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Matt’s Monday Morning Bracketology — Christmas week

A little late due to the Holidays. Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone! It’s once again time for my weekly bracketology breakdown, and there was quite a bit of movement over the last week with some big games heading into the holiday break. Before we get to The Board, let’s take a look at some games over the past week with prominent bracket impact:

Notable games: 12/19-12/25

* Florida def. Michigan 106-101 (2OT)
— Florida wins a big time game to get them above the right side of the bubble and up to 10-seed line.

* Providence def. Marquette 72-57
— Providence jumps from First Four Out to final 7-seed with massive home win over Marquette. The loss drops Marquette from 2-seed line to the top 3-seed.

* Memphis def. Virginia 77-54
— 23 point loss drops Virginia from last 5-seed to 9-seed line.

* Duke def. Baylor 78-70
— Duke leaps five seed lines with major Quad-1 win over Baylor at MSG.

* North Carolina def. Oklahoma 81-69
— UNC’s emphatic Quad-1 win over OU catapults them from top 8-seed to last 4-seed.

* St. John’s def. Xavier 81-66
— Johnnies get big win over fellow bubble team, and with close loss at UConn, make their first appearance on The Board and up to 11-seed.

* Villanova def. Creighton 68-66 (OT)
— After dropping three straight, Nova has rattled off three in a row, most notably this win at Creighton. Villanova jumps five seeds off the bubble up to final 6-seed.

* Seton Hall def. UConn 75-60
— Not very notable for seeding as UConn remains 2-seed, but Donovan Clingan gets hurt in brutal loss for Huskies. Clingan is UConn’s most important player, so the sooner they get him back, the better.

* Nevada def. TCU 88-75
— TCU falls from final team out to off the Board; Nevada wins Diamond Head Classic and vaults off the bubble from top 10-seed to top 7-seed.

* Florida Atlantic def. Arizona 96-95 (2OT)
— FAU is still here, and they’re damn good. The Owls leap to the final 1-seed line with a thrilling victory over Arizona in a game of the year contender.

* Providence def. Butler 85-75 (OT)
— Providence continues to rack up wins over tournament potential teams.

Biggest Risers

A bit of a disclaimer. With it being so early in the season, big wins will create more pronounced jumps than they would towards the end of January.

Duke Blue Devils: +5 | 11-seed to 6-seed

Duke desperately needed this win over Baylor. The ACC is still a clear cut below the other power conferences with Quad-1 win opportunities being few and far between, so Duke overcoming a couple bad losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech with a big win over Baylor without Tyrese Proctor bodes well for them down the line, and it catapults them from the bubble up to a 6-seed.

Villanova Wildcats: +5 | 11-seed to 6-seed

Villanova continues to rack up big wins, and if it weren’t for inexplicable losses to Penn and Drexel, they’d be a three seed or higher. ‘Nova now has wins over a bubble team in Texas Tech and three teams in the top 20 overall seeds: North Carolina, Memphis and now Creighton.

Biggest Fallers

This is solely for teams that fell within The Board who are still on The Board. We will get to teams that dropped out entirely shortly.

Virginia Cavaliers: -4 | 5-seed to 9-seed

Despite wins over Florida and Texas A&M on their résumé, Virginia has now lost to a pair of top 20 seeds in Wisconsin and Memphis by 24 and 23 respectively.

Indiana State Sycamores: -4 | 8-seed to 12-seed

This was bound to happen solely due to strength of schedule. Indiana State, while 11-1 with blowout wins against virtually everyone on their schedule, has yet to win against a team inside of KenPom’s top 100. While teams below them racked up Quad-1 wins, those opportunities just aren’t there for the Sycamores.

Newcomers

St. John’s Red Storm: 11-seed

Welcome, Rick Pitino. St. John’s is helped both by their 15-point win over Xavier and close loss on the road against UConn, but also by Utah continuing to win big games. The Johnnies’ win over Utah on November 19 is the Utes’ last loss, so the better they play, the stronger St. John’s’ résumé continues to look.

Oregon and NC State: Next Four Out

¡Hasta Luego!

Appalachian State (N4O), Kansas State (N4O), TCU (N4O)


The Board

Seed Ovr Team Conf. Trend NET KenPom WAB Record Quad 1 Q 1&2 Quad 3 Quad 4
Seed Ovr Team Conf. Trend NET KenPom WAB Record Quad 1 Q 1&2 Quad 3 Quad 4
1 1 Houston Big XII NEW 1 1 1 2 12-0 4-0 4-0 1-0 7-0
1 2 Purdue B1G 4 2 1 11-1 5-1 7-1 2-0 2-0
1 3 Arizona PAC-12 2 3 5 9-2 4-2 4-2 2-0 3-0
1 4 FAU AAC ↑2 6 11 9 10-2 1-1 5-1 2-0 2-1
2 5 Clemson ACC 12 26 3 10-1 2-1 5-1 1-0 4-0
2 6 Tennessee SEC 7 6 17 9-3 2-3 5-3 0-0 4-0
2 7 Kansas Big XII ↓1 15 16 6 11-1 3-1 4-1 2-0 4-0
2 8 UConn Big East 8 5 11 11-2 2-1 4-2 2-0 5-0
3 9 Marquette Big East ↓1 11 13 14 10-3 2-3 3-3 1-0 6-0
3 10 Wisconsin B1G 14 14 15 9-3 3-3 4-3 1-0 4-0
3 11 Memphis AAC 38 32 4 10-2 2-2 7-2 0-0 3-0
3 12 Colorado State MWC ↑1 16 28 7 11-1 1-0 4-1 5-0 1-0
4 13 Illinois B1G 10 9 26 9-2 1-2 2-2 3-0 4-0
4 14 Creighton Big East ↓1 13 17 33 9-3 2-1 4-3 1-0 4-0
4 15 Texas A&M SEC 19 23 30 8-4 3-3 3-4 1-0 4-0
4 16 North Carolina ACC ↑4 26 15 28 8-3 2-3 3-3 3-0 2-0
5 17 Baylor Big XII ↓1 17 18 31 10-2 2-2 2-2 2-0 5-0
5 18 Dayton A-10 ↑1 22 35 12 9-2 3-2 3-2 3-0 3-0
5 19 Utah PAC-12 ↑1 25 31 18 9-2 2-2 3-2 1-0 5-0
5 20 Oklahoma Big XII ↓1 20 22 20 10-1 0-1 4-1 0-0 6-0
6 21 BYU Big XII ↓1 3 4 24 11-1 1-1 2-1 3-0 6-0
6 22 James Madison Sun Belt ↑1 30 68 8 12-0 1-0 3-0 2-0 6-0
6 23 Duke ACC ↑5 18 7 46 8-3 2-1 2-3 2-0 4-0
6 24 Villanova Big East ↑5 31 25 47 9-4 3-0 4-2 1-2 4-0
7 25 Nevada MWC ↑3 36 37 13 12-1 2-0 2-1 5-0 5-0
7 26 Kentucky SEC ↓1 27 19 38 9-2 1-1 3-1 1-1 5-0
7 27 Mississippi State SEC ↑4 32 29 34 10-2 1-0 4-1 2-0 4-1
7 28 Providence Big East ↑F4O 52 41 29 11-2 2-1 4-2 0-0 7-0
8 29 Princeton Ivy ↓3 24 55 15 11-1 0-1 3-1 4-0 2-0
8 30 San Diego State MWC ↓1 29 30 18 10-2 0-2 3-2 3-0 2-0
8 31 Grand Canyon WAC ↓2 41 61 25 10-1 3-1 3-1 0-0 7-0
8 32 Auburn SEC ↓1 21 10 37 9-2 0-1 2-2 3-0 4-0
9 33 Ohio State B1G ↓1 28 27 36 10-2 1-1 1-2 4-0 5-0
9 34 Iowa State Big XII ↓1 5 12 60 10-2 0-2 2-2 0-0 8-0
9 35 Virginia ACC ↓4 36 39 32 9-2 2-2 2-2 3-0 4-0
9 36 Alabama SEC 9 8 71 7-5 1-5 2-5 1-0 4-0
10 37 Utah State MWC ↓3 29 62 21 12-1 0-0 3-1 4-0 2-0
10 38 Florida SEC ↑2 46 33 47 9-3 1-2 3-3 1-0 5-0
10 39 Virginia Tech ACC 49 49 44 9-3 1-3 2-3 1-0 6-0
10 40 Gonzaga WCC ↓1 45 20 39 9-3 0-3 2-3 2-0 4-0
11 41 South Carolina SEC ↓2 43 67 22 11-1 2-1 2-1 2-0 7-0
11 42 Ole Miss SEC ↓1 56 80 10 12-0 0-0 3-0 1-0 8-0
11 43 St. John's Big East NEW 50 43 64 8-4 1-2 2-3 1-0 4-0
11 44 New Mexico MWC ↓2 34 34 23 11-1 0-1 1-1 4-0 6-0
11 45 Michigan State B1G ↑1 35 21 93 7-5 1-5 2-5 1-0 4-0
11* 46 Colorado PAC-12 33 24 53 9-2 0-1 2-1 0-1 7-0
12* 47 Northwestern B1G 71 56 43 9-2 2-1 2-1 1-0 6-1
12* 48 Nebraska B1G ↓2 57 54 35 10-2 0-1 2-2 2-0 6-0
12* 49 Washington PAC-12 ↓1 59 60 50 8-3 0-2 3-3 0-0 5-0
12 50 Indiana State MVC ↓4 23 59 27 11-1 0-1 0-1 4-0 6-0
F4O 51 Butler Big East ↓1 55 63 40 10-3 0-3 2-3 1-0 6-0
F4O 52 Miami (FL) ACC 61 64 41 9-2 0-2 2-2 1-0 6-0
F4O 53 Saint Joseph's A-10 ↓1 62 77 70 9-3 2-1 2-2 2-0 5-1
F4O 54 Texas Tech Big XII ↑1 64 45 42 9-2 0-2 1-2 2-0 6-0
N4O 55 Kansas State Big XII 85 69 49 9-3 0-0 2-3 2-0 5-0
N4O 56 Oregon PAC-12 NEW 68 48 74 8-3 0-1 2-2 2-1 4-0
N4O 57 Boise State MWC ↓1 75 72 72 8-4 0-3 3-4 1-0 2-0
N4O 58 NC State ACC NEW 70 74 63 9-3 1-3 1-3 1-0 7-0

Seeding by Conference

When we pick back up the college basketball season after the holidays and the New Year, it will be time for conference play. Here’s how the conferences with multiple seeds line up:

SEC: Nine (2, 4, 7, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 11)
Big Ten: Seven (1, 3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 12)
ACC: Six (2, 4, 6, 9, 10)
Big East: Six (2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11)
Big XII: Six (1, 2, 5, 5, 6, 9)
Mountain West: Five (3, 7, 8, 10, 11)
PAC-12: Four (1, 5, 11, 12)
American: Two (1, 3)

As always, start some dialogue below on any questions you may have, what you think, what’d you’d change, to yell at me. Stay safe, and enjoy the New Year!

Tennessee Volunteer Basketball

AP Top 25: Tennessee stays put after big week

Monday Morning Bracketology — A shake-up at the top

Monday Musings: Vols stood on business in T-Town