Recalibrating expectations for the Vols' remaining games is a two-step process that involves first adjusting for the Vols based on their own performance before adjusting for that of their future opponents. That first step is the more difficult one this week.
On one hand, the team rolled out to a nice lead against Oklahoma and kept it for most of the game. On the other hand, they dropped the pretty shiny fragile thing they'd earned, and it shattered all over the end zone. Even more concerning than just blowing the lead is how it was blown. The offense couldn't score and could barely move the ball for a huge portion of the game. And the defense got tired and couldn't tackle late in the game, and what we thought was the strength of not only the defense but of the team wasn't able to get the quarterback on the ground.
On yet another hand, though, if any one of a dozen things had gone differently, we'd be having an entirely different conversation this morning. Bottom line, the result wasn't unexpected, even if the way it played out was. We expected a close game, and what we got was exactly that, an even matchup between two very good teams with good prospects for good seasons. It's still about the Big 12 for Oklahoma, and it's still about the SEC for the Vols, and if the Vols take care of business in the SEC, we'll be fine.
So what about the rest of the SEC? The good news is that there appears to be even more opportunity in the SEC than we thought after Week One. Arkansas and South Carolina both lost to bad teams, Missouri and Florida struggled for their entire games, and Georgia struggled for a half against Vandy.
All of that has led me to actually adjust almost all expectations upward, at least to a degree. The Vols still have to figure out how to play with a lead and close out big games, but the opportunities are there. Details on each remaining opponent are below, but first, here's the chart:
| PREDICTIONS |
| 5-30 SCALE |
PRESEASON |
W1 |
W2 |
| 5 |
|
|
|
| 6 |
|
|
|
| 7 |
|
Alabama |
Alabama |
| 8 |
Alabama |
|
|
| 9 |
|
|
|
| 10 |
|
Georgia |
|
| 11 |
|
|
Georgia |
| 12 |
Georgia |
|
|
| 13 |
|
Arkansas |
|
| 14 |
|
Oklahoma (L; 31-24 2OT) |
|
| 15 |
Arkansas |
Missouri |
|
| 16 |
Oklahoma |
Florida |
Missouri |
| 17 |
Missouri |
|
Florida |
| 18 |
|
|
Arkansas |
| 19 |
South Carolina |
South Carolina |
|
| 20 |
Florida |
|
|
| 21 |
|
|
|
| 22 |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
Kentucky |
| 23 |
|
|
South Carolina |
| 24 |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilt |
Vanderbilit |
| 25 |
Bowling Green (W; 59-30) |
|
|
| 26 |
|
|
|
| 27 |
|
|
|
| 28 |
North Texas |
North Texas |
North Texas |
| 29 |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina |
Western Carolina |
| 30 |
|
|
|
9/19/15: Western Carolina (1-1, 0-1 Southern, NR)
- W1: Beat Mars Hill, 41-14.
- W2: Lost to The Citadel, 28-10.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs Presbyterian |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Mercer |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Wofford |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs Samford |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Chattanooga |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Furman |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
@ VMI |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Still as close to a Sure Thing as the 5-30 point scale allows. 29.
| PREDICTIONS - WESTERN CAROLINA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 29 |
29 |
29 |
9/26/15: at Florida (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat New Mexico State, 61-13.
- W2: Beat East Carolina, 31-24.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
@ Kentucky |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ #14 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs #9 Georgia* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs FAU |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs #10 FSU |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Now this is more like it. A one-score victory over East Carolina, and it included a pick-six. It's still Florida, and we apparently still have some mental issues to work through, so I'm not moving this too far, but I am moving it up one. 17.
| PREDICTIONS - FLORIDA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 20 |
16 |
17 |
10/3/15: Arkansas (1-1, 0-0 SEC, NR)
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Texas Tech |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Texas A&M* |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ #3 Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs #6 Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UT Martin |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #14 LSU |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Miss St |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
vs #24 Missouri |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): File this in the Things Worse Than Losing in Double Overtime to the Sooners file. This game has been at the bottom of our Coin Flip Games list, meaning the one we were least likely to win. I've moved the whole pile four spots down, and I've moved the Hogs to the top rather than the bottom. Still concerned about these guys, primarily because it seems they lost because they chose to throw rather than run, and they will likely wise up. But Whew Pig Sooie!
| PREDICTIONS - ARKANSAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 15 |
13 |
18 |
10/10/15: Georgia (2-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)
- W1: Beat UL Monroe, 51-14 before the game was called due to a second lightning delay.
- W2: Beat Vanderbilt, 31-14.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs South Carolina |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs Southern |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs #3 Alabama |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs Florida* |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #6 Auburn |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Ga Southern |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ #16 Georgia Tech |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I was going to leave Georgia at 10 until I read this report, which makes it sound like the Bulldogs really struggled for a half and were one-dimensional. Still, one-dimensional with Nick Chubb can beat most teams, especially if you're a team whose pass rush isn't as dominant as you were hoping. So I'm moving them, but only one spot.
| PREDICTIONS - GEORGIA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 12 |
10 |
11 |
10/17/15: Bye
10/24/15: at Alabama (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #2)
- W1: Beat #20 Wisconsin, 35-17.
- W2: Beat MTSU, 37-10.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs UL Monroe |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs #18 Arkansas |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
vs #14 LSU |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charleston So |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ #6 Auburn |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Same old song and dance with these guys. 7.
| PREDICTIONS - ALABAMA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 8 |
7 |
7 |
10/31/15: at Kentucky (2-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat UL-Lafayette, 40-33.
- W2: Beat South Carolina, 26-22.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs E Kentucky |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs #6 Auburn |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Miss St |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Charlotte |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs Louisville |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): So Kentucky won when South Carolina attempted a two-point conversion to tie the game but fumbled the ball to the Wildcats, who returned it for two points of their own. I don't even know what you call that. Regardless, Kentucky broke its 22-game road losing streak, but I think it may say more about the Gamecocks than it does Kentucky, so I'm keeping them right where we had them last week, at 22.
| PREDICTIONS - KENTUCKY |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 22 |
22 |
22 |
11/7/15: South Carolina (1-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Squawked by UNC, 17-13.
- W2: Lost to Kentucky, 26-22.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
vs UCF |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs #14 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
vs Vanderbilt |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs The Citadel |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs #12 Clemson |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): See above. I'm moving the Gamecocks up to 23, between Kentucky and Vandy. Sorry, Steve.
| PREDICTIONS - SOUTH CAROLINA |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 19 |
19 |
23 |
11/14/15: North Texas (0-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)
- W1: DNP.
- W2: Lost to SMU, 31-13.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Rice |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Iowa |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Southern Miss |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Portland State |
| Thu, Oct 15 |
vs W Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Marshall |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
vs UTSA |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ LA Tech |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
vs UTEP |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): No change. 28.
| PREDICTIONS - NORTH TEXAS |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 28 |
28 |
28 |
11/21/15: at Missouri (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #22)
- W1: Beat SE Missouri State, 34-3.
- W2: Beat Arkansas State, 27-20.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs UConn |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ Kentucky |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
vs South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 10 |
vs Florida |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ #9 Georgia |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
@ Vanderbilt |
| Thu, Nov 5 |
vs Miss St |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs BYU* |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs #25 Tennessee |
| Fri, Nov 27 |
@ #18 Arkansas |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): Part of college football is just showing up and surviving in a week like this, as evidenced by the fact that the Tigers beat Arkansas State by one touchdown and climbed two spots in the polls. Part of their struggles, though, were due to the injury to running back Russell Hansbrough, and that appears to be temporary, so although I'm moving them up, it's only one spot to 16. They're now at the bottom of our Coin Flip list.
| PREDICTIONS - MISSOURI |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 17 |
15 |
16 |
11/28/15: Vanderbilt (0-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Lost to Western Kentucky, 14-12.
- W2: Lost to Georgia, 31-14.
| Sat, Sept 19 |
vs Austin Peay |
| Sat, Sept 26 |
@ #17 Ole Miss |
| Sat, Oct 3 |
@ Mid Tennessee |
| Sat, Oct 17 |
@ South Carolina |
| Sat, Oct 24 |
vs #24 Missouri |
| Sat, Oct 31 |
@ Houston |
| Sat, Nov 7 |
@ Florida |
| Sat, Nov 14 |
vs Kentucky |
| Sat, Nov 21 |
vs Texas A&M |
| Sat, Nov 28 |
@ #25 Tennessee |
Chances of a Vols win (on a scale from 5-30): I'm keeping Vandy steady at 24.
| PREDICTIONS - VANDERBILT |
| Preseason |
W1 |
W2 |
| 24 |
24 |
24 |
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