:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51991541/usa_today_8958961.0.jpeg)
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Stop drives early. Vanderbilt's offense is very good in the red zone, so the best chance for a battered Vols' defense is to stop drives early before they get too close. Tennessee's red zone defense has not been very good at all, so if Vandy sniffs the end zone, it's probably going to end up as seven on the scoreboard. But if the Tennessee defense can somehow keep them off schedule early in drives in the right part of the field, then they'll have a chance to force a punt.
Score early in drives on big plays. Vandy is also extremely good in the red zone on defense. Tennessee's red zone offense has been much better lately, but it looks like it might be best for the Vols to just bust out as many explosive plays as possible and make it a moot point. Bottom line, the Commodores appear to be formidable in tight spaces and short fields, so Tennessee needs to make the most of its playmakers in space.
Score. There's a lot of talk about Vandy's rushing offense with Ralph Webb, and he is good there is no doubt. But the main concern is that Tennessee's rushing defense has been atrocious, and there doesn't appear to be any reason to believe that it's going to get fixed this week. So it's once again on the shoulders of the offense to outscore the defense and to do it quickly.
If the Vols can do those things, they will have done their part to keep their hopes for a trip to the Sugar Bowl alive and well.
Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 21.
-------------------------------------
The tables for this week are below. But as always, a quick note on strength of schedule first. The Vols still hold the nation's most-difficult schedule, while Vanderbilt's is ranked 29th. Here's a handy look at the relative strength of schedules. Wins are in green, losses are in yellow.
| Vols | Commodores |
| 1 (Alabama: L; 49-10) | |
| 9 (Auburn: L; 23-16) | |
| 15 (Western Kentucky: W; 31-30) | |
| 17 (Florida: W; 38-28) | 17 (Florida: L; 13-6) |
| 18 (Texas A&M: L; 45-38) | |
| 27 (Virginia Tech: W; 45-24) | |
| 28 (Appalachian State: W; 20-13) | |
| 32 (Ole Miss: W; 38-17) | |
| 57 (Georgia Tech: L; 38-7) | |
| 62 (Georgia: W; 34-31) | 62 (Georgia: W; 17-16) |
| 64 (Missouri: L; 26-17) | |
| 67 Middle Tennessee: W; 47-24) | |
| 74 (Kentucky: W; 49-36) | 74 (Kentucky: L; 20-13) |
| 83 (Ohio: W; 28-19) | |
| 88 (South Carolina: L; 24-21) | 88 (South Carolina: L; 13-10) |
| FCS (Tennessee Tech: W; 55-0) | FCS (Tennessee State: W; 35-17) |
Processing Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt.
| Tennessee | Vanderbilt | Comps | Result against Comps | Guess | |||
| Next Worst | Next Best | Next Worst | Next Best | ||||
| Team | Team | Team | Team | ||||
| Value | Value | ||||||
| Tennessee rushing offense vs. Vanderbilt rushing defense | 205.6 | 164.5 | Tennessee Tech | Virginia Tech | Tennessee Tech | Virginia Tech | 250 |
| 177.0 | 149.2 | 177 | 239 | ||||
| Tennessee passing offense vs. Vanderbilt passing defense | 224.5 | 236.8 | Missouri | Appalachian State | Missouri | Appalachian State | 220 |
| 237.6 | 210.0 | 223 | 192 | ||||
| Tennessee rushing defense vs. Vanderbilt rushing offense | 235.3 | 162.5 | Florida | Georgia | Florida | Georgia | 160 |
| 150.0 | 179.5 | 106 | 181 | ||||
| Tennessee passing defense vs. Vanderbilt passing offense | 210.9 | 173.8 | Kentucky | Appalachian State | Kentucky | Appalachian State | 170 |
| 172.0 | 180.7 | 192 | 108 | ||||
| Tennessee scoring offense vs. Vanderbilt scoring defense | 36.5 | 21.5 | South Carolina | Texas A&M | South Carolina | Texas A&M | 34 |
| 22.0 | 21.1 | 21 | 38 | ||||
| Tennessee scoring defense vs. Vanderbilt scoring offense | 27.8 | 21.5 | Tennessee Tech | Georgia | Tennessee Tech | Georgia | 24 |
| 0.0 | 23.7 | 0 | 31 | ||||
Processing Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee.
| Vanderbilt | Tennessee | Comps | Result against Comps | Guess | |||
| Next Worst | Next Best | Next Worst | Next Best | ||||
| Team | Team | Team | Team | ||||
| Value | Value | ||||||
| Vanderbilt rushing offense vs. Tennessee rushing defense | 162.5 | 235.3 | Missouri | Mississippi | Missouri | Mississippi | 200 |
| 239.9 | 227.2 | 159 | 208 | ||||
| Vanderbilt passing offense vs. Tennessee passing defense | 173.8 | 210.9 | Auburn | Kentucky | Auburn | Kentucky | 180 |
| 216.8 | 208.5 | 221 | 141 | ||||
| Vanderbilt rushing defense vs. Tennessee rushing offense | 164.5 | 205.6 | Georgia | Missouri | Georgia | Missouri | 180 |
| 179.5 | 211.8 | 75 | 187 | ||||
| Vanderbilt passing defense vs. Tennessee passing offense | 236.8 | 224.5 | Florida | Tennessee State | Florida | Tennessee State | 220 |
| 217.3 | 285.0 | 144 | 285 | ||||
| Vanderbilt scoring offense vs. Tennessee scoring defense | 21.5 | 27.8 | Kentucky | Georgia Tech | Kentucky | Georgia Tech | 21 |
| 30.5 | 24.8 | 13 | 7 | ||||
| Vanderbilt scoring defense vs. Tennessee scoring offense | 21.5 | 36.5 | Tennessee State | Middle Tennessee | Tennessee State | Middle Tennessee | 31 |
| 17.0 | 36.7 | 17 | 24 | ||||
So . . .
Tennessee rushing yards 215, passing yards 220, points 32.
Vanderbilt rushing yards 180, passing yards 175, points 22.