The stat-free statsy preview, Tennessee Vols vs. Appalachian State edition

Each Thursday this season, as in seasons past, we'll take a look at Tennessee and its opponent for the week and the stats that each of them have compiled so far in the season to see how they stack up against each other. When you run that program before any games have been played, though, the computer freaks out, locks up, and spits profanities in binary at you.

What we can do, though, is look at last year's stats and then sort of adjust for what the teams have coming back. The first part of that is below, but SPOILER ALERT, it's all hogwash:

					Comps				Result against Comps		Guess
					Closest Lower		Closest Higher		Closest Lower	Closest Higher
					Team		Team		Team	Team
	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value	Rank	Value
Tennessee rushing offense vs. Appy State rushing defense	20	223.7	27	131.5	Missouri		Florida		Missouri	Florida	220
					28	132.8	25	128.1	248	254
Tennessee passing offense vs. Appy State passing defense	92	198.6	14	182.9	Northwestern		Florida		Northwestern	Florida	250
					23	192.8	13	182.1	129	165
Tennessee rushing defense vs. Appy State rushing offense	45	151.6	6	271.5	Oklahoma		None		Oklahoma	None	140
					23	222.1			161
Tennessee passing defense vs. Appy State passing offense	47	210.4	93	195.8	Georgia		Florida		Georgia	Florida	180
					104	185.1	87	207.1	279	283
Tennessee scoring offense vs. Appy State scoring defense	29	35.2	14	19.1	Vanderbilt		Northwestern		Vanderbilt	Northwestern	45
					22	21	12	18.6	53	45
Tennessee scoring defense vs. Appy State scoring offense	16	20	23	36.7	Arkansas		Bowling Green		Arkansas	Bowling Green	20
					27	35.9	6	42.2	24	30

If you removed that giant yellow "A" and all of the "Appy States" from that table, you'd think we were playing someone on the Vols' SEC schedule. I mean, they look really good and almost made me have to re-write this entire post. After all, the Mountaineers finished last season in the top 10 in rushing offense, top 15 in passing defense and scoring defense, and around the top 25 in rushing defense and scoring offense. The only thing they didn't do well is pass the ball. Sounds vaguely familiar, but I can't quite put my finger on why.

But, but, but . . . look at their schedule:

I don't know who Howard is, but he's apparently terrible at football.

That schedule, by the way, was ranked 91st, which for those keeping score is Not Very Strong.

On the other hand, the Mountaineers were a respectable 43rd in S&P+, and they do have a bunch of their guys coming back. They return 17 of 22 starters, including linebacker John Law, who's the Sun Belt's Preseason Defensive Player of the Year (Real award? Guess so.), and quarterback Taylor Lamb, who's a three-year starter with 23 consecutive starts to his name. Oh, and look -- it's Dale Jones on the sideline.

And yet, look at that Clemson score, and allow us to repeat that they've not fared well against Power 5 conferences since that fabled day at the Big House.

So. What to do with all of that iffy and meaningless information? Add a little spit and mud, mix, throw it against the wall, and . . .

. . . I'm going to go ahead and guess that Tennessee's going to run the ball as well as they did last year, pass the ball better, stop the run as well, and stop the pass better. And I think they're going to score like they do in bowl games and hold the Mountaineers to two meaningful scores and a handful of garbage points.

Tennessee 45, Appalachian State 20.

Go Vols.