Tennessee Vols Trending Report: Georgia

Finally. After three straight losses in one-possession games, the Vols put one in the win column Saturday in Knoxville, staring a 24-3 deficit in the face before roaring back to beat the Georgia Bulldogs 38-31. After weeks of gloom, Vols fans got to spend a day in glorious sunshine. Was everything fixed? Of course not. Wins and losses tend to elicit binary responses--especially in the immediate aftermath, it seems that either nothing is working or nothing can stop us. The truth, of course, is usually in the middle. Even after the loss to Arkansas, far and away Tennessee's worst performance of the season (and hopefully still the worst performance of the season come December), there were positives. And even after this win, a lot of the concerns are still there. But a win makes it a lot easier to see positives that were easily swallowed up before. And, as always, the Trending Report is here trying its best to sort through the emotion and tell you where the Vols are improving and where their play is concerning.

TRENDING UP:

• Winning. For the first time this season, the Trending Report made an appearance in Neyland (insofar as an article that's floating around in the author's brain has spatial location) and got to witness the pure joy of a big win that has been absent in Knoxville since October 2013. Winning feels fantastic, and Tennessee fans have been waiting for this one all summer. Enjoy it.

• Finishing Drives. While you're enjoying it, let's zoom in a bit. How did the win happen? What changed from the Florida game to the Georgia game? If you have to pick one thing, it's finishing drives. Two weeks ago, Florida made just four trips inside the Tennessee 40 but scored touchdowns all four times, while the Vols kicked two field goals. And early on against Georgia, it looked like more of the same, as Georgia scored on their first scoring opportunity, and the Vols got just 3 points out of two trips inside the Georgia 5. But from then on, Tennessee won the battle of turning drives into points. In the last 2.9 quarters, Georgia made four trips inside the Tennessee 30. The results? Missed field goal, made field goal, touchdown, clock expired (end of game). If those two field goal attempts turn into touchdowns (as they did against Florida and Oklahoma), the Vols very likely lose in convincing fashion. On the other side of the ball, the Vols made six trips inside Georgia's 40 in the last three quarters. They turned those six trips into five touchdowns (and one punt). The week before against Arkansas, the Vols had just 13 points on five scoring opportunities, for an average of 2.6 points per opportunity. In the first quarter against Georgia, they had 1.5 points per opportunity. In the last three quarters, they had 5.8 points per opportunity. That conversion rate would've beaten Oklahoma, Florida, or Arkansas. Finishing drives will win you football games.

• Playmakers making plays. Let's zoom in once more. How did Tennessee finish drives? By getting plays from its playmakers. Despite the accolades, Josh Dobbs really didn't look impressive throwing the football (more on that later). But his receivers stepped up in a way they hadn't all season, and between that and Dobbs' ability to run, Tennessee scored touchdowns. It started with Dobbs' legs, just as the South Carolina game did last year. He ran for 118 yards and punched it into the end zone twice, a level of production we've seen from him just one other time this season. But unlike last time, he had help from his receivers Saturday. Ethan Wolf extended Tennessee's game-winning drive by hauling in a pass that was slightly behind him and gaining 32 yards. On the same drive, another pass was slightly behind Alex Ellis, but Ellis adjusted and added another 24 yards. The Vols' final scoring drive of the first half got a huge boost from Josh Malone taking a short pass and making defenders miss for 23 yards to set up Dobbs inside the five. And the biggest play of the day came from Josh Smith on a 4th and 9 from the 40 with the Vols down 24-3. The pass was behind him, but Smith adjusted to make an eye-catching, spinning catch and then raced 25 yards to the checkerboards to give Tennessee their first touchdown of the day. Without that play, the comeback probably doesn't happen. In Tennessee's three losses, those plays didn't happen. Dobbs might've made a couple good runs, but either his receivers didn't help him out in the passing game, or his throws were too far off to matter. Saturday, those plays were there. And they extended drives. And they turned into points.

• Coaching like you're behind by three touchdowns. The game changed when Tennessee went for two consecutive fourth downs in the second quarter--a 4th and 4 from the UGA 47 and a 4th and 9 from the UGA 40--and converted them both. Despite statsy folks arguing for years that going for 4th and short-to-medium in opposing territory is generally a good idea, these are not decisions that coaches usually make, and these are certainly not decisions that Butch Jones--oft-criticized for his conservatism--usually makes. It may be the smart decision, but it's not the popular one. As the Vols were lining up for the 4th and 4, Gary Danielson was openly questioning the decision not to punt it away. But down 21 points, Butch Jones made the aggressive call, and more importantly, the right call, and it paid off. And while those plays may be the clearest example of coaching with nothing to lose, they aren't the only example. A passing attack that had been limited almost entirely to dink-and-dunk all season--especially playing with a lead--suddenly found an intermediate passing game. And that paid off too. The Tennessee coaches have been appropriately criticized for the Vols' play with a lead, but they did an excellent job with a deficit. The Vols would be well-served if Jones and offensive coordinator Mike DeBord coached as if they were in a hole for the rest of the season.

• Offensive line depth. By the end of the game Saturday, just two of Tennessee's projected offensive line starters circa August 2015 were in the game. Did anyone notice a dropoff? While the offensive line has struggled for most of the season, the underclassmen are showing signs that better times may be on the horizon. Freshmen Jack Jones and Chance Hall impressed filling in for injured starters Saturday, and with sophomores Coleman Thomas and Jashon Robertson growing into quality players, the core is there for an offensive front that will just keep getting better. Especially if freshman Drew Richmond can live up to his recruiting stars and take the left tackle spot after Kyler Kerbyson graduates.

• Letting the other team make mistakes. The Vols got big enough leads against Oklahoma and Florida to force the opposition to play perfectly in the last ten minutes. But, here's the important part: the Vols then gave their opposition the opportunity to make plays in those last ten minutes. And the opposition obliged. And the opposition won. On Saturday, the Vols gave Georgia the opportunity to make plays and send the game to overtime. And that should temper the "we finally closed it out!" enthusiasm. But the difference at the end was that Georgia didn't finish. They had a receiver behind defender Malik Foreman with a chance to tie the game, and the ball went through his hands. You don't want to have to rely on drops like that to win a game. But after facing a pair of opponents who played perfectly in crunch time, it was nice to get a little help.

• The fans. After appearing totally apathetic in the second half of a one-possession loss last week, Neyland was in it for 60 minutes this week. Sure, it got a bit quieter when Georgia went up 24-3. But the total defeat wasn't there. And when Georgia had a chance to tie it, a fan base that struggles with sitting nervously on their heels let the Bulldogs offense have it. Chris asked for stupid cheering, and by and large, he got it.

• Dobbs-shaped mood swings. Coming into the season, there was Heisman hype. After the loss to Arkansas, there were calls for backup Quinten Dormady. The quarterback position often brings out the most irrational extremes, and this week's performance from Josh Dobbs is no exception. Yes, he was great on the ground. Yes, his production through the air (312 yards, 7.4 yards-per-attempt) was excellent. And his production near the end of the game (127 yards, 10.5 YPA) was even better. But that's not because he finally figured everything out passing the ball. His first touchdown pass was behind the receiver (his second such pass in a row, after Alex Ellis failed to pull down an errant 3rd and 9 pass). On Tennessee's second touchdown drive, they were fortunate to avoid disaster when Dobbs threw into quadruple coverage, overlooking a wide-open Jalen Hurd just past the line of scrimmage. All three passes on the eventual game-winning drive were behind the receivers (twice the receivers made adjustments (see: "playmakers making plays"), and one fell incomplete when Preston Williams couldn't get around in time). Josh Dobbs hasn't turned into an excellent passer. The differences Saturday were that his misses were close enough for receivers to make plays, and that his receivers generally made those plays. Given all he brings on the ground, "close enough for the receivers to make plays" can still make for an excellent all-around performance if the receivers are playing well, and Tennessee can and did win with that kind of performance. But Dobbs isn't going to carry this team on his back. Even on good days, he struggles with accuracy, and he's going to continue to need his receivers to adjust and make plays.