So now we have at least a little data to inform our wild guesses as to the outcomes of the rest of the Vols games. Before we look at what the future opponents did this week, let's recalibrate the Vols a bit.
I said on our podcast last week that first games are only a little better than spring scrimmages in telling you anything about your team, and in trying to unravel what happened in Nashville, I keep emphasizing that point to myself. Until opponents start playing other teams that have played other teams, you don't really know anything. Is our offense unstoppable? Has our defensive line forgotten how to rush the passer? Are our cornerbacks in real trouble the rest of the way? Or is Bowling Green's defense horrible and its offense poised for a terrific season? I'm guessing that our offense isn't nearly as good as they looked Saturday in Nashville, and I'm both guessing and hoping that components of our defense aren't as bad as they looked. Go Falcons.
Still, saying that the Falcons are better on offense and worse on defense than we thought are both guesses themselves, so we have to acknowledge that passing defense could be a very real concern going forward. For that reason, I'm recalibrating everything down a bit based on the Vols' performance this week. I'm starting by moving all of the Coin Flip games down two spots, along with the Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida games. Alabama's dropping only one spot because it's pretty close to the bottom already anyway. South Carolina got moved back up due to their own performance this week. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Here's this week's chart. Details and shaky rationales follow below.
| PREDICTIONS |
| 5-30 SCALE |
PRESEASON |
W1 |
| 5 |
|
|
| 6 |
|
|
| 7 |
|
Alabama |
| 8 |
Alabama |
|
| 9 |
|
|
| 10 |
|
Georgia |
| 11 |
|
|
| 12 |
Georgia |
|
| 13 |
|
Arkansas |
| 14 |
|
Oklahoma |
| 15 |
Arkansas |
Missouri |
| 16 |
Oklahoma |
Florida |
| 17 |
Missouri |
|
| 18 |
|
|
| 19 |
South Carolina |
South Carolina |
| 20 |
Florida |
|
| 21 |
|
|
| 22 |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
| 23 |
|
|
| 24 |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilt |
| 25 |
Bowling Green (W; 59-30) |
|
| 26 |
|
|
| 27 |
|
|
| 28 |
North Texas |
North Texas |
| 29 |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina |
| 30 |
|
|
9/12/15: Oklahoma (1-0, 0-0 Big 12, #19)
- W1: Beat Akron, 41-3. For what it's worth, we beat the Zips 47-26 in 2012. The relevant keywords for that time period are "Derek Dooley," "Tyler Bray," and "Sal Sunseri."
| Sat, Sept 12 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Tulsa |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs West Virginia |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Texas* |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Kansas State |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Texas Tech |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Kansas |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Iowa State |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #4 Baylor |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs #2 TCU |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ Oklahoma State |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Let's take a wild stab in the dark here and posit that the new Oklahoma Air Raid offense is as good right now in its infancy as whatever that frightening thing was we just saw in Nashville against Bowling Green. Then let's say that the Sooners defense is, you know, like a regular good defense as opposed to whatever that glorious thing we just saw in Nashville against Bowling Green. So they get about the same number of points as the Falcons did, maybe a few more, and we don't score as many. Which makes it about an even game. Which is another way of saying what we said last week: Coin flip. Adjust for the secondary (probably double-dipping on this, but hey), and we're down to 14. Go Vols.
| PREDICTIONS - OKLAHOMA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 16 |
14 |
9/19/15: Western Carolina (1-0, 0-0 Southern, NR)
- W1: Beat Mars Hill, 41-14.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
@ The Citadel |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs Presbyterian |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Mercer |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Wofford |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Samford |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Chattanooga |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Furman |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
@ VMI |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): If the only way for me to have an informed opinion about your last game is to look up your opponent on Wikipedia, you get no points for it. Still a 29 for you, Catamounts.
| PREDICTIONS - WESTERN CAROLINA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 29 |
29 |
9/26/15: at Florida (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat New Mexico State, 61-13.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
vs ECU |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
@ Kentucky |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ #14 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs #9 Georgia* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs FAU |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs #10 FSU |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Well this was disappointing. I was really hoping to see Florida struggle out of the gate with a new coaching staff, but no. Sure, it's New Mexico State, which the longer I look at it, the more I think I need to independently confirm that it is actually a state. Does anything really happen between Texas and Arizona? I don't think so. Still, 61 points for a recently revived offense mostly dead of Will Muschamp Disease is discouraging for those wanting to bury the thing in a shallow grave under cover of night. Boo. I'm changing you to Coin Flip and giving you an 16. I liked you better before you played.
| PREDICTIONS - FLORIDA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 20 |
16 |
10/3/15: Arkansas (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #18)
| Sat, Sept 12 |
vs Toledo* |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Texas Tech |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Texas A&M* |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ #3 Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs #6 Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UT Martin |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #14 LSU |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Miss St |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
vs #24 Missouri |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): This was mildly disturbing as well, but mostly in a, "Yep, they're going to be tough, and oh great, they've learned how to pass, too" way. I'm more worried about this one than I was, but it's primarily due to the flashbacks of seeing new cornerbacks chasing taller receivers from behind. 13.
| PREDICTIONS - ARKANSAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 15 |
13 |
10/10/15: Georgia (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #9)
W1: Beat UL Monroe, 51-14 before the game was called due to a second lightning delay.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs South Carolina |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Southern |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs #3 Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Florida* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #6 Auburn |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Ga Southern |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ #16 Georgia Tech |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): About what I thought they were. Moving to 10 due to secondary concerns.
| PREDICTIONS - GEORGIA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 12 |
10 |
10/17/15: Bye
10/24/15: at Alabama (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #3)
W1: Beat #20 Wisconsin, 35-17.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
vs Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs UL Monroe |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs #18 Arkansas |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs #14 LSU |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charleston So |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ #6 Auburn |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Again, not a huge surprise here, but the Tide do get points for beating a real team and doing so fairly comfortably. I'm moving them down only one to seven because we're already pretty close to "Not going to happen" territory anyway.
| PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 8 |
7 |
10/31/15: at Kentucky (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)
W1: Beat UL-Lafayette, 40-33.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs E Kentucky |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs #6 Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charlotte |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs Louisville |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Even for a program commonly abbreviated "You'll Laugh," and which shares a logo with Chili's, this has to be really disconcerting for Kentucky fans. I'm totally ignoring our secondary problems and keeping these guys right where they were last week at 22.
| PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 22 |
22 |
11/7/15: South Carolina (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)
W1: Squawked by UNC, 17-13.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs UCF |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs #14 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs The Citadel |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs #12 Clemson |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Much too close for the Gamecocks, so again, I'm keeping them right where I had them. 19.
| PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 19 |
19 |
11/14/15: North Texas (0-0, 0-0 C-USA, NR)
| Sat, Sept 12 |
@ SMU |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Rice |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Iowa |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Southern Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Portland State |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs W Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Marshall |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UTSA |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ LA Tech |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs UTEP |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Points to the Mean Green for opening the season with a Bye. I admire your innovation, sir, but your reward is remaining at 28.
| PREDICTIONS - NORTH TEXAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 28 |
28 |
11/21/15: at Missouri (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #24)
- W1: Beat SE Missouri State, 34-3.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
@ Arkansas State |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs UConn |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Thu, Nov 5 |
vs Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs BYU* |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
@ #18 Arkansas |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Invoking the Wikipedia rule and giving them no points for playing. Moving them down two for our secondary concerns. 15.
| PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 17 |
15 |
11/28/15: Vanderbilt (0-1, 0-0 SEC, NR)
- W1: Lost to Western Kentucky, 14-12.
| Sat, Sept 12 |
vs #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Austin Peay |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Houston |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Florida |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Question. Does one need a secondary against Vanderbilt? No? Okay, then. Still 24.
| PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT |
| Preseason |
W1 |
| 24 |
24 |
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