd Grantham-but there's more than enough talent for Petrino to work with, and Miami is in this weird spot where the pieces don't add up to the sum. Or, y'know, Jake Heaps transferred from a Charlie Weis program to a place where he thought he could succeed, Miami still has questions on defense, and Petrino can coach offense from the back of a motorcycle.

UL-Monroe (-2) vs. Wake Forest

Never said I never did anything nice for you, Will. Also, Wake Forest is going to be awful in 2014, UL-Funroe was actually decent the last couple seasons, Todd Barry is a capable coach, and why on earth is this a road game for Wake? Someone should tell them they're still in a major conference, even if it appears to be a rounding error at this point.

KidB's "Free Money" Picks

TAMU+10.5 over STEVE SPURRIER:  The Kid doesn't think this line makes a whole lot of sense.  Somebody thinks the ole ball coach has a really good football team apparently.  This Guy has two thumbs and disagrees.

Ole Miss-10.5 over Boise: This is not your older brother's Boise State team.  And I really like this Ole Miss team.  Dr. Bo, and all that jazz.

Marshall-24 over HIPSTER MIAMI:  Hipster Miami was really bad at football before it was cool to be really bad at football.

Boston College-17 over UMASS:  If Boston College can't cover this they should be kicked out of the ACC.  Hold on, that didn't make any sense.  Either way, UMASS is ba-aa-aaa-aaaad.

FLORIDA-36.5 over Idaho:  If Florida can't cover this, then Tennessee fans should smile.  This Idaho team was literally one of the worst in the country last year.  Believe me, I backwards-rank the teams every week.  I call it my "Pure Trash" ranking.  And Idaho was always in contention for the Pure Trash championship last year, and there's no indication this team has learned to play football at an appreciably higher level in the last 9 months.  Go gata!  P.S - if Florida wins by 35 I will be highly annoyed as this moved from -34.5

MISSISSIPPI STATE-30.5 OVER Southern Miss:  If The Fighting Cowbells are even a smidgeon of what they're supposed to be, they cover this spread in the first half.

I_S's "Milos Raonic Quality" Picks

Colorado (-3) over Colorado State. CSU is rebuilding on both lines, and Mike MacIntyre is good at coaching football.

Virginia (+21) over UCLA. Does this feel to anyone else like a game that UCLA forgets starts at 9 AM? No? Just me?

Cal/Northwestern OVER 60. I don't care who you are, Sonny Dykes can draw you into a shootout.

New Mexico (-8) over UTEP. The Lobos will definitely be able to run on UTEP. All their defense needs is a mild step forward to make this an easy win.

Baylor (-33) over SMU. As long as Art Briles has no problem running up scores, maybe I should ride with Chris.

Ohio State (-16.5) over Navy. The loss of Braxton Miller brings this line down several points, but Urban Meyer can coach an offense and doesn't mind running up the score.