Tennessee Volunteers Vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: Statistic-Based Game Preview

Caveats. This is a long post, so we put the conclusions and predictions at both the beginning and the end. You're not seeing double.

Sketchy Conclusions

• According to the NCAA, Tennessee's current strength of schedule is 23rd, and Mississippi State's is 106th, which seems about right when you note that the Bulldogs' best victories to date are over 1-4 Auburn and 1-5 Kentucky. Don't read too much into that, though, because they're undefeated against their schedule, and Tennessee has lost two games. The Tennessee-Georgia game had about the same disparity in strength of schedules going in. Just saying.
• The Bulldogs' offense is basically just average, but they do well where it matters most: scoring points. Ladarius Perkins is a fine back who is putting up nearly 100 yards per game and ranks 26th in the nation. They don't pass much.
• Their defense, however, is quite good, both against the pass and at limiting points. Two of the Bulldogs' DBs are in the top ten nationally in interceptions, so what Tyler Bray thinks is space might actually be a black hole.
• Based on all of that, it appears that Tennessee's best opportunity to win may be to -- prepare to have your mind blown -- run the ball.

Predictions

• Tennessee 28, Mississippi State 24

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

Jackson St. Tigers	9/1/12	win 56 - 9	coverage
Auburn Tigers	9/8/12	win 28 - 10	coverage
@ Troy Trojans	9/15/12	win 30 - 24	coverage
South Alabama Jaguars	9/22/12	win 30 - 10	coverage
@ Kentucky Wildcats	10/6/12	win 27 - 14	coverage
@ N.C. State Wolfpack	8/31/12	win 35 - 21	coverage
Georgia State Panthers	9/8/12	win 51 - 13	coverage
Florida Gators	9/15/12	loss 20 - 37	coverage
Akron Zips	9/22/12	win 47 - 26	coverage
@ Georgia Bulldogs	9/29/12	loss 44 - 51	coverage

According to the NCAA's "Toughest Schedule" PDF, Tennessee's schedule is currently ranked 23rd and Mississippi State's is ranked 106th. Take that for what it's worth. The the last time we looked at the teams' respective schedules and strength of schedules, Tennessee's was 25th and Georgia's was 115th.

Here are the drive charts from the Bulldogs' two SEC games so far:

Five turnovers did in Auburn, and it looks like the Bulldogs' defense held Kentucky's offense in check. Or maybe it was Kentucky's offense that did that. Let's hope the latter, because the Wildcats didn't get past midfield but twice and some change.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. The numbers say that this is just an average offensive team, perhaps a bit better at the thing that matters most, which is scoring points. They do protect the quarterback extremely well. Combine that with our inability to get to the QB, and we're extremely unlikely to see any sacks this week. But beyond that, there's nothing particularly frightening here, especially considering their strength of schedule.

Defensive observations. Here's where the Bulldogs are good to very good. They're best where it matters most: Scoring Defense. How do they do it? A fairly healthy balance with a bit more weight on the pass defense side of the scale. So we have strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Sort of like we thought against Florida. Gulp. Mississippi State's offense isn't going to turn into Florida's, is it? I'm saying no.

What don't we need to worry about so much? Sacks and tackles for loss, particularly sacks, which we don't allow opponents to do anyway.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Nothing here jumps out at you except the turnover margin, which leads to the age-old question of whether that's effort or luck. It's probably a combination of the two, which means it's partially luck. And luck has a way of running out. We'll see, but we probably ought not to count on it. If I was Sal Sunseri, I'd dial back the aggression on defense and play to keep his guys between the offense and the end zone on this one. Pick your times to be aggressive. Dare I say it? I sort of miss our old friend Prevent.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. The strength of the offense appears to be junior running back Ladarius Perkins, who ranks 26th in the nation in rushing yards. Junior QB Tyler Russell gets it done, and his favorite targets to date are Chad Bumphis and Chris Smith, but those guys are getting only a little over seven catches and 115 yards combined per game.

Defense. Here's where we really need to be concerned. Both senior DBs Darius Slay and Johnthan Banks are interception machines. Both are in the top ten nationally in interceptions, Slay with four for the year and Banks with three for the year. So Bray better be careful throwing the ball this week.

Special teams. Nothing too concerning here.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Mississippi State rush defense	177.40 (#51)	126 (#40)	NC State (114.33) (#24)	191	200
UT pass v. Mississippi State pass defense	329.20 (#10)	199.60 (#31)	Florida/Georgia (180.20/212.33) (#17/#43)	257/281	270
Mississippi State rush v. UT rush defense	186.20 (#86)	179 (#47)	Florida (214.80) (#24)	336	200
Mississippi State pass v. UT pass defense	239.60 (#73)	225.60 (#70)	Georgia (257.50) (#44)	286	230
UT scoring offense v. Mississippi State scoring defense	39.40 (#20)	13.40 (#11)	Florida (11.40) (#6)	20	28
Mississippi State scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	29.60 (#84)	34.20 (#35)	Akron (33.83) (#38)	26	24

Again with the caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations, and this early in the season, the guesses are particularly sketchy. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game.

This week's example: We're putting up about 329 yards through the air on average, and Mississippi State is allowing only about 200. That's about midway between Florida and Georgia, who are allowing 180 and 212 per game. Against those two teams, Tennessee got 257 and 281, so I'm guessing 270 passing yards for Tennessee this week.

So I have 470 total yards for the Vols and 430 yards for the Bulldogs. The score -- 28-24, Vols -- is much closer than I expected it to be, and it's very disconcerting. I'm tempted to gives ours a premium and to discount theirs based on the teams' respective strength of schedules, but the fact is that we've lost two of our games and they're undefeated. After weighing all of that, I want to go 31-24 Tennessee, but I think I'm going to leave it as is and just hope I'm wrong.

Sketchy Conclusions

• According to the NCAA, Tennessee's current strength of schedule is 23rd, and Mississippi State's is 106th, which seems about right when you note that the Bulldogs' best victories to date are over 1-4 Auburn and 1-5 Kentucky. Don't read too much into that, though, because they're undefeated against their schedule, and Tennessee has lost two games. The Tennessee-Georgia game had about the same disparity in strength of schedules going in. Just saying.
• The Bulldogs' offense is basically just average, but they do well where it matters most: scoring points. Ladarius Perkins is a fine back who is putting up nearly 100 yards per game and ranks 26th in the nation. They don't pass much.
• Their defense, however, is quite good, both against the pass and at limiting points. Two of the Bulldogs' DBs are in the top ten nationally in interceptions, so what Tyler Bray thinks is space might actually be a black hole.
• Based on all of that, it appears that Tennessee's best opportunity to win may be to -- prepare to have your mind blown -- run the ball.

Predictions

• Tennessee 28, Mississippi State 24