College Football Stats Model Projects 4-8 Finish for Tennessee

The statistical profiles over at Football Study Hall have been updated to include last weekend’s game. And man — they aren’t pretty for Tennessee. They dropped 29 spots from 66th overall to 95th overall. I’ve got to think that some of that is inflated, simply because of the Vols having to take on Alabama, but still. Yuck.

Last week the model predicted a Tennessee loss to Southern Miss. This week the model stuck with that projection, but now projects a 12 point loss to the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss is 5-2 and nearly took down Kentucky in week one. They lost by seven at home.

Here are the new projections for this week.

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The S&P+ has Southern Miss at 22, which does seem too high for what it’s worth. However, if the model proves to be correct in their W-L projection, Tennessee would have their first 4 win season since 1977.

On the bright side, the Kentucky Wildcats rank just four slots ahead of Tennessee at 91st. They were demolished on the road at Mississippi State last weekend 45-7.

Unfortunately, Missouri seems to be making some strides forward. We’ve seen them hang right with Kentucky and put up 28 on a good Georgia defense that shut Tennessee out. Obviously their defense is the issue here, but the model now projects a Missouri win over Tennessee by ten points. I’m not sure I buy that one either, but we’ll see.

I’ve seen plenty of chatter about the possibility of Tennessee finishing 8-4. I just don’t see it. Not with where this offense is at right now. The defense seems to be coming around, they’ve just been gashed late out of pure exhaustion. Maybe they can will Tennessee to a couple of wins.

To complete my point about going 8-4, the model gives Tennessee a 1 percent shot at that. 5-7 is the most likely outcome from the model, though their projections above suggest 4-8. Either outcome is more than enough for wholesale changes.

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You can dive into all of the Tennessee advanced stats here. The full S&P+ rankings are here. I’d guess this will be the lowest point for Tennessee. The numbers should rise from this point on, but what a disappoint it’s been so far.