The Tennessee-Alabama statistical preview is frightening

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts, links to SB Nation game pages, and statistical comparisons. Caveats.

Wait, what did that headline say? That there's a monster at the end of this preview? I hate monsters. So please, stop reading now.

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts

Michigan Wolverines	9/1/12	win 41 - 14	coverage
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	9/8/12	win 35 - 0	coverage
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	9/15/12	win 52 - 0	coverage
Florida Atlantic Owls	9/22/12	win 40 - 7	coverage
Mississippi Rebels	9/29/12	win 33 - 14	coverage
@ Missouri Tigers	10/13/12	win 42 - 10	coverage
@ N.C. State Wolfpack	8/31/12	win 35 - 21	coverage
Georgia State Panthers	9/8/12	win 51 - 13	coverage
Florida Gators	9/15/12	loss 20 - 37	coverage
Akron Zips	9/22/12	win 47 - 26	coverage
@ Georgia Bulldogs	9/29/12	loss 44 - 51	coverage
@ Mississippi St. Bulldogs	10/13/12	loss 31 - 41	coverage

According to the NCAA's "Toughest Schedule" PDF, Tennessee's schedule is currently ranked 14th and Alabama's is 51st. That may be the last thing we're ahead of them in for the rest of this post.

You're still here? Maybe you don't fully understand what I'm saying. If you keep reading, you will eventually get to the end of the preview, and there is a MONSTER at the end of this preview. So STOP.

Here are the drive charts from two of the Tide's SEC games:

YOU'RE STILL HERE? STOP! WALK AWAY FROM YOUR COMPUTER! THERE IS A MONSTER AT THE END OF THIS PREVIEW!

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Really, this isn't all that scary. Maybe you can go ahead. One more paragraph.

Defensive observations. ACK! MONSTER SCAT! Seriously, is that completely and entirely not fair?

So with that, I'm going to put up a brick wall so you HAVE to stop reading.

Special teams and turnovers observations. Nice going, you, getting through that brick wall and everything, but I can't even read that because I'm disoriented from monster stink.

Players to Watch

Offensive Observations. Listen, just because the offensive players for Alabama are merely efficient and not machete-wielding psychopaths doesn't mean that they're not killing machines. You've seen The Terminator, right?

So stop. Please?

Defense. Constellation, that. So many stars that none of them can get the spotlight.

Head to Head Comparisons

Listen, the NEXT section is the end of this preview, and there is a MONSTER at the end of this preview. So don't be a fool. Get up. Walk away. Turn off the computer. However you do it, DON'T KEEP READING.

			Comps	Result Against Comps	Prediction
UT rush v. Alabama rush defense	183.33 (#45)	55.33 (#1)	Florida/NC State (107.50/114.33) (#20/#27)	83/191	70
UT pass v. Alabama pass defense	299 (#22)	125.83 (#1)	Florida/MS St. (189.67/191) (#22/#23)	257/148	150
Alabama rush v. UT rush defense	178.83 (#81)	217.17 (#25)	Georgia/Florida (226.50/233.33) (#19/#14)	274/336	250
Alabama pass v. UT pass defense	251 (#84)	205.83 (#87)	MS St./Florida (239.33/145) (#56/#114)	308/219	250
UT scoring offense v. Alabama scoring defense	38 (#24)	7.5 (#1)	Florida/MS St. (12.33/16.33) (#6/#17)	20/31	13
Alabama scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	31.50 (#90)	40.50 (#17)	Georgia/MS St. (41.33/35.33) (#11/#33)	51/41	45

Again with the caveats: These are informed guesses rather than mathematical calculations. But here's the general analytical framework: We are averaging X in a certain category. The opponent averages Y against that, which is most closely comparable to some identified previous opponent, against whom we did Z. All of that leads to an informed guess labeled as Prediction. And one more time for emphasis: The less data you have, the more sketchy the guess, and the guesses range from ALL CAPS SKETCHY WITH EXCLAMATION POINTS at the beginning of the season to merely lower case sketchy for the last game. We're somewhere in the middle.

So yeah, here's your monster.

But here's where we depart from Grover's telling of the story. Because while the monster is in fact US, we, unlike Grover, are actually kinda frightening, at least our defense is. Not only that, but Elmo's playing the part of Alabama this week, and he's outside the door with a pair of scissors, a roll of duct tape, and bad thoughts.

Semi-Serious but Sketchy Conclusions

• Tennessee's played a tougher schedule than Alabama, so woo for that.
• Alabama's offense is good, but it's not exactly elite. They're top 25 in rushing, but near the cellar in passing. Still, they somehow manage to rank in the top 20 in scoring. Efficiency, that.
• The Tide is off the charts spectacular on defense. First in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense. That's right, 1st. They stink at sacks and tackles for loss, ranking an embarrassing 11th and 33rd. Yes, you just wet yourself.
• Prepare for a frustrating evening when the Vols are on offense, but keep in mind that it's not necessarily our offense, but Alabama's defense. They do that to everybody. Go ahead and blame our defense for what happens to them.
• I have the Tide more than doubling the Vols in yards and winning by more than 30 points.
• But there's a chance. There's always a chance.

Predictions

• Alabama 45, Tennessee 13