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Bracketology Results and NCAA Seed List Comparison

How did I do?

By BillRiccette
NCAA Basketball: Big Ten Conference Tournament-Michigan vs Michigan State David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

With the NCAA Tournament officially unveiled, it’s time to find out how well I did. For reference, here’s my final projection.

As it turns out, moving Michigan State late was a miss, as the committee kept Gonzaga on the top line as the fourth No. 1 seed. Gonzaga was likely rewarded for their No. 2 NET ranking and win over Duke, even with Michigan State finishing with 13 Quadrant 1 wins. Even Tennessee ranked higher than Michigan State on the seed list, allowing them to stay away from Duke and be placed in the South region with Virginia (which was the closest region anyway to Tennessee).

As far as the bubble is concerned, that was a late switch I did get correct, as St. John’s ended up as the final team in the field, while North Carolina State wasn’t even among the first four out. In the end, the Johnnies’ NET ranking did not hurt them as the focus seemed to be on Quadrant 1 wins, of which St. John’s had five, compared to just three for North Carolina State, with only one coming against a tournament team in Auburn.

BELMONT IS IN THE FIELD!

I’ve never been happier to have been wrong about a team. It is very exciting to see Belmont in the field. The committee liked how Belmont made the most of their opportunities, with their two Quadrant 1 wins over Murray State and Lipscomb. In fact, had Oregon not won the Pac-12, Belmont would’ve been among the last four byes group and UNC Greensboro, believe it or not, would’ve been the last team in.

In the end, the last four in were Belmont, Temple, Arizona State and St. John’s, while the first four out were UNC Greensboro, Alabama, TCU and Indiana.

With the new era of the NET ranking and no idea how the committee would deal with the new rankings and data, I’m happy to have only missed one team in the field. I had TCU in over Belmont. I ended up with 67 teams correctly selected, 38 of those teams correctly seeded and another 24 teams within one seed line. I missed four teams by two seed lines (Buffalo, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall and Iowa) and one team by three lines (Syracuse).

Overall, I am happy with my performance, I’m happy I made the right call to move St. John’s in and happy to have been wrong about Gonzaga as a top seed and Belmont in the field.

Also, for comparison’s sake, here is the NCAA seed list alongside where I had the teams ranked in my final seed list.

Final seeds list vs. final projection

1 Duke 1
1 Duke 1
2 Virginia 2
3 North Carolina 3
5 Gonzaga 4
6 Tennessee 5
4 Michigan State 6
7 Kentucky 7
8 Michigan 8
9 Houston 9
13 Texas Tech 10
10 LSU 11
14 Purdue 12
11 Kansas 13
12 Florida State 14
19 Kansas State 15
23 Virginia Tech 16
21 Marquette 17
20 Auburn 18
15 Wisconsin 19
22 Mississippi State 20
17 Villanova 21
26 Maryland 22
16 Buffalo 23
18 Iowa State 24
28 Louisville 25
24 Nevada 26
27 Cincinnati 27
25 Wofford 28
34 VCU 29
42 Syracuse 30
32 Ole Miss 31
31 Utah State 32
35 Washington 33
33 UCF 34
39 Baylor 35
37 Oklahoma 36
30 Iowa 37
29 Seton Hall 38
36 Minnesota 39
38 Florida 40
46 Ohio State 41
Belmont 42
40 Temple 43
44 Saint Mary's 44
43 Arizona State 45
48 Murray State 46
47 St. John's 47
41 Oregon 48
49 New Mexico State 49
50 Liberty 50
51 UC Irvine 51
52 Vermont 52
54 Saint Louis 53
53 Northeastern 54
56 Yale 55
55 Old Dominion 56
57 Georgia State 57
58 Northern Kentucky 58
59 Montana 59
60 Colgate 60
63 Bradley 61
62 Abiene Christian 62
61 Gardner-Webb 63
64 Iona 64
66 Prairie View A&M 65
67 Fairleigh Dickinson 66
65 North Dakota State 67
68 North Carolina Central 68
45 TCU

This has been a fantastic season and another successful one, my ninth year doing bracketology. Stay tuned to see how I fared compared to the other bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix.

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