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CBS Sports released a really cool piece today, taking a look at gambling trends for each team in the SEC. As you can probably guess, the numbers weren’t kind to the Vols.
In fact, over the past ten years the Tennessee Volunteers rank 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC against the spread. That’s brutal, but the more surprising numbers lie a little bit deeper.
Check out what Tom Fornelli dug up on the Vols.
55-67-3 (.450) -- Much like Texas A&M, you want to bet against Tennessee when it’s at home. The Vols are 28-43-1 ATS at Neyland since 2008. Pay particular attention when the Vols are a home dog, as they’re 5-15 ATS. (Via CBS Sports)
These numbers aren’t all that surprising. They’re pulled from the worst decade of football in Tennessee history — spanning from the final year of Phillip Fulmer all the way through the dreadful end to the Butch Jones era.
The home numbers are the eye-opener here. Tennessee is just 28-43-1 against the spread in Neyland Stadium since 2008. That’s staggering, considering the advantage that Neyland should provide. The Vols’ struggles at home have been discussed, but these numbers really pop. To compare, Alabama is 35-34 against the spread at home. Mississippi State is 37-28 at home. Only Texas A&M compares to Tennessee, putting up a 16-25-1 record at home since joining the SEC.
Tennessee is a full 15 games below .500 against the spread at home over the last decade. 15 games! This means Vegas has been adjusting for a home field advantage that quite frankly hasn’t existed in a decade.
As home underdogs, Tennessee is just 5-15 at home. If you’re a gambler, you could have made a lot of money off of betting against the Vols over the past ten years — even though that isn’t much fun. But hey, watching the Vols during that span wasn’t much fun either.
Hopefully these trends begin to turn in the other direction under Jeremy Pruitt, who seems to be doing everything he possibly can to change the culture in Knoxville. How quickly those results come remains to be seen.