Weighing the Vols' chances against their remaining schedule

We now have four weeks of games under our belts, and it's time to start reassessing the Vols' chances of going bowling in 2014. Below is the remainder of Tennessee's schedule, their opponents' respective records and results, and my best guess as to the Vols' chances of beating them. My rating is on a scale of 5-30, where 5 is Never Gonna Happen and 30 is Absolutely Certain to Happen. So here we go.

9/27/14: @Georgia Bulldogs (2-1, 0-1 SEC, #13)

• Week 1: Beat Clemson, 45-21.
• Week 2: Bye.
• Week 3: Lost to South Carolina, 38-35.
• Week 4: Destroyed Troy, 66-0.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'm going with 10. One one hand, this is one of four teams that present the biggest challenge for Tennessee. On the other hand, we've played them tough recently with worse teams.

10/4/14: Florida (2-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• Week 1: Canceled.
• Week 2: Beat Eastern Michigan, 65-0.
• Week 3: Barely escaped Kentucky, 36-30 in triple overtime.
• Week 4: Lost to Alabama, 42-21. Bama handed them at least 14 of those 21 points.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 23. The main reason this isn't higher is that I've picked the Vols to win in something like 2 of the last 3 seasons and something has gone dreadfully wrong each time. But it sure looks like Muschamp still has his meaty fist strangling the offensive coordinator and the Gators offense, so . . . yeah, 23.

10/11/14: Chattanooga (1-2, 0-0 Southern, NR)

• Week 1: Lost to Central Michigan, 20-16.
• Week 2: Lost to Jacksonville State, 26-23 in overtime.
• Week 3: Beat Austin-Peay, 42-6.
• Week 4: Bye.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 28. Enough said.

10/18/14: @Ole Miss (3-0, 1-0 SEC, #10)

• Week 1: Beat Boise State, 35-13.
• Week 2: Beat Vanderbilt, 41-3.
• Week 3: Beat LA-Lafayette, 56-15.
• Week 4: Bye.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 10. Yeah, same as Georgia, but for different reasons. Probably not as good, but also probably not as flaky.

10/25/14: Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #3)

• Week 1: Beat West Virginia, 33-23.
• Week 2: Beat Florida Atlantic, 41-0.
• Week 3: Beat Beat Souther Miss, 52-12.
• Week 4: Beat Florida, 42-21.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'm going with an 8 here. Sure, it's Bama, and Bama's being Bama what with its ranked 3rd-in-the-country thing. But Bama's not really looked like Bama, has it? Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy against the Gators, and while West Virginia looks pretty good, the other three teams probably aren't very good at all. And yet, Bama, so 8.

11/01/14: @South Carolina (3-1, 2-1 SEC, #14)

• Week 1: Got pinned against Texas A&M at home, 52-28.
• Week 2: Beat East Carolina, 33-23.
• Week 3: Beat Georgia, 38-35.
• Week 4: Beat Vanderbilt, 48-34.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 15. Hey, got 'em last year, and we were worse while they were arguably better. But it's at their place, so I'm not getting carried away.

11/8/14: Bye

11/15/14: Kentucky (2-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• Week 1: Beat UT Martin, 59-14.
• Week 2: Beat Ohio, 20-3.
• Week 3: Barely lost to Florida in the Swamp, 36-30 in triple overtime.
• Week 4: Bye.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'm going to go with 23, but I'm also going to call Kentucky 2014 the Missouri 2013 of 2014. Not that they're going to win the SEC East or anything, but I'm thinking they're one of those teams that are pretty good but that you won't admit are good for several weeks after it's already happened. Still think we win, but this is likely a much tougher game than we believed it to be before the season began.

11/22/14: Missouri (3-1, 0-0 SEC, #18)

• Week 1: Beat South Dakota State, 38-18.
• Week 2: Beat Toledo, 49-24.
• Week 3: Beat UCF, 38-10.
• Week 4: Lost to Indiana, 31-27.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): First, a question. How do you beat those three teams, lose to Indiana, and keep your ranking of 18th in the nation? Inertia? [UPDATE: I swear that ESPN said MO was ranked 18th this morning on either the UT or MO page. In any event, they're no longer ranked, so . . . good.) Anyway, I'm going to go with an 18 here. I don't trust them, either to be good or to not beat us.

11/29/14: Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)

• Week 1: Lost to Temple, 37-7.
• Week 2: Lost to Ole Miss, 41-3.
• Week 3: Beat UMass, 34-31.
• Week 4: Lost to South Carolina, 48-34.
• Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 27, one less than Chattanooga.

So there you have it. The Vols' chances of winning each of the rest of its games, on a scale from 5-30:

• @Georgia: 10
• Florida: 23
• Chattanooga: 28
• @Ole Miss: 10
• Alabama: 8
• @South Carolina: 15
• Kentucky: 23
• Missouri: 18
• Vanderbilt: 27