Recalibrating the Vols after the Florida game
This weekend, Bowling Green improved to 2-2 with a win over Purdue and has now beaten two power conference teams in three weeks. Oklahoma and Western Carolina were both off. Not that we're going to learn much from watching Western Carolina the rest of the season.
Meanwhile, Tennessee had rival Florida on the ropes, pinned to the mat, dead to rights . . . and let another almost certain victory get away. What does that mean about the Vols going forward? That they can win such games if only they don't lose them in the final minutes. They have the talent to play well for most of the game, but need to adjust the mindset. When the coin flip keeps coming up skull-and-crossbones, you should play in a way that makes the flipping coin flip unnecessary. I still have faith that this team can achieve its goals for the season, but they'd be well-advised to remove luck from the equation and to ignore all analytics that rely on odds for the time being. The odds are never in our favor.
Bottom line, I'm declaring coin flips poisonous until we get immunized. Fortunately, it's looking like we're mostly done with 50-50 games, and that we should have the advantage for much of the rest of the way. And oddly, I'd be more afraid of another coin flip than I am of true underdog games against Georgia and Alabama. So there's that.
Recalibrating the Vols' remaining opponents
So what about Tennessee's future opponents? First, the chart. Details on each are below.
| PREDICTIONS |
| 5-30 SCALE |
PRESEASON |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
|
Alabama |
Alabama |
Georgia |
Georgia |
| 8 |
Alabama |
|
|
Alabama |
Alabama |
| 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
|
Georgia |
|
|
|
| 11 |
|
|
Georgia |
|
|
| 12 |
Georgia |
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
|
Arkansas |
|
|
|
| 14 |
|
Oklahoma (L; 31-24 2OT) |
|
|
|
| 15 |
Arkansas |
Missouri |
|
|
|
| 16 |
Oklahoma |
Florida |
Missouri |
|
|
| 17 |
Missouri |
|
Florida |
Florida (L; 28-27) |
|
| 18 |
|
|
Arkansas |
Missouri |
|
| 19 |
South Carolina |
South Carolina |
|
|
Arkansas |
| 20 |
Florida |
|
|
|
Kentucky |
| 21 |
|
|
|
Arkansas |
|
| 22 |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Vanderbilt |
| 23 |
|
|
South Carolina |
Vanderbilt |
Missouri |
| 24 |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilit |
South Carolina |
South Carolina |
| 25 |
Bowling Green (W; 59-30) |
|
|
|
|
| 26 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 27 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
North Texas |
North Texas |
North Texas |
North Texas |
North Texas |
| 29 |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina (W; 55-10) |
|
|
| 30 |
|
|
|
|
|
10/3/15: Arkansas (1-3, 0-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat UTEP, 48-13.
- W2: Lost to . . . Holy Toledo, 16-12.
- W3: Lost to Texas Tech, 35-24.
- W4: Gave up a 4th-quarter lead and lost in overtime to #14 Texas A&M, 28-21.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UT Martin |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Ole Miss |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ LSU |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Miss St |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
vs Missouri |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): First, note that these guys gave up a lead late in the fourth and went to overtime and lost. Then acknowledge what we've done in the fourth quarter two of the last three games. Then forget both of those things. Then remember Arkansas' losses to Toledo and Texas Tech. Then note that Texas Tech almost got TCU this week. Then, if you watched the Razorbacks game, remember the horror of that huge offensive line and that truck of a back running through the A&M defense and eating yards and time like Joey Chestnut eats hot dogs. Based on all of that, I'm moving these guys up the chart two spots to 19, dangerously close to Coin Flip Land. Fortunately, it's only the suburbs, and at this point, I'm thinking we get this one. Gulp.
| PREDICTIONS - ARKANSAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 15 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
10/10/15: Georgia (4-0, 2-0 SEC, #8)
- W1: Beat UL Monroe, 51-14 before the game was called due to a second lightning delay.
- W2: Beat Vanderbilt, 31-14.
- W3: Beat South Carolina, 52-20.
- W4: Beat Southern, 48-6.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Florida* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Auburn |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Ga Southern |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Georgia Tech |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): The game against Southern doesn't tell you much about the Bulldogs football team, but this does say something about Mark Richt. I'm leaving the Dogs at 7.
| PREDICTIONS - GEORGIA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 12 |
10 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
10/17/15: Bye
10/24/15: at Alabama (3-1, 0-1 SEC, #13)
- W1: Beat #20 Wisconsin, 35-17.
- W2: Beat MTSU, 37-10.
- W3: Lost to #15 Ole Miss, 43-37.
- W4: Beat UL Monroe, 34-0.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Arkansas |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs LSU |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charleston So |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Auburn |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Not much to see here. Leaving the Tide at 8.
| PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
10/31/15: at Kentucky (3-1, 2-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat UL-Lafayette, 40-33.
- W2: Beat South Carolina, 26-22.
- W3: Lost to Florida, 14-9.
- W4: Beat Missouri, 21-13.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs E Kentucky |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Georgia |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charlotte |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs Louisville |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'm moving the Wildcats up the chart two spots to 20, although I'm not sure yet whether they're that good or Missouri's that bad. It's probably a bit of both.
| PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
11/7/15: South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Squawked by UNC, 17-13.
- W2: Lost to Kentucky, 26-22.
- W3: Lost to Georgia, 52-20.
- W4: Beat UCF, 31-14.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs LSU |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs The Citadel |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs Clemson |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): UCF is not very good. I'm leaving the Gamecocks where they are, at 24.
| PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 19 |
19 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
11/14/15: North Texas (0-3, 0-1 C-USA, NR)
- W1: DNP.
- W2: Lost to SMU, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Rice, 38-24.
- W4: Lost to Iowa, 62-16.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Southern Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Portland State |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs W Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Marshall |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UTSA |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ LA Tech |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs UTEP |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Huge loss to the team we clobbered in the TaxSlayer Bowl. No change. 28.
| PREDICTIONS - NORTH TEXAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
11/21/15: at Missouri (3-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat SE Missouri State, 34-3.
- W2: Beat Arkansas State, 27-20.
- W3: Beat UConn, 9-6.
- W4: Lost to Kentucky, 21-13.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Thu, Nov 5 |
vs Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs BYU* |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Tennessee |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
@ Arkansas |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): That question I posed up there about whether Kentucky was good or Missouri was bad? Looking at the Tigers' resume, it's looking like a lean toward the latter. I'm dropping Missouri all the way down to 23, and they're joining the Gamecocks in the Circle of the Dishonor of Being Below Vanderbilt.
| PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 17 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
11/28/15: Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Lost to Western Kentucky, 14-12.
- W2: Lost to Georgia, 31-14.
- W3: Beat Austin Peay, 47-7.
- W4: Lost to #3 Ole Miss, 27-16.
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Houston |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Florida |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Tennessee |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Huh. What do we do with this? Losing by only 11 to the team that just beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa? Chalk it up as a fluke, is what we do. But we're giving them a one-spot bump to 22, too, to make room for Missouri.
| PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
W3 |
W4 |
| 24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
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