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Projecting the College Football Playoff rankings following week 11

How will things shake out at the top?

TCU v Texas Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

The College Football Playoff rankings likely avoided any major shake-ups in the top four, but we did have another batch of eliminations.

Oregon went down at home to Washington, officially ending their bid to sneak into the final four. There was some chatter about the Ducks running the table and potentially ousting a Tennessee or Michigan/Ohio State, but that is no more.

Elsewhere, UCLA and Ole Miss each took their second loss, failing on opportunities to move up the pecking order.

Everyone else held serve, and the seven teams with chances to make the final four are now crystal clear. Here’s how we think it will shake out on Tuesday night.

College Football Playoff projected top six

1. Georgia

Georgia went on the road and put Mississippi State away early on in the third quarter, avoiding any sort of drama after State took back a punt to close the first half. The Bulldogs will cruise their way to Atlanta with just Kentucky and Georgia Tech left.

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes bounced back from an ugly game against Northwestern, smacking Indiana around in Columbus. Not much to see here, Ohio State took care of business.

3. Michigan

No issues for Michigan against Nebraska. Everything is boiling up to Michigan-Ohio State in a couple of weeks. Is that a true elimination game? It may depend on how it plays out. Tennessee is certainly hoping that it’s not close.

Will the committee move up TCU to No. 3 right here? It’s possible, due to Michigan’s lacking resume. You could also argue Tennessee’s body of work is more impressive than Michigan’s as things currently stand. But based on how things shook out last week, Michigan probably sticks at No. 3.

4. TCU

It seemed like everyone had decided that TCU was going to lose to Texas this week, but that didn’t happen. The Horned Frogs won a defensive game, shutting down Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns all night long. Big hurdle cleared here — now just Baylor, Iowa State and a Big 12 title game remain.

Again, TCU at No. 3 is possible, but ultimately doesn’t matter.

5. Tennessee

Like Georgia, Tennessee put away Missouri in the third quarter with a complete avalanche in the third quarter. The Volunteers added some style points, trying to get the committee’s attention with 66 points scored. One-loss Tennessee vs. one-loss OSU/MICH is going to be a fiery debate in the coming weeks.

6. LSU

Tricky, tricky spot for LSU — and they found a way. It was an ugly one in Arkansas but LSU stays alive. They clinch the west and must beat Georgia in the SEC title game to have a chance.

Rest of the projected top ten (Goodbye, Oregon)

7. USC

8. Alabama

9. Clemson

10. Oregon

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Tennessee has +1200 odds to win the National Championship. That’s good for fourth overall, trailing Georgia (-120), Ohio State (+240), Michigan (+700).

TCU is up to fifth after that Texas win, now sitting at +2500. USC and LSU are seemingly the only other two with a shot, both at +4000.

The latest College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed live on ESPN on Tuesday around 9 p.m. ET, in between Champions Classic games (Michigan State vs. Kentucky and Duke vs. Kansas).

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.