Tennessee Volunteer Football

Recalibrating expectations for the Vols after Georgia

We’re all feeling good about the Vols this morning, but how confident are we the rest of the way?

By Joel Hollingsworth Oct 3, 2016, 10:00am EDT

How do you write a post about what to expect from a team that consistently achieves expected results in wholly unexpected ways? Pretend you know exactly what's going on.

Explanations are below, but here's the updated chart for this week:

PREDICTIONS
5-30 SCALE	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6
5
6		Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
7
8					Alabama
9						Alabama
10		Georgia
11	Alabama
12	Georgia
13			Texas A&M	Texas A&M
14			Georgia	Florida (W; 38-28)	Texas A&M
15	Texas A&M	Texas A&M		Georgia		Texas A&M
16
17	Florida				Georgia (W; 34-31)
18			Florida
19	Missouri			Missouri	Missouri
20	South Carolina	Florida
21	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech (W; 45-24)		South Carolina
22				Kentucky		Missouri
23		South Carolina	Missouri	Vanderbilt	Kentucky	Vanderbilt
24	Kentucky	Vanderbilt	South Carolina		South Carolina	Kentucky
25	Appalachian State (W; 20-13 (OT))	Missouri	Vanderbilt		Vanderbilt	South Carolina
26	Vanderbilt	Kentucky	Kentucky
27
28	Ohio	Ohio	Ohio (W; 28-19)
29	Tennessee Tech	Tennessee Tech	Tennessee Tech	Tennessee Tech	Tennessee Tech	Tennessee Tech
30

Recalibrating the Vols after Florida

Well, it's an odd week to recalibrate Tennessee. On one hand, this whole spotting the opponent an entire half thing really feels like it's going to bite them in the butt at some point. On the other hand, when this team wakes up and gets rolling, it seems like they can almost do no wrong. And that mysterious fate thing that rode shotgun with us in the '98 season seems to have gotten a little nostalgic and come home. Let's hope he's on a binger. And if Jauan Jennings wants the ball, Jauan Jennings is getting the ball.

So based on the feeling after five games that we still haven't seen this team at its peak performance, I'm adjusting everything toward the hope side of the continuum. But not too much.

Recalibrating the Vols based on new results from past opponents

You can't read too much into this considering the opponents' opponents, but everybody either won or rested this week.

Appalachian State (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt, NR)

W1: Lost to Tennessee in OT, 20-13.
W2: Beat Old Dominion, 31-7.
W3: Lost to #25 Miami, 45-10.
W4: Beat Akron, 45-38.
W5: Beat Georgia State, 17-3.

The Mountaineers are doing what they're supposed to.

Virginia Tech (3-1, 1-0 ACC, NR)

W1: Beat Liberty, 36-13.
W2: Lost to Tennessee, 45-24.
W3: Beat Boston College, 49-0.
W4: Destroyed East Carolina, 54-17.
W5: Bye.

Ohio (3-2, 1-0 MAC, NR)

W1: Lost in 3OT to Texas State, 56-54.
W2: Beat Kansas, 37-21.
W3: Lost to Tennessee, 28-19.
W4: Beat Gardner-Webb, 37-21.
W5: Ohio (not Miami) beat Miami (Ohio), 17-7. :-)

Not much to see here, but the Bobcats have taken care of business since losing to the Vols.

Florida (4-1, 2-1 SEC, #18)

W1: Beat UMass, 24-7.
W2: Trounced Kentucky, 45-7.
W3: Beat North Texas, 32-0.
W4: Lost to Tennessee, 38-28.
W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 13-6.

Jim McElwain compared this game to an ugly baby, which, well okay. The Gators still only have one loss in the SEC, but them looking bad provides hope that someone else may give us some cushion there in case we need it. They have LSU this week and still have to play Arkansas, who's looking pretty good as well.

10/1/16: Georgia (3-2, 1-2 SEC)

W1: Beat North Carolina, 33-24.
W2: Barely beat Nicholls, 26-24.
W3: Came back late to squeak out a win against Missouri, 28-27.
W4: Lost to Ole Miss 45-14.
W5: Lost to Tennessee, 34-31.

Recalibrating the Vols' future opponents

10/8/16: Texas A&M (5-0, 3-0 SEC, #8)

W1: Beat #16 UCLA in OT, 31-24.
W2: Beat Prairie View A&M, 67-0.
W3: Beat Auburn, 29-16.
W4: Beat Arkansas, 45-24.
W5: Beat South Carolina, 24-13.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Both teams were playing without multiple key players, so it's hard to read too much into this game. It was a ho-hum game against Will Muschamp's team, but I'm only moving this game down one spot because GO VOLS.

PREDICTIONS - TEXAS A&M
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
15	15	13	13	14	15

10/15/16: Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC, #1)

W1: Clobbered #20 USC, 52-6.
W2: Beat Western Kentucky, 38-10.
W3: Beat Ole Miss, 48-43.
W4: Beat Kent State, 48-0.
W5: Beat Kentucky, 34-6.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Nothing new from these guys. A week full of distractions and sleep-walking through much of the first half had almost no impact. Moving the game down one for the GO VOLS bump.

PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
11	6	6	6	8	9

10/29/16: South Carolina (2-3, 1-3 SEC, NR)

W1: Beat Vanderbilt, 13-10.
W2: Lost to Mississippi State, 27-14.
W3: Survived East Carolina, 20-15.
W4: Lost to Kentucky, 17-10.
W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-13.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Eh, losing to a good Texas A&M team without a bunch of your key players is nothing to be ashamed of. Having Will Muschamp as your coach, though, is a different question. Ba dump bump. But I already punished them for losing to Kentucky, so they're only getting the one spot GO VOLS bump this week.

PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
23	23	24	21	24	25

11/5/16: Tennessee Tech (2-3, 2-1 OVC, NR)

W1: Lost to Wofford, 21-7.
W2: Beat Austin Peay, 41-7.
W3: Lost to Mercer, 34-27.
W4: Lost to UT Martin, 44-23.
W5: Beat Eastern Kentucky, 33-30 in OT.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'd bump them the one GO VOLS spot, but they already have a toe across the NEVER line, so they're staying put.

PREDICTIONS - TENNESSEE TECH
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
29	29	29	29	29	29

11/12/16: Kentucky (2-3, 1-2 SEC, NR)

W1: Collapsed and lost to Southern Miss, 44-35.
W2: Lost to Florida, 45-7.
W3: Beat New Mexico State, 62-42.
W4: Beat South Carolina, 17-10.
W5: Lost to Alabama, 34-6.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Hey, it was Alabama vs Kentucky. One GO VOLS bump.

PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
24	26	27	22	23	24

11/19/16: Missouri (2-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)

W1: Lost to West Virginia, 26-11.
W2: Beat Eastern Michigan, 61-21.
W3: Lost to Georgia, 28-27.
W4: Beat Delaware State, 79-0.
W5: Lost to LSU, 42-7.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Ah, some breathing room against the sneaky ones. IT'S A GREAT DAY FOR TIGAH FOOTBAW. I'm docking Missouri the one GO VOLS point and also taking back some of the sneaky points they accumulated over the prior weeks. 22.

PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
19	25	23	19	19	22

11/26/16: Vanderbilt (2-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)

W1: Lost to South Carolina, 13-10.
W2: Beat MTSU, 47-24.
W3: Lost to Georgia Tech, 38-7.
W4: Beat Western Kentucky, 31-30 in overtime.
W5: Lost to Florida, 13-6.

Expectations for a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Hey, that's not a bad showing for Vandy. I may even be inclined to zero out their GO VOLS point, but it's crowded there with South Carolina and Kentucky, so I'm going to put them at the head of the kids in detention. 23.

PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT
W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6
26	24	25	23	25	23