Recalibrating the Vols after the Western Carolina game
Since losing to the Vols but making them look bad on defense, Bowling Green has beaten Maryland 48-27 and barely lost to Memphis, 44-41. They are first in the nation in passing offense and second in total offense. After besting the Vols in double overtime, Oklahoma beat Tulsa 52-38, and QB Baker Mayfield not only continued to be slippery but started being especially productive. He set a school record (at Oklahoma, mind you) with 572 total yards, and he threw for four touchdowns and ran for another two.
Meanwhile, the Vols did what they were supposed to do against an outmatched Western Carolina team. I'm still a little concerned about the offense in SEC play, but it appears that the defense is battle-tested. I'm not adjusting expectations for Tennessee either upwards or downwards based on anything that happened to the Vols or to their past opponents this weekend.
Recalibrating the Vols' remaining opponents
What happened to Tennessee's future opponents this weekend, though, is a different story. First, the chart. Details on each are below.
| PREDICTIONS |
| 5-30 SCALE |
PRESEASON |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 5 |
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
|
Alabama |
Alabama |
Georgia |
| 8 |
Alabama |
|
|
Alabama |
| 9 |
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
|
Georgia |
|
|
| 11 |
|
|
Georgia |
|
| 12 |
Georgia |
|
|
|
| 13 |
|
Arkansas |
|
|
| 14 |
|
Oklahoma (L; 31-24 2OT) |
|
|
| 15 |
Arkansas |
Missouri |
|
|
| 16 |
Oklahoma |
Florida |
Missouri |
|
| 17 |
Missouri |
|
Florida |
Florida |
| 18 |
|
|
Arkansas |
Missouri |
| 19 |
South Carolina |
South Carolina |
|
|
| 20 |
Florida |
|
|
|
| 21 |
|
|
|
Arkansas |
| 22 |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
| 23 |
|
|
South Carolina |
Vanderbilt |
| 24 |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilit |
South Carolina |
| 25 |
Bowling Green (W; 59-30) |
|
|
|
| 26 |
|
|
|
|
| 27 |
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
North Texas |
North Texas |
North Texas |
North Texas |
| 29 |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina (W; 55-10) |
|
| 30 |
|
|
|
|
9/26/15: at Florida (3-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat New Mexico State, 61-13.
- W2: Beat East Carolina, 31-24.
- W3: Beat Kentucky, 14-9.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs Ole Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ LSU |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Georgia* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs FAU |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs FSU |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): If the score of the Florida-Kentucky game makes you feel better about the Vols' matchup with the Gators this week, I have the cure. The first paragraph from ESPN's game recap: "Every time Kentucky's pressure seemed to have Will Grier within reach, the Florida quarterback scrambled away to run for crucial yards including the Gators' first touchdown." Sounds a little too familiar, right? The Gators are a three-point favorite, and until we exorcise our scaly demons, I can't get un-wary of this game. I'm leaving them at 17. It's another Coin Flip game for Butch Jones. Will this one go his way?
| PREDICTIONS - FLORIDA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 20 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
10/3/15: Arkansas (1-2, 0-0 SEC, NR)
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Texas A&M* |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UT Martin |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Ole Miss |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ LSU |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Miss St |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
vs Missouri |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Lost to Toledo two weeks ago. Lost to unranked Texas Tech this week. Will likely lose to Texas A&M next week. Will travel to Knoxville the following week. I'm still a little sorta kinda terrified of the Hogs' preseason reputation of power, but this is helping. I'm moving them up to 21. They're now no longer grouped with Florida and Missouri in the Coin Flip category. I'm not really saying it's a "should win" game, but it's sneaking up on "probably should win."
| PREDICTIONS - ARKANSAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 15 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
10/10/15: Georgia (2-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)
- W1: Beat UL Monroe, 51-14 before the game was called due to a second lightning delay.
- W2: Beat Vanderbilt, 31-14.
- W3: Beat South Carolina, 52-20.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Southern |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Florida* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Auburn |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Ga Southern |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Georgia Tech |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Well, shoot. They've learned how to pass. That QB who couldn't hit air last week just knocked our own Tee Martin out of the shared top spot in the record books by doing him just one measley completion better, hitting 24 of 25 pass attempts. And they still have Nick Chubb. And they've discovered Sony Michel and Keith Marshall. And Malcolm Mitchell. These guys are going to be tough. With Alabama's loss to Ole Miss, I'm giving Georgia the nod for toughest game and putting them at 7.
| PREDICTIONS - GEORGIA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 12 |
10 |
11 |
7 |
10/17/15: Bye
10/24/15: at Alabama (2-1, 0-1 SEC, #12)
- W1: Beat #20 Wisconsin, 35-17.
- W2: Beat MTSU, 37-10.
- W3: Lost to #15 Ole Miss, 43-37.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs UL Monroe |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Arkansas |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs LSU |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charleston So |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Auburn |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Ole Miss had its way with these guys for much of the game, but 'Bama being 'Bama, they nearly came back to give themselves a shot to win it with their last drive. Oddly, them losing this one somehow almost makes me feel worse about getting a win against them. It's like they've already lost their one for the year or something. On the other hand, it can be done, so . . . I'm moving them one spot up, back to 8, where I had them at the beginning of the season. Basically, I just needed to make room for Georgia.
| PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
10/31/15: at Kentucky (2-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat UL-Lafayette, 40-33.
- W2: Beat South Carolina, 26-22.
- W3: Lost to Florida, 14-9.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs E Kentucky |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Georgia |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charlotte |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs Louisville |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Leaving these guys right where they're at, at 22.
| PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
11/7/15: South Carolina (1-2, 0-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Squawked by UNC, 17-13.
- W2: Lost to Kentucky, 26-22.
- W3: Lost to Georgia, 52-20.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs UCF |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs LSU |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs The Citadel |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs Clemson |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): These guys look like a 98.6 degree puddle of mess. Sure, Georgia may end up doing that to a lot of people this year, but 52-20? After last week's loss to Kentucky, I moved them up to 23. This week, I'm moving them up one more to 24 and doing them the dishonor of making them switch chairs with Vanderbilt.
| PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 19 |
19 |
23 |
24 |
11/14/15: North Texas (0-2, 0-1 C-USA, NR)
- W1: DNP.
- W2: Lost to SMU, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Rice, 38-24.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Iowa |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Southern Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Portland State |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs W Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Marshall |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UTSA |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ LA Tech |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs UTEP |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'm not even going to bother looking this one up. No change. 28.
| PREDICTIONS - NORTH TEXAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
11/21/15: at Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #25)
- W1: Beat SE Missouri State, 34-3.
- W2: Beat Arkansas State, 27-20.
- W3: Beat UConn, 9-6.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Thu, Nov 5 |
vs Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs BYU* |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Tennessee |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
@ Arkansas |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): 9-6 over UConn, really? This one was apparently so embarrassing that the ESPN game recap page has unilaterally decided to show highlights from the Duke-Northwestern game instead. Fortunately, the text is still there and clues us in to the fact that Missouri needed an interception on a fourth-down fake field goal attempt by UConn to preserve the 9-6 victory. I'm moving Missouri from 16 to 18 and swapping them with Florida. 9-6. Sheesh.
| PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 17 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
11/28/15: Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Lost to Western Kentucky, 14-12.
- W2: Lost to Georgia, 31-14.
- W3: Beat Austin Peay, 47-7.
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Ole Miss |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Houston |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Florida |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Tennessee |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Well, good for you. I'm moving you to 23, but it's because South Carolina deserves the humiliation, not because you deserve to move a spot.
| PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
| 24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
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