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Matt’s Monday Morning Bracketology | January 15

A lot has changed in a couple weeks

Welcome back, and Happy New Year! With both the new year and some personal things that came up, I took a couple weeks off, but we’re back, feeling good, and wow...college basketball is officially back. Before we get into The Board, let’s look at some big results over the past week that had major seeding impact:

Notable games: 1/9-1/15

January 9

* Iowa State def. Houston 57-53
— The Cyclones knock off the nation’s final unbeaten as Hilton Magic strikes again. Cyclones move up to the top 8-seed from when we last saw them.

* Baylor def. BYU 81-72
— Baylor notches a big Quad 1A win at home over an over-ranked BYU squad at home. Coupled with a close home win against Cincinnati at home, Baylor picked up a pair of wins over current tournament teams.

* Boise State def. Colorado State 65-58
— Boise State picked up a couple big wins this week, most notably against Colorado State at home. The Broncos are now 3-1 in Quad 1 games on the season and leapt 39 spots from 72nd to 33rd in wins above bracket.

* Nebraska def. Purdue 88-72
— The biggest upset in a slew of upsets (17 ranked teams were beat over the course of the week) was the Huskers knocking off the Boilers. While other results from other teams have put Purdue in the number one overall seed, Nebraska has leapt off the bubble for the time being even with the blowout loss at Iowa.

January 10

* Mississippi State def. Tennessee 77-73
— Starkville nearly saw a double digit halftime lead slip through their fingers, but the Bulldogs pulled away at the end, upsetting a Tennessee team that forgot how to play basketball for a half. Despite losing close to Alabama on Saturday, this win has State up in the 8-seed ranks and officially off the bubble as it stands.

* Virginia Tech def. Clemson 87-72
— This was a thorough victory for the Hokies as they controlled nearly from the tip to the final horn. While the loss to Miami on top of losing three of their first four ACC games has seen them drop to the extremes of the bubble, this game could be a pivotal one for their chances.

January 11

* Santa Clara def. Gonzaga 77-76
— For the first time since the first Obama administration, Santa Clara defeated Gonzaga, officially taking Mark Few and co. completely off the bubble as it stands.

January 12

* Boise State def. Nevada 64-56
— The Broncos forced Nevada into a slog, upsetting the Wolfpack in Reno. Again, a major week for Leon Rice and the Broncos.

January 13
* TCU def. Houston 68-67
— TCU might be the only team with a better week than Boise State, and if not for a bad call against Kansas, they’d be 3-0 in Big 12 play with three Quad 1 wins. That being said, wins over OU and Houston aren’t too bad at all. TCU leaps from the depths of the bubble all the way to the second 8-seed.

* St. Thomas def. Oral Roberts 87-76
— The Tommies knocked off preseason Summit League #2 Oral Roberts on the road, cementing themselves as a firm favorite in the Summit this season.

Biggest Risers

Alabama Crimson Tide: +6 | 10-seed to 4-seed

The Tide are off to a good start in ACC play with a dominant 36-point win over bubble team South Carolina at home and 8-point win at Mississippi State. They survived a scare against lowly Vanderbilt, but it was smooth sailing this past week for the nation’s best offense.

Biggest Fallers

Again, this is solely for teams that fell within The Board who are still on The Board.

James Madison: -6 | 6-seed to 12-seed

JMU has dropped two of their last three games in Sun Belt play, one by double digits at Southern Miss, a team ranked 243 on KenPom, and by four at home against Appalachian State. JMU is clinging desperately to that Michigan State win for its résumé right now, and with very few chances to pick up quality wins in the Sun Belt, they’re more than likely to drop to a 13-seed eventually.

Newcomers

TCU: 8-seed
Seton Hall: 11-seed
Cincinnati: 11-seed
Wake Forest: 11-seed
Saint Mary’s: 12-seed (auto-qualifier)

¡Hasta Luego!

NC State, Florida, Virginia, Kansas State, Gonzaga

Bubble Watch

FIRST FOUR BYES

Northwestern (10), Ole Miss (11), South Carolina (11), Seton Hall (11)

LAST FOUR IN

Cincinnati (11), Wake Forest (11), Virginia Tech (12), Miami FL (12)

FIRST FOUR OUT

Oregon, New Mexico, Washington State, Providence

NEXT FOUR OUT

Ohio State, Xavier, Butler, Texas

The Board

Through Jan. 15

Seed Ovr Team Conf. Trend NET KenPom WAB Record Quad 1A Q 1&2 Q3 L's Q4 L's
Seed Ovr Team Conf. Trend NET KenPom WAB Record Quad 1A Q 1&2 Q3 L's Q4 L's
1 1 Purdue B1G NEW 3 3 1st 15-2 4-0 9-2 0 0
1 2 Arizona PAC-12 2 2 8th 12-4 4-1 6-4 0 0
1 3 Houston Big XII 1 1 10th 14-2 2-2 4-2 0 0
1 4 UConn Big East ↑1 10 7 2nd 15-2 1-1 7-2 0 0
2 5 North Carolina ACC ↑3 7 7 6th 13-3 3-2 5-3 0 0
2 6 Wisconsin B1G ↑1 11 9 3rd 13-3 1-2 8-3 0 0
2 7 Kansas Big XII ↓1 15 17 7th 14-2 3-1 6-2 0 0
2 8 Baylor Big XII ↑2 12 14 9th 14-2 2-2 6-2 0 0
3 9 Tennessee SEC ↓1 6 8 13th 12-4 1-4 6-4 0 0
3 10 Dayton A-10 ↑3 17 29 4th 13-2 1-1 6-2 0 0
3 11 Creighton Big East ↑1 13 15 17th 13-4 1-2 6-4 0 0
3 12 Duke ACC ↑4 14 10 23rd 13-3 2-1 3-3 0 0
4 13 Alabama SEC ↑6 4 6 28th 11-5 1-3 4-5 0 0
4 14 Marquette Big East ↓2 21 19 36th 11-5 3-2 4-5 0 0
4 15 Utah PAC-12 ↓1 24 25 25th 12-5 2-2 5-5 0 0
4 16 Clemson ACC ↓2 27 31 18th 12-4 1-2 5-4 0 0
5 17 Utah State MWC ↑4 19 41 11th 16-1 0-0 6-1 0 0
5 18 Auburn SEC ↑2 8 4 19th 14-2 0-1 5-2 0 0
5 19 San Diego State MWC 25 24 12th 14-3 0-3 5-3 0 0
5 20 Colorado State MWC ↓2 20 26 16th 13-3 1-1 5-3 0 0
6 21 FAU AAC ↓3 26 21 32nd 13-4 1-1 6-2 1 1
6 22 St. John's Big East ↑5 34 34 26th 12-5 2-3 6-4 1 0
6 23 Kentucky SEC 18 18 34th 12-3 1-1 3-2 1 0
6 24 BYU Big XII ↓1 5 11 39th 13-3 0-2 3-3 0 0
7 25 Memphis AAC ↓3 39 45 5th 15-2 0-0 7-2 0 0
7 26 Illinois B1G ↓3 9 9 32nd 11-3 1-2 3-3 0 0
7 27 Oklahoma Big XII 23 20 24th 13-3 1-3 4-3 0 0
7 28 Villanova Big East ↓1 31 23 48th 11-5 2-0 5-2 3 0
8 29 Iowa State Big XII ↑2 11 17 46th 12-3 1-1 3-3 0 0
8 30 TCU Big XII NEW 29 22 30th 13-3 2-0 5-2 3 0
8 31 Texas A&M SEC 41 35 49th 10-6 2-2 4-5 1 0
8 32 Mississippi State SEC ↑1 35 28 41st 12-4 1-1 5-3 1 0
9 33 Boise State MWC ↑N4O 44 50 33rd 12-4 0-1 6-4 0 0
9 34 Michigan State B1G ↑1 22 16 73rd 10-7 1-4 3-7 0 0
9 35 Grand Canyon WAC ↓1 40 56 26th 16-1 0-0 3-1 0 0
9 36 Princeton Ivy 28 51 20th 13-1 0-0 4-1 0 0
10 37 Nevada MWC ↓2 43 44 27th 15-2 0-0 2-2 0 0
10 38 Nebraska B1G ↑2 46 41 38th 13-3 1-2 3-3 0 0
10 39 Texas Tech Big XII ↑N4O 33 26 31st 13-2 0-0 2-2 0 0
10 40 Northwestern B1G ↑2 69 54 31st 12-4 1-2 4-3 0 1
11 41 Indiana State MVC 30 48 29th 14-3 0-2 2-3 0 0
11 42 Ole Miss SEC 56 70 14th 15-1 0-1 4-1 0 0
11 43 South Carolina SEC 54 65 15th 14-2 0-2 4-2 0 0
11 44 Seton Hall Big East NEW 66 64 44th 12-5 1-1 4-4 1 0
11 45 Cincinnati Big XII NEW 33 32 55th 12-4 1-2 1-4 0 0
11 46 Wake Forest ACC NEW 46 37 52nd 12-4 0-1 5-4 0 0
12 47 Saint Mary's WCC NEW 32 38 82nd 13-6 1-1 4-4 2 0
12 48 Virginia Tech ACC ↓1 51 60 70th 10-6 1-1 3-6 0 0
12 49 Miami (FL) ACC 57 58 47th 12-4 0-1 5-3 0 1
12 50 James Madison Sun Belt ↓6 61 76 43rd 15-2 1-0 1-1 0 1
F4O 51 Oregon PAC-12 NEW 50 49 34th 12-3 0-1 3-2 1 0
F4O 52 New Mexico MWC BACK 36 39 40th 14-3 0-2 2-3 0 0
F4O 53 Washington State PAC-12 NEW 52 61 58th 12-5 1-1 3-4 1 0
F4O 54 Providence Big East ↓4 54 45 51st 11-4 0-2 4-4 0 0
N4O 55 Ohio State B1G ↓4 39 34 48th 12-3 1-0 1-3 0 0
N4O 56 Xavier Big East NEW 45 33 86th 8-8 0-5 4-6 2 0
N4O 57 Butler Big East BACK 62 63 61st 11-6 1-3 3-6 0 0
N4O 58 Texas Big XII NEW 59 43 64th 12-4 1-2 2-3 1 0

Seeding by Conference

Big XII: 9 (1, 2, 2, 6, 7, 8, 8, 10, 11)
SEC: 8 (3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 11, 11)
Big Ten: 7 (1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 10)
ACC: 6 (2, 3, 4, 11, 12)
Big East: 6 (1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11)
MWC: 5 (5, 5, 5, 9, 10)
PAC-12: 2 (1, 4)
AAC: 2 (6, 7)