Recalibrating expectations for the Vols after the bye week

Recalibrating the Vols after the Bye Week

Here's what the Vols' former opponents did this weekend:

• Bowling Green moved to 5-2 (one bad loss to Tennessee and one close loss to now 6-0 (and Top 25!) Memphis) with a 59-10 win over Akron. They've averaged Baylor points in their last two games.
• Oklahoma beat Kansas State 55-0 and moved to 5-1.
• Florida did exactly what we needed them to by looking good against LSU but losing 35-28. They're now 6-1 overall and 4-1 in the SEC.
• Arkansas was off.
• Georgia beat Missouri 9-6.

So the Bye Week made both the Vols' losses and the Vols' wins look better. I don't think I'm going to move anybody anywhere just yet based on all of that, but it did have a way of sort of confirming that we have things in the right place.

Recalibrating the Vols' remaining opponents

So what about Tennessee's future opponents? First, the chart. Details on each are below.

PREDICTIONS
5-30 SCALE	PRESEASON	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
5
6
7		Alabama	Alabama	Georgia	Georgia
8	Alabama			Alabama	Alabama		Alabama
9						Georgia (W; 38-31)		Alabama
10		Georgia
11			Georgia
12	Georgia
13		Arkansas
14		Oklahoma (L; 31-24 2OT)
15	Arkansas	Missouri
16	Oklahoma	Florida	Missouri
17	Missouri		Florida	Florida (L; 28-27)
18			Arkansas	Missouri
19	South Carolina	South Carolina			Arkansas (L; 24-20)
20	Florida				Kentucky
21				Arkansas		Kentucky
22	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky	Vanderbilt	Missouri	Kentucky	Kentucky
23			South Carolina	Vanderbilt	Missouri	Vanderbilt	Missouri	Missouri
24	Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt	Vanderbilit	South Carolina	South Carolina		Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt
25	Bowling Green (W; 59-30)					South Carolina
26							South Carolina	South Carolina
27
28	North Texas	North Texas	North Texas	North Texas	North Texas
29	Western Carolina	Western Carolina	Western Carolina (W; 55-10)			North Texas	North Texas	North Texas
30

10/24/15: at Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC, #8)

• W1: Beat #20 Wisconsin, 35-17.
• W2: Beat MTSU, 37-10.
• W3: Lost to #15 Ole Miss, 43-37.
• W4: Beat UL Monroe, 34-0.
• W5: Beat Georgia, 38-10.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 27-14.
• W7: Beat Texas A&M 41-23 on the strength of three pick sixes.

Sat, Oct 24	vs Tennessee
Sat, Nov 7	vs LSU
Sat, Nov 14	@ Miss St
Sat, Nov 21	vs Charleston So
Sat, Nov 28	@ Auburn

Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): You know what? I'm going to go ahead and bump these guys into the 9 spot, right where Georgia was when we beat them. Look, 41-23 is a nice-looking score and all, but if you remove the three pick sixes, Bama loses by three. Yeah, I know you can't just remove stuff you don't want to see, but A&M is a passing team. We're a team built to run the ball and protect it. If memory serves, Josh Dobbs has thrown only one pick all season, and that was a ricochet. Bottom line, Alabama's not getting 21 points on interceptions next week. Still, they are the Crimson Tide, and I'm only moving them one spot. But it's a lucky spot.

PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA
Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
8	7	7	8	8	7	8	9

10/31/15: at Kentucky (4-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat UL-Lafayette, 40-33.
• W2: Beat South Carolina, 26-22.
• W3: Lost to Florida, 14-9.
• W4: Beat Missouri, 21-13.
• W5: Beat Eastern Kentucky, 34-27 in overtime.
• W6: Off.
• W7: Lost to Auburn, 30-27.

Sat, Oct 24	@ Miss St
Sat, Oct 31	vs Tennessee
Sat, Nov 7	@ Georgia
Sat, Nov 14	@ Vanderbilt
Sat, Nov 21	vs Charlotte
Sat, Nov 28	vs Louisville

Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I think we have these guys right where they should be.

PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY
Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
22	22	22	22	20	21	22	22

11/7/15: South Carolina (3-4, 1-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Squawked by UNC, 17-13.
• W2: Lost to Kentucky, 26-22.
• W3: Lost to Georgia, 52-20.
• W4: Beat UCF, 31-14.
• W5: Lost to Missouri, 24-10.
• W6: Lost to LSU, 45-24.
• W7: Beat Vandy, 19-10.

Sat, Oct 31	@ Texas A&M
Sat, Nov 7	@ Tennessee
Sat, Nov 14	vs Florida
Sat, Nov 21	vs The Citadel
Sat, Nov 28	vs Clemson

Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Wondering if the coach-is-gone feeling sets in after a trip to A&M on Halloween. Keeping the Gamecocks where they are for now.

PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA
Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
19	19	23	24	24	25	26	26

11/14/15: North Texas (0-6, 0-3 C-USA, NR)

• W1: DNP.
• W2: Lost to SMU, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Rice, 38-24.
• W4: Lost to Iowa, 62-16.
• W5: Lost to Southern Miss, 49-14.
• W6: Lost to Portland State, 66-7.
• W7: Lost to Western Kentucky, 55-28.

Sat, Oct 24	@ Marshall
Sat, Oct 31	vs UTSA
Sat, Nov 7	@ LA Tech
Sat, Nov 14	@ #25 Tennessee
Sat, Nov 21	@ Mid Tennessee
Sat, Nov 28	vs UTEP

Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Hey, they scored 28 points this week.

PREDICTIONS - NORTH TEXAS
Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
28	28	28	28	28	29	29	29

11/21/15: at Missouri (4-3, 1-3 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat SE Missouri State, 34-3.
• W2: Beat Arkansas State, 27-20.
• W3: Beat UConn, 9-6.
• W4: Lost to Kentucky, 21-13.
• W5: Beat South Carolina, 24-10.
• W6: Lost to Florida, 21-3.
• W7: Lost to Georgia, 9-6.

Sat, Oct 24	@ Vanderbilt
Thu, Nov 5	vs Miss St
Sat, Nov 14	vs BYU*
Sat, Nov 21	vs Tennessee
Fri, Nov 27	@ Arkansas

Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Less afraid of their offense after this week but more afraid of their defense. Status quo, yo.

PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI
Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
17	15	16	18	23	22	23	23

11/28/15: Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3 SEC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Western Kentucky, 14-12.
• W2: Lost to Georgia, 31-14.
• W3: Beat Austin Peay, 47-7.
• W4: Lost to #3 Ole Miss, 27-16.
• W5: Beat MTSU, 17-13.
• W6: Off
• W7: Lost to South Carolina, 19-10.

Sat, Oct 24	vs Missouri
Sat, Oct 31	@ Houston
Sat, Nov 7	@ Florida
Sat, Nov 14	vs Kentucky
Sat, Nov 21	vs Texas A&M
Sat, Nov 28	@ Tennessee

Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Keeping these guys right where they're at.

PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT
Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
24	24	24	23	22	23	24	24