Recalibrating the Vols after the Bye Week
Here's what the Vols' former opponents did this weekend:
- Bowling Green moved to 5-2 (one bad loss to Tennessee and one close loss to now 6-0 (and Top 25!) Memphis) with a 59-10 win over Akron. They've averaged Baylor points in their last two games.
- Oklahoma beat Kansas State 55-0 and moved to 5-1.
- Florida did exactly what we needed them to by looking good against LSU but losing 35-28. They're now 6-1 overall and 4-1 in the SEC.
- Arkansas was off.
- Georgia beat Missouri 9-6.
So the Bye Week made both the Vols' losses and the Vols' wins look better. I don't think I'm going to move anybody anywhere just yet based on all of that, but it did have a way of sort of confirming that we have things in the right place.
Recalibrating the Vols' remaining opponents
So what about Tennessee's future opponents? First, the chart. Details on each are below.
|9||Georgia (W; 38-31)||Alabama|
|14||Oklahoma (L; 31-24 2OT)|
|17||Missouri||Florida||Florida (L; 28-27)|
|19||South Carolina||South Carolina||Arkansas (L; 24-20)|
|24||Vanderbilt||Vanderbilt||Vanderbilit||South Carolina||South Carolina||Vanderbilt||Vanderbilt|
|25||Bowling Green (W; 59-30)||South Carolina|
|26||South Carolina||South Carolina|
|28||North Texas||North Texas||North Texas||North Texas||North Texas|
|29||Western Carolina||Western Carolina||
|North Texas||North Texas||North Texas|
10/24/15: at Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC, #8)
- W1: Beat #20 Wisconsin, 35-17.
- W2: Beat MTSU, 37-10.
- W3: Lost to #15 Ole Miss, 43-37.
- W4: Beat UL Monroe, 34-0.
- W5: Beat Georgia, 38-10.
- W6: Beat Arkansas, 27-14.
- W7: Beat Texas A&M 41-23 on the strength of three pick sixes.
|Sat, Oct 24||vs Tennessee|
|Sat, Nov 7||vs LSU|
|Sat, Nov 14||@ Miss St|
|Sat, Nov 21||vs Charleston So|
|Sat, Nov 28||@ Auburn|
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): You know what? I'm going to go ahead and bump these guys into the 9 spot, right where Georgia was when we beat them. Look, 41-23 is a nice-looking score and all, but if you remove the three pick sixes, Bama loses by three. Yeah, I know you can't just remove stuff you don't want to see, but A&M is a passing team. We're a team built to run the ball and protect it. If memory serves, Josh Dobbs has thrown only one pick all season, and that was a ricochet. Bottom line, Alabama's not getting 21 points on interceptions next week. Still, they are the Crimson Tide, and I'm only moving them one spot. But it's a lucky spot.
|PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA|
10/31/15: at Kentucky (4-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat UL-Lafayette, 40-33.
- W2: Beat South Carolina, 26-22.
- W3: Lost to Florida, 14-9.
- W4: Beat Missouri, 21-13.
- W5: Beat Eastern Kentucky, 34-27 in overtime.
- W6: Off.
- W7: Lost to Auburn, 30-27.
|Sat, Oct 24||@ Miss St|
|Sat, Oct 31||vs Tennessee|
|Sat, Nov 7||@ Georgia|
|Sat, Nov 14||@ Vanderbilt|
|Sat, Nov 21||vs Charlotte|
|Sat, Nov 28||vs Louisville|
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I think we have these guys right where they should be.
|PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY|
11/7/15: South Carolina (3-4, 1-4 SEC, NR)
- W1: Squawked by UNC, 17-13.
- W2: Lost to Kentucky, 26-22.
- W3: Lost to Georgia, 52-20.
- W4: Beat UCF, 31-14.
- W5: Lost to Missouri, 24-10.
- W6: Lost to LSU, 45-24.
- W7: Beat Vandy, 19-10.
|Sat, Oct 31||@ Texas A&M|
|Sat, Nov 7||@ Tennessee|
|Sat, Nov 14||vs Florida|
|Sat, Nov 21||vs The Citadel|
|Sat, Nov 28||vs Clemson|
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Wondering if the coach-is-gone feeling sets in after a trip to A&M on Halloween. Keeping the Gamecocks where they are for now.
|PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA|
11/14/15: North Texas (0-6, 0-3 C-USA, NR)
- W1: DNP.
- W2: Lost to SMU, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Rice, 38-24.
- W4: Lost to Iowa, 62-16.
- W5: Lost to Southern Miss, 49-14.
- W6: Lost to Portland State, 66-7.
- W7: Lost to Western Kentucky, 55-28.
|Sat, Oct 24||@ Marshall|
|Sat, Oct 31||vs UTSA|
|Sat, Nov 7||@ LA Tech|
|Sat, Nov 14||@ #25 Tennessee|
|Sat, Nov 21||@ Mid Tennessee|
|Sat, Nov 28||vs UTEP|
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Hey, they scored 28 points this week.
|PREDICTIONS - NORTH TEXAS|
11/21/15: at Missouri (4-3, 1-3 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat SE Missouri State, 34-3.
- W2: Beat Arkansas State, 27-20.
- W3: Beat UConn, 9-6.
- W4: Lost to Kentucky, 21-13.
- W5: Beat South Carolina, 24-10.
- W6: Lost to Florida, 21-3.
- W7: Lost to Georgia, 9-6.
|Sat, Oct 24||@ Vanderbilt|
|Thu, Nov 5||vs Miss St|
|Sat, Nov 14||vs BYU*|
|Sat, Nov 21||vs Tennessee|
|Fri, Nov 27||@ Arkansas|
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Less afraid of their offense after this week but more afraid of their defense. Status quo, yo.
|PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI|
11/28/15: Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3 SEC, NR)
- W1: Lost to Western Kentucky, 14-12.
- W2: Lost to Georgia, 31-14.
- W3: Beat Austin Peay, 47-7.
- W4: Lost to #3 Ole Miss, 27-16.
- W5: Beat MTSU, 17-13.
- W6: Off
- W7: Lost to South Carolina, 19-10.
|Sat, Oct 24||vs Missouri|
|Sat, Oct 31||@ Houston|
|Sat, Nov 7||@ Florida|
|Sat, Nov 14||vs Kentucky|
|Sat, Nov 21||vs Texas A&M|
|Sat, Nov 28||@ Tennessee|
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Keeping these guys right where they're at.
|PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT|