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Bracketology: Tennessee No. 3 overall, atop Midwest Region

Our latest projection.

NCAA Basketball: Final Four Preview David Wallace-USA TODAY Sports

After a wild week of college basketball action that saw Syracuse win at Duke and also saw the last two undefeated teams fall on Saturday, our latest bracket projection has Tennessee up to No. 3 overall on the board, behind just Virginia and Michigan. Duke just beats out Michigan State for the last spot on the top line.

Virginia is still helped by having four Tier 1 victories and eight total victories against the top two groups. The Cavaliers also still sit at No. 1 in the NET rankings (Tennessee is No. 4 at the moment). Michigan is 9-1 against the top two groups and 4-1 against Group 1. Their wins over North Carolina and at Villanova are likely going to continue to carry them to a No. 1 seed.

Tennessee is 4-1 against Group 1 but only add two more wins from Group 2 and are coming off a scare at home against Alabama (among the last four in today). But those four Group 1 wins are still all away from home, including a win over Louisville that looks better and better by the day. If Tennessee continues to win, they will make a strong case to be the overall No. 1 seed. This week, the Vols are at Vanderbilt and home against a West Virginia team that just scored their first Big 12 win of the season against Kansas.

Here’s your latest bracket projection.

NCAA Tournament Projection: 1/21

South Region (Louisville) East Region (Washington, D.C.)
South Region (Louisville) East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Columbia (Mar. 22/24) Columbus (Mar. 22/24)
1. Virginia (ACC) 1. Michigan
16. Robert Morris (NEC) / Prairie View (SWAC) 16. Bucknell (Patriot)
8. Mississippi State 8. Florida State
9. Kansas State 9. St. John's
Salt Lake City (Mar. 21/23) Seattle (Mar. 22/24)
5. Wisconsin 5. Villanova (Big East)
12. Wofford (Southern) 12. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
4. Houston (AAC) 4. Buffalo (MAC)
13. Radford (Big South) 13. Hofstra (Colonial)
Tulsa (Mar. 22/24) Hartford (Mar. 21/23)
6. Iowa 6. Purdue
11. Arizona State / Alabama 11. VCU
3. Texas Tech 3. Virginia Tech
14. South Dakota State (Summit) 14. Marshall (Conference USA)
Jacksonville (Mar. 21/23) Tulsa (Mar. 22/24)
7. Indiana 7. Nebraska
10. Baylor 10. Cincinnati
2. Kentucky 2. Kansas (Big 12)
15. Rider (MAAC) 15. Princeton (Ivy)
West Region (Anaheim) Midwest Region (Kansas City)
Columbia (Mar. 22/24) Jacksonville (Mar. 21/23)
1. Duke 1. Tennessee (SEC)
16. Cal State Bakersfield (WAC) 16. Sam Houston St (S-land) / Norfolk St (MEAC)
8. Auburn 8. Texas
9. Ohio State 9. Syracuse
Des Moines (Mar. 21/23) Salt Lake City (Mar. 21/23)
5. Nevada (Mountain West) 5. Louisville
12. Liberty (Atlantic Sun) 12. Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)
4. Iowa State 4. Marquette
13. Texas State (Sun Belt) 13. Vermont (America East)
Des Moines (Mar. 21/23) Hartford (Mar. 21/23)
6. LSU 6. Oklahoma
11. Washington (Pac-12) 11. Arizona / Minnesota
3. Maryland 3. North Carolina
14. Northern Kentucky (Horizon) 14. Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
Seattle (Mar. 22/24) Columbus (Mar. 22/24)
7. North Carolina State 7. Ole Miss
10. Butler 10. Seton Hall
2. Gonzaga (West Coast) 2. Michigan State (Big Ten)
15. UC Santa Barbara (Big West) 15. Weber State (Big Sky)

Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Baylor, Butler, VCU

Last Four In: Arizona State, Alabama, Arizona, Minnesota

First Four Out: TCU, UCF, Temple, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: Oregon, Florida, San Francisco, Utah State

Conference Breakdown

Big Ten - 10

ACC - 8

Big 12 - 7

SEC - 7

Big East - 5

Pac-12 - 3

AAC - 2

Atlantic 10 - 2

One-bid leagues - 24