Last week I took a deep stroll through the advanced stats from SBNation’s Bill Connelly. They provided a pretty staggering look at how bad things were going for Tennessee. They look even worse this week.
The model actually liked Tennessee to win last week against South Carolina. Six to seven wins were the most likely case for the Vols to finish 2017 with last week. Now after a loss, the model suggests a five win season is very possible — if not likely.
The biggest surprise here is just a 41% chance of beating Southern Miss in Knoxville. The model uses stats from previous games and stacks them into a prediction. It’s far from an exact science obviously, but that’s pretty alarming.
Tennessee is favored over Missouri and Vanderbilt from here on out. Kentucky has a 52% shot to win in Lexington against the Vols. That leaves four toss-ups and two (very) likely losses (Alabama and LSU) on the schedule.
So the Volunteers are going to have to win three of those four toss-up type games to even make it to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. How confident are you that they can do that?