Tennessee Vols vs. Kentucky Wildcats statsy preview

The Vols host the Kentucky Wildcats at noon in Neyland Stadium this Saturday with a trip to Atlanta still in play. Kentucky's loss to Georgia last week took a bit of the shine off this one, but it's still one of the most important games between these two teams we have seen in some time. Here are the keys to Tennessee taking one more step toward the SEC Championship Game.

Lean on the run, but use its advantage in balance. When you look at the Tennessee comps in the second table below, you'll see that Kentucky ranks as the worst rushing defense that Tennessee has played this year. Before you get too excited about that, though, note that the next best rushing defense the Vols have played is South Carolina, and Tennessee only put up 136 on the Gamecocks and lost. But if you're inclined to write off the SC game as an anomaly, I'll sit with you in that boat for now. So the Vols should be able to run the ball well this Saturday.

Tennessee should make the most of its passing game, too though. As bad as Kentucky is against the run, they are also not especially good at defending the pass. Texas A&M is the next worst passing defense team that Tennessee has played, and Appalachian State is the next best. The results against those teams were mixed (402 against A&M and 198 against App State), but even if you just average those two results out, it's still an opportunity for a good day through the air for the Vols. So the Tennessee offense should make the most of its advantage running the ball, but should also be able to be balanced enough to keep the Kentucky defense from overcommitting to the run game.

Commit to limiting the Wildcats' rushing yards. If Kentucky has success on offense in this game, it is almost certainly going to come on the ground. They're averaging 216 yards on the ground per game, which is somewhere between what Ohio and App State are currently averaging. Ohio turned out not to be a problem for the Vols, but the Mountaineers gave them fits and put up 184. The good news is that the Wildcats appear to be one-dimensional, so Tennessee should be able to commit more of its defense to mitigating the damage in the run game.

Focus. This has been a key all year. When the team is locked in, they're really good, and when they're not, they are extremely vulnerable. Which team will we see Saturday at noon? Who knows? We may see both. But if they keep their minds right for enough of the game, they should be able to get it done and keep trucking on the road to Atlanta.

Tennessee 35, Kentucky 23.

-------------------------------------

The tables for this week are below. But as always, a quick note on strength of schedule first. The Vols still hold the nation's most-difficult schedule, while Kentucky's is ranked 61st. The Wildcats' opponents to date have S&P+ rankings of #75, #15, #123, #86, #2, #90, #60, #58, and #70. Tennessee's are #26, #17, #91, #15, #70, #20, #2, #86, and an FCS opponent. All of that means that the first comps table is "stronger" than the second. Handy look at the relative strength of schedules:

Vols	Wildcats
2 (Alabama: L; 49-10)	2 (Alabama: L; 34-6)
15 (Florida: W; 38-28)	15 (Florida: L; 45-7)
17
20 (Texas A&M: L; 45-38)
26
	58
	60
70 (Georgia: W; 34-31)	70 (Georgia: L; 27-24)
	75
86 (South Carolina: L; 24-21)	86 (South Carolina: W, 17-10)
	90
91
	123
FCS

Processing Tennessee vs. Kentucky.

	Tennessee	Kentucky	Comps		Result against Comps		Guess
			Next Worst	Next Best	Next Worst	Next Best
			Team	Team	Team	Team
			Value	Value
Tennessee rushing offense vs. Kentucky rushing defense	166.7	198.6	None	South Carolina	None	South Carolina	180
			None	197.4	None	136
Tennessee passing offense vs. Kentucky passing defense	224.8	227.0	Texas A&M	Appalachian State	Texas A&M	Appalachian State	280
			243.2	216.8	402	192
Tennessee rushing defense vs. Kentucky rushing offense	191.7	215.8	Ohio	Appalachian State	Ohio	Appalachian State	180
			195.6	220.6	88	184
Tennessee passing defense vs. Kentucky passing offense	201.6	174.6	Tennessee Tech	Appalachian State	Tennessee Tech	Appalachian State	140
			164.0	179.2	164	108
Tennessee scoring offense vs. Kentucky scoring defense	32.1	30.4	Tennessee Tech	Georgia	Tennessee Tech	Georgia	38
			55.0	25.9	55	34
Tennessee scoring defense vs. Kentucky scoring offense	25.9	27.3	Tennessee Tech	Ohio	Tennessee Tech	Ohio	20
			0.0	29.3	0	19

Processing Kentucky vs. Tennessee.

	Kentucky	Tennessee	Comps		Result against Comps		Guess
			Next Worst	Next Best	Next Worst	Next Best
			Team	Team	Team	Team
			Value	Value
Kentucky rushing offense vs. Tennessee rushing defense	215.8	191.7	South Carolina	Vanderbilt	South Carolina	Vanderbilt	230
			197.4	170.2	216	258
Kentucky passing offense vs. Tennessee passing defense	174.6	201.6	Georgia	South Carolina	Georgia	South Carolina	130
			205.9	194.2	122	135
Kentucky rushing defense vs. Tennessee rushing offense	198.6	166.7	Vanderbilt	Georgia	Vanderbilt	Georgia	180
			157.8	178.3	141	215
Kentucky passing defense vs. Tennessee passing offense	227.0	224.8	Mississippi State	Florida	Mississippi State	Florida	210
			219.2	228.5	81	320
Kentucky scoring offense vs. Tennessee scoring defense	27.3	25.9	Southern Mississippi	Vanderbilt	Southern Mississippi	Vanderbilt	26
			28.8	21.6	35	20
Kentucky scoring defense vs. Tennessee scoring offense	30.4	32.1	Vanderbilt	Southern Mississippi	Vanderbilt	Southern Mississippi	33
			20.2	33.6	13	44

So . . .

Tennessee: 180 rushing yards, 245 passing yards, 35 points.

Kentucky: 205 rushing yards, 135 passing yards, 23 points.